Many governments in Asia remain ambivalent about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Japan, in contrast, has been full-throated in its support for the besieged country. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has applauded Tokyo, telling the Japan’s Parliament that “You were the first in Asia to put real pressure on Russia to restore peace.” Tokyo should use its influence and its political capital to persuade countries sitting on the fence to join it and support a global order that is under attack.
There are multiple reasons that governments in Asia and elsewhere have refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For some, there is anxiety about taking sides in a geopolitical contest between the West and Moscow (and China). There are doubts about the degree to which Western positions reflect Asian values and interests. And, on a more banal but perhaps most important level, there are concerns about jeopardizing access to Russia arms or energy exports.
Japan enjoys great credibility in Asia and might be able to convince those governments to change their policies. Polls regularly show that Tokyo is the most trusted external partner among Asian elites. This is the product of concerted efforts by Japanese politicians to cultivate regional partners.
Southeast Asia is at the core of the vision of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” that has guided Japanese foreign policy for a decade. Southeast Asian governments’ support is seen to be critical in the geopolitical competition with China, and Japan’s prime ministers have made those capitals priority destinations as they woo their counterparts and their publics.
While an ally of the United States and the only non-Western member of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations, Japan has nevertheless retained its own perspective on global issues and acts to protect its national interests and values. It is by no means a Western or U.S. puppet.
This history and standing well positions the government of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to lead efforts to win over regional governments to oppose the invasion of Ukraine and support the rules-based order. Kishida has taken up that challenge.
Last month, the prime minister visited India and Cambodia in an effort to do just that. India abstained last month in the United Nations General Assembly vote to condemn the invasion. After meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi, the two men decried the use of force to resolve international disputes, agreed that the war in Ukraine must be resolved on the basis of international law and urged an “immediate cessation of violence.” Modi refused, however, to specifically condemn Russia for its actions.
Moving Delhi was always going to be a difficult, if not impossible, assignment. We hope, however, that Kishida forcefully distinguished between a refusal to condemn Russia and enabling Moscow, by, for example, setting up oil payment mechanisms that sidestep the international sanctions regimes designed to punish Russia for invading a neighbor.
From India, Kishida went to Cambodia, this year’s ASEAN chair. Cambodia has deep ties with Russia and is often charged with carrying China’s water in Southeast Asia’s regional councils. He and Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Sen released a joint statement that condemned Russia’s aggression and called for “an immediate stop of the use of force and the withdrawal of the military forces from the territory of Ukraine,” demands that were more forceful than many expected.
Kishida is reported to be considering trips to Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam during the Golden Week holiday to continue those overtures and try to forge a more united response to the invasion. Kishida should make clear Japan’s willingness to work closely with Indonesia, the largest country in the region and chair of the Group of 20 this year, and Thailand, host of the 2022 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting. Japan should coordinate with those governments (and others, including Cambodia, which will host the ASEAN dialogue partners meetings) to help undercut Moscow’s efforts to punish countries that back international censure and sanctions.
If Russian President Vladimir Putin (or any other senior Russian official) attends those meetings, then it must be made clear that business as usual is impossible and they must be told in unequivocal terms that the invasion must end, the damage undone and the rule of law respected.
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi is slated to go to Central Asia over the Golden Week break. He is reportedly going to visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and in June, he is scheduled to host a meeting of their foreign ministers as well as those of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
While the key topic in all those discussions is going to be China and its influence in Central Asia, Hayashi should also push them to stand up for the rule of law. Those governments will be sensitive — and perhaps even receptive — to that approach, although they will be very careful how they respond.
Hayashi sent a similar message to Philippine counterparts during the first ever Japan-Philippine meeting of foreign and defense ministers, the so-called two-plus-two meeting, held earlier this month in Tokyo. The four officials agreed that the invasion of Ukraine “constitutes a serious violation of international law” and “jeopardizes the foundation of the international order which does not accept any unilateral change of the internationally recognized borders through the use of force … .”
Japan must challenge the narrowly framed realism that guides decision making in Asian capitals. To be honest, Tokyo has been seduced by that thinking as well. Prime Minister Kishida, Foreign Minister Hayashi and other politicians must strive to convince regional counterparts that they cannot be passive or look away as the rules-based order comes under attack. Japan must help Asian countries recognize their stake in a world that is regulated by law, not the exercise of raw power.
The Japan Times Editorial Board