The national and provincial governments are poised to have weak coalitions at the helm. These will struggle for credibility amidst PTI’s refrain of a stolen mandate, and may leave tough economic reforms on the backburner, thereby intensifying the existential crisis Pakistan finds itself in
The outcome of recent elections has increased political uncertainties in Pakistan. The elections resulted in Independent candidates supporting Imran Khan winning 92 seats (Total number of Independents 101). This exceeded the tally of PML-N (79) and PPP (54) seats. No party secured a simple majority. A coalition government has been announced headed by Shehbaz Sharif. This includes PML(N), PPP, MQM, and smaller parties. While they would be able to muster a majority, it would be a weak coalition. Its legitimacy is questioned by PTI, which termed it a ‘stolen mandate’.
Most commentators had written off Imran Khan after the Army crackdown on his party following the events of May 9 when his supporters ransacked the Lahore Corps Commander’s residence and attacked Army GHQ in Rawalpindi. PTI was not allowed to contest under its election symbol bat.
Unwieldy Coalitions Ahead
Is this a vote for Imran Khan or a vote against the Army? The economic distress with inflation running at above 35 percent was bound to generate a backlash against the incumbent government. By forcing Imran out of power, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) incurred the political costs of incumbency though they got an Army Chief of their choice. General Asim Munir’s term runs out in November 2025. Till then, the dispensation headed by Shehbaz Sharif will have political insurance.
There are no winners. In the short run, the Army has won. A weak government offers no challenge to the Army’s growing role in the country. Both Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan are sidelined. However, the Army’s legitimacy and the authority of its chief are dented by Imran’s supporters getting the highest number of seats. Nawaz Sharif was not able to neutralise Imran’s appeal in Punjab and had to bow out. PML(N) is reduced to the status of a regional party.
The formation of governments in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, where Imran has his support base, will be critical. Punjab accounts for 60 percent of Pakistan’s population. Nawaz Sharif has managed to secure the agreement of coalition partners for the Chief Ministership of Punjab for his daughter Maryam Aurangzeb. Though PML(N) will form the government, its support base is divided. Imran Khan’s independents got 127 seats as against 132 seats won by PML (N) with the total strength of the Assembly being 297.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is a border state with the growing influence of TTP (Tehriq-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan). It is also the home base of Imran Khan. The Independents allied to PTI have secured absolute majority in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa winning 83 out of 105 seats. Imran is often called Taliban Khan. He opposed military operations against the Taliban in the past. With the breakdown of relations between the Kabul regime and Islamabad, and Imran Khan in opposition, this province could become a flash-point for a major upsurge in violence. Imran Khan has nominated Sardar Ali Amin Gandapur for the post of KP Chief Minister. If the Army allows Imran Khan’s independents to form a government, the latter will be emboldened. If his supporters are kept out of power, there will be violence.
Weakening Army, Economy, Government
Political uncertainties resulted in Pakistan’s stock market losing over a trillion rupees in valuation after the election results were declared. Pakistan has been unable to access $ 6.1 billion of commercial loans, which were included in the current year’s budget due to the Moody’s downgrade of its rating. In the absence of external financing, Pakistan has increased domestic borrowing which has gone up by 90 percent in just the first half of the current year as compared to the corresponding period last year.
What explains Imran Khan’s hold on the Pakistani electorate? With his rhetoric of social justice and piety, he has successfully tapped into the collective psyche of a country with growing inequalities and fundamentalism. The challenge for Pakistan is to mend its economy. This is not the Army’s forte, which appropriates a disproportionate share of the country’s budget.
In the current year’s budget, the defence budget as a percentage of Federal revenue is 33.39 percent. The Stand-By Arrangement under which IMF extended $3 billion assistance will expire in April. Pakistan needs $22 billion in external financing in the current financial year. IMF will insist upon structural reforms. Will a weak government be able to carry them out? With a fractured mandate, no political party in Pakistan can take any meaningful initiative either on Kashmir or MFN status for India.