It is believed that China’s air transportation system is already experiencing a recovery from the COVID-19 epidemic. However, there is catch and the Chinese Airliners may not rebound for at least two years. The hopes were rekindled following the reviews of schedule filings that showed that Chinese airlines are adding flights back, even in some regions to as much as 70% of pre-epidemic levels.
Although restoration of capacity toward pre-COVID levels is bring reported, China’s air transportation system is not likely to fully recover for at least another two years. It is based on a number of factors: pre-COVID traffic trends, current economic trends in China, and, importantly, a certain collapse of international leisure traffic, both inbound and outbound. This long-term air service contraction will have impact on the global aviation industry.
There is a lot more to a “rebound” than just schedule filings or restoration of flights in China. The Chinese air transportation system does not have the same market factors or operational drivers as do carriers in the rest of the world, particularly the United States and Europe. In China, many airline decisions are made by government and bureaucratic entities, and not due to careful route analyses.
The upward growth since two decades was about to end. The huge demand generated by an exploding economic base and enhanced disposable income completely leapfrogged most additions to air service. The route planning for Chinese airlines was “schedule it and they’ll fly on it.”
There are many examples of airports seeing double-digit and even triple-digit growth in the past ten years. Daocheng, in western Sichuan province, went from being a brand-new airport in 2013 to handling over 400,000 passengers in 2018.
China’s airports was expected to handle a total of 1.46 billion passenger movements in 2020. Now in post-COVID scenario, the projection is now 945 million, putting China back to traffic levels of five years ago. There will be no rapid rebound – this figure is the new core demand.