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China was previously severely impacted by Trump’s tariffs, but this time it’s ready
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China was previously severely impacted by Trump’s tariffs, but this time it’s ready

A hiss and puff of compressed air shapes the smooth leather, bringing to life an all-American cowboy boot in a factory on China's eastern coast. Then comes another one as the assembly line continues, the sounds of sewing, stitching, cutting and soldering echoing off the high ceilings. "We used to sell around a million pairs of boots a year," says the 45-year-old sales manager, Mr Peng, who did not wish to reveal his first name. That is, until Donald Trump came along. A slew of tariffs in his first presidential term triggered a trade war between the world's two largest economies. Six years on, Chinese businesses are bracing themselves for a sequel now that he is back in the White House. "What direction should we take in the future?" Mr Peng asks, uncertain of what Trump 2.0 ...
Trump’s tariffs may have a significant impact on Canada and Mexico, but China seems ready.
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Trump’s tariffs may have a significant impact on Canada and Mexico, but China seems ready.

Analysts expect the U.S. President’s 25% across-the-board tariffs on Canada and Mexico will hit the automobile and electronics sectors hard; they also reckon while the additional tariff on China may not have a major impact on its economy, it may herald the opening salvo of another trade warU.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs — 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% on goods from China — are set to roil supply chains for products ranging from automobiles to avocados — with industries girding for cost increases. U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico covered nearly $900 billion in goods as of 2023, and supply lines between the three North American neighbours — who share a trade agreement — are deeply integrated. Fresh tariffs would pose complications for bus...
ASEAN’s reaction to the economic tsunami in China caused by Trump
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ASEAN’s reaction to the economic tsunami in China caused by Trump

Southeast Asia is predicted to be overwhelmed with an influx of inexpensive Chinese goods due to potential US tariffs on Chinese imports. To counteract this, Southeast Asian nations need to develop a collective response, utilise available trade tools and institutions and engage in dialogue with China to lay out legitimate safeguards and enduring solutions to avoid an escalation of protectionist measures. Southeast Asian domestic markets are about to be hit by a tsunami of cheap Chinese goods, unable to enter the United States if US President Donald Trump follows through on his promise of 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese imports. US tariffs on Southeast Asian goods as part of Trump’s blanket 10 to 20 per cent tariffs on all imports will just compound the challenge. This prospect de...
Why Trump’s tariffs will be “extremely detrimental to both the United States and the world”
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Why Trump’s tariffs will be “extremely detrimental to both the United States and the world”

As Donald Trump threatens to slap steep tariffs on many countries, he is boasting that his taxes on imports will be a boon to the US economy, but most economists strongly disagree – many say Trump’s tariffs will increase inflation, slow economic growth, hurt US workers and result in American consumers footing the bill for his tariffs. “Virtually all economists think that the impact of the tariffs will be very bad for America and for the world,” said Joseph Stiglitz, an economics professor at Columbia University and a winner of the Nobel prize in economic sciences. “They will almost surely be inflationary.” On inauguration day, Trump threatened to impose a 25% across-the-board tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico on 1 February “because”, he said, “they’re allowing vast number...
Although consumer spending has increased, US economic growth has slowed.
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Although consumer spending has increased, US economic growth has slowed.

Economic growth in the US slowed at the end of last year, as trade and investment declined and the country was hit by hurricanes and labour strikes. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.3% between October and December, down from 3.1% in the three months before, according to the US Commerce Department. The pace, fuelled by solid growth in consumer spending, was nevertheless weaker than economists had forecast. The figures come amid heightened uncertainty about the path for the world's largest economy, as US President Donald Trump calls for a policy shake-up. His plans include big cuts to government spending and implementing trade tariffs, which could be announced this week. The US economy had been forecast to expand at roughly 2.5% in the final three months of 2024 th...
Despite fourth-quarter growth being moderate, the US economy is resilient.
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Despite fourth-quarter growth being moderate, the US economy is resilient.

U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter as a strike at Boeing (BA.N), opens new tab depressed business investment in equipment, but consumer spending increased at its fastest pace in nearly two years, underscoring strong domestic demand that probably keeps the Federal Reserve on a slow interest rate cut path this year.The moderation in growth last quarter reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday was also because businesses struggled to keep up with the surge in demand, partly driven by households preemptively buying goods ahead of tariffs on imports that have been promised by President Donald Trump.Inventories at businesses were almost depleted. There was a surprise decline in imports, despite imports helping to boost the goods trade deficit to a record high in December, ...
Wall Street jumps on signals US economy is doing just fine
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Wall Street jumps on signals US economy is doing just fine

Stocks rose on signals the main engine of the world’s largest economy remains solid, which bodes well for the strength of Corporate America. About 410 shares in the S&P 500 advanced after upbeat outlooks from industry heavyweights like Tesla Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and International Business Machines Corp. Traders are now eagerly awaiting Apple Inc.’s results due after the closing bell. While the majority of companies have so far exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, disappointing forecasts have been met with selloffs, with Microsoft Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc. being the latest examples. The US economy expanded at a strong pace at the end of 2024, more than offsetting drags from a strike at Boeing Co. and much leaner inventory investment. Consumer spending, which compr...
Because Americans are still spending, the U.S. economy is still doing well.
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Because Americans are still spending, the U.S. economy is still doing well.

Consumer spending kept the U.S. economy humming in the final months of 2024. The nation's gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.3% in October, November and December, according to a report from the Commerce Department Thursday. That's down slightly from the previous quarter when GDP grew at a 3.1% annual pace. Consumers ramped up their spending in the final months of the year, opening their wallets for both goods and services. Spending on big-ticket items jumped at an annual rate of more than 12%, which may have been driven partly by a desire to buy before any of the new tariffs threatened by President Trump kick in. "The consumer is driving the economic train," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "The economy is creating a boatload of jobs and unem...
By 2024, the US economy will have grown its GDP by 2.3% due to consumer resilience.
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By 2024, the US economy will have grown its GDP by 2.3% due to consumer resilience.

The US economy expanded at a solid pace at the end of 2024, fueled by a generous tailwind from consumer spending that more than offset drags from a strike at Boeing Co. and much leaner inventory investment. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased an annualized 2.3% in the fourth quarter after rising 3.1% in the prior three-month period, according to the government’s initial estimate published Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 2.6% growth. Consumer spending, which comprises the largest share of economic activity, advanced at a 4.2% pace — the first time since late 2021 that outlays have exceeded 3% in consecutive quarters. The acceleration was led by a pickup in motor vehicle sales. At the same time, a closely watched measur...
Rates Spark: The Trump administration is now a reality
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Rates Spark: The Trump administration is now a reality

Markets may have “bought” the rumour and will proceed to “sell” the fact now that Trump's inauguration is a done deal. Even if UST yields come down, we still see structurally higher US rates. On his first day of his second term as US President, Trump declared energy and border security emergencies, but has not enacted tariffs – yet. EUR rates reacted with mild relief, but the ECB will still tread cautiously Markets may "sell" the fact, but we still see structurally higher US rates With US President Donald Trump officially back in office, the question is whether markets bought the rumours but will sell the facts. The month leading up to Trump’s election in November also saw a significant rally in UST yields, but that move faded in the weeks thereafter. Similarly, rates ...