It could be more expensive to take the bus or train in future if telecommuting becomes the norm in the long term, even after the COVID-19 pandemic dies down, says experts.
“Lower ridership means a drop in fare revenues for operators. They may eventually have to adjust fares or rely on more government subsidies to ensure that public transport continues running,” they said.
The issue of costs and funding would also “depend critically” on how long safe distancing measures would be implemented on buses and trains, said Associate Professor Theseira, who heads the Singapore University of Social Science’s master of urban transport management programme.
“What is affecting financing is safe distancing, because it forces us to operate a full schedule of services but with very low ridership per service run,” he said. “There is no way for any public transport system to break even with low ridership on board each vehicle.”
In May, Transport Minister Khaw Boon Wan had said that fare revenues have dropped by about 80 per cent during the COVID-19 pandemic, putting transport operators under “significant financial stress”.
He noted that even as ridership has fallen, public transport operators have had to spend on additional cleaning and on deploying people to ensure safe distancing.
Additional costs incurred by operators are not “adequately covered” by current fares and will “eventually have to be borne by operators and taxpayers”, Khaw added.
Transport engineering consultant Gopinath Menon said that public transport operators will have to cover some of the shortfall on their own and depend on more subsidies from the Government for the time being.
“Fares may need to eventually rise so that the commuters also contribute their share instead of just the public transport operators and the Government,” he said.
In the longer term, however, changes may have to be made to the pricing policy.
“We have to look at a combination of pricing policy – not so much fare increases, but perhaps trying to spread out travel more – and perhaps other means of cost recovery such as earmarked taxes or charges,” said Professor Theseira.
“For example, public transport in many cities is financed specifically from local taxes from businesses that benefit the most from public transport connectivity, such as those within some distance of train stations,” he pointed out.
Experts note that measures to prevent crowding on buses and trains may be challenging to enforce after the circuit breaker period ends on June 1.
That is why it is compulsory for commuters to wear masks.
Other ways to prevent the spread of COVID-19 on public transport could include the regular testing of frontline workers such as drivers, as well as increasing the frequency of buses and trains, although Professor Teo Yik Ying, dean of the National University of Singapore’s Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health noted that this would increase operating costs substantially.
Transport consultant Mr Menon, on the other hand, believes the coronavirus outbreak is an “opportune time” to review Singapore’s overall transport policies.
“Such a review should consider the provision of additional bus lanes and cycling lanes, and taking away lanes for motor vehicles”, he added.
“Otherwise, we go back to the old system where the cars still dominate, with nothing having been changed, and the pollution levels return.”
In the longer term, Mr Menon hopes concerns over COVID-19 will also lead to greater decentralization in urban planning – so people will be able to travel shorter distances for work and leisure – in addition to telecommuting and more flexible work arrangements.