Is India last lifeline for China’s sinking economy? Why the Dragon’s eyes are locked on Delhi

Recent data shows growing pressure on China’s economy. Factory activity has slowed, the property sector is weak and export-focussed companies face trade barriers in developed markets. Because of this, many companies are looking outside China to expand and maintain stable earnings.

China’s economic slowdown has begun to influence its outward investment plans, with India emerging as a potential destination for fresh capital flows. Several Chinese companies are exploring opportunities in the Indian market as domestic growth loses pace and external trade conditions become more restrictive.

Recent data shows growing pressure on China’s economy. Factory activity has slowed, the property sector is weak and export-focussed companies face trade barriers in developed markets. Because of this, many companies are looking outside China to expand and maintain stable earnings.

Economic assessments from within China have reinforced this change. Economist Zhou Tianyong has projected that growth could slow to around 2.5 percent in the coming years if structural reforms and productivity gains do not materialise. Consumption recovery is uneven. Sustaining growth above 4 percent may prove difficult under present conditions.

GDP projections have also softened. Recent estimates have fallen below earlier benchmarks and long-term targets linked to income expansion goals. Quarterly growth in the last phase of the previous year declined to multi-year lows. It shows weak domestic demand and continued stress in real estate.

Against this backdrop, India has drawn attention as an investment destination. Its large consumer base, expanding manufacturing sector and incentive-driven production policies offer scale and growth visibility. Chinese firms in electronics, automobiles and industrial equipment are assessing entry or expansion strategies within this system.

India’s market size is a major attraction for consumer technology brands and electric vehicle manufacturers.

Policy discussions in New Delhi may further influence this trend. The government is reviewing foreign investment rules introduced in 2020 that required prior approval for investments from neighbouring countries that share land borders with India. Officials are also considering allowing smaller investments through an automatic approval route within a fixed limit.

Industry bodies have also advocated calibrated engagement. Domestic electronics manufacturers have proposed joint ventures with Chinese firms, suggesting equity caps to maintain ownership balance while gaining access to capital, technology and supply networks.

The direction of policy changes, if implemented, will determine the scale of Chinese investment into India. Economic compulsions in China and manufacturing ambitions in India continue to drive this evolving investment dynamic.