China has been a major financier of African infrastructure over the past two decades, supporting large-scale projects in sectors such as hydropower, mining and rail. But this role is changing.
As bilateral lending declines and the Belt and Road Initiative shifts towards a ‘small and beautiful’ approach, China’s infrastructure finance is increasingly shaped by new priorities – including digital and green technologies – and a more competitive global landscape.
This paper takes a retrospective view of China’s infrastructure finance in Africa to draw policy lessons for today’s infrastructure investors. Using case studies across hydropower, rail, digital and renewable energy in Angola, Ethiopia, Guinea, Kenya and Zambia, it examines both the development impacts of Chinese-financed projects and the challenges they face in difficult macroeconomic, financial and governance contexts.
The findings offer practical lessons for host governments and for Chinese and other partners investing in high risk–high return markets.