As if Pakistan’s government wasn’t under pressure enough – with thousands of protesters on the streets and the capital Islamabad in lockdown amid calls to release former prime minister Imran Khan – relations with neighbouring China are also going from bad to worse.
Beijing’s growing anger over the safety of its citizens in Pakistan has been illustrated by a surprising diplomatic spat. “It is unacceptable for us to be attacked twice in only six months,” declared China’s ambassador in Islamabad Jiang Zaidong in an unusually direct response to comments made by a senior Pakistan politician seen to be downplaying the risk. “President Xi [Jinping] cares about Chinese people’s security and puts people’s lives first,” Jiang went on to say. “He especially cares about the security of the Chinese people in Pakistan.”
Tension has been growing after a string of attacks seen to be targeting Chinese nationals, particularly in Balochistan, the restive southwestern province, and elsewhere, too. Pakistani officials described the ambassador’s comments as perplexing, given the positive diplomatic relations between both countries. Yet it was also the first time Pakistan and China have publicly exchanged blame, a significant departure from their usual polite diplomatic exchanges, at least those in public.
The prospect of Chinese “boots on the ground” is politically sensitive.
An attack in the north of Pakistan left five Chinese engineers dead in March. Another attack killed two Chinese nationals working for a power company in the port town of Karachi in October, with a further two Chinese workers injured in a shooting in November. Yet China has been asking for stronger security measures for its nationals in Pakistan since at least 2022 as attacks continued to mount. The public outburst by China’s ambassador is illustrative of frustration at Pakistan’s failure to protect Chinese nationals.
But Pakistan’s reaction was baffling. As the junior partner, and in need of support from China for its economy, military and diplomacy, Pakistan still chose to react to the ambassador. This might be a sign of annoyance after China aggressively pushed to allow Chinese security personnel to guard Chinese nationals in Pakistan. When this demand was rejected by Pakistan, China sought to form joint security companies, where Chinese along with Pakistani personnel would protect Chinese nationals working in Pakistan. But the prospect of Chinese “boots on the ground” is politically sensitive.
The standoff has economic consequences. China is stalling funding for the first phase of the ML-1 railway project, a $6.8 billion project to upgrade railway tracks in Pakistan. Pakistan can expect more delays until making a major concession to China on security. The mood could also sour Pakistan’s request to China to reprofile power debt worth $15 billion in July, where it is still waiting on an answer. This delay will hurt the balance of payment situation in Pakistan, which must repay $100 billion in external debt in the next four years.
Ultimately, there is a limit to which China will tolerate losing its nationals in Pakistan, and it’s clear that a threshold is being reached. If Pakistan doesn’t improve the security situation it seems likely Beijing will move to disengage with Islamabad, which would carry significant consequences for CPEC, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a $50 billion component of the Belt and Road Initiative.