Disruption to the upward trend
- From 2010 to 2019 the number of outbound Chinese students grew at an average annual rate of 9.5%, making the country the biggest source of international students globally. However, this rapid growth was disrupted by the pandemic that emerged in 2020. The virus (and China’s subsequent restrictive policy) caused profound damage to the country’s student mobility. The number of outbound students plummeted by 36% year on year in 2020, according to a report by the Centre for China and Globalisation (CCG), a think‑tank.
- Although the number of outbound students has been climbing after the initial hit from the pandemic, it remains well below the potential trend that would have manifested had the pandemic not occurred. In the meantime, the picture of overall international study is increasingly shaped by the challenges that China faces in the course of development, which include the country’s slowing pace of economic growth, a more unfavourable demographic structure and evolving complexity in China’s relationship with other countries.
- EIU believes that all of these factors will significantly affect China’s outbound study market, leading to much slower growth in the overall number of outbound students. It is crucial for countries with large exposure to education revenue from international Chinese students to be aware of and to prepare for the upcoming challenges.