Kedia Advisory – Gold slipped 0.73% to settle at 154,760, weighed down by profit-taking and thin volumes, as U.S. and Chinese markets remained closed. Traders stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s March 18 meeting. While Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated rates could eventually move lower, he acknowledged that services inflation remains sticky. U.S. CPI rose 0.2% in January, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may hold rates steady for now, even as markets price in 75 basis points of cuts later this year, with the first likely in July.
Geopolitical tensions offered underlying support, with reports suggesting the U.S. military is preparing for a potential prolonged operation against Iran if authorised. Meanwhile, ANZ raised its second-quarter gold forecast to $5,800 per ounce, citing persistent global uncertainties. Physical markets showed mixed trends. In India, gold traded at discounts of up to $12 per ounce as high prices curbed demand, while China saw steady buying ahead of the Lunar New Year. According to the China Gold Association, China’s total gold output rose 3.35% in 2025, while ETF holdings surged sharply.
Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 2.6% and prices falling ₹1,135. Support is seen at 153,940, with further downside toward 153,120. Resistance stands at 155,565, and a rebound could test 156,370.
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