USA

<strong>China is looking all set for a recession</strong>
China, USA, World

China is looking all set for a recession

Ray Dalio the owner of American investment management firm, Bridgewater Associates which helps top investors worldwide to grow their money, in a recent interview with Bloomberg television, said that he had sold most of the investments in China. He warned that China was facing serious economic problems. “You have an environment in China which is changing and becoming a more difficult environment,” Dalio said. The trouble is evident in the stock market. The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index is on a free fall for more than two years. Investors both foreign and domestic are divesting investments to stop loss. Foreign investors are going to other emerging markets. Chinese nationals are holding on cash or buying gold coins and bars to prevent further erosion of personal wealth. “The...
US Economic Projection
Market, USA

US Economic Projection

The Q3 2024 forecast indicates how robust consumer spending, high business investment, and lower interest rates have kept optimism about the US economy intact. However, risks like geopolitical tensions and persistently high inflation remain. Despite persistent concerns surrounding the durability of growth and interest rate policy, the US economy remains fundamentally strong. While real gross domestic product growth slowed in the first quarter of this year, growth rebounded to a strong 3.0% in the second quarter. All available evidence suggests policymakers may have managed to bring inflation under control without causing a recession. Deloitte’s baseline scenario remains relatively positive. The boom in factory construction will continue to boost the economy’s potential in the coming...
The number of employment added in the United States fell substantially in the year ended March.
USA, World

The number of employment added in the United States fell substantially in the year ended March.

The United States economy added 818,000 fewer jobs from April 2023 through March this year than were originally reported, the government says. The revised total adds to evidence that the job market has been steadily slowing and likely reinforces the US Federal Reserve’s plan to start cutting interest rates soon. The Department of Labor estimated that job growth averaged 174,000 a month in the year that ended in March — a drop of 68,000 a month from the 242,000 that were initially reported. The revisions released Wednesday were preliminary with final numbers to be issued in February. The downgraded estimate follows a jobs report for July that was much worse than expected, leading many economists to suggest that the Federal Reserve had waited too long to begin cutting interest rates t...
USA, World

Unprecedented Canadian rail strikes might have a severe impact on the United States economy.

Something happening more than a thousand miles away could have some interesting impacts on North Texas. In the early hours of Thursday, freight traffic on Canada's two largest railways came to a stop for the first time ever. The U.S. and Canadian chambers of commerce have warned that the rail stoppage could have a "significant impact" on their economies, and experts in the states believe it could also significantly affect the U.S. supply chain. “The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Canadian Chamber of Commerce are calling on the Government of Canada to immediately intervene to avert a disruption in the Canadian rail network. A stoppage of rail service will be devastating to Canadian businesses and families and impose significant impacts on the U.S. economy,” the groups said in a st...
Is the United States destined for a recession?
USA

Is the United States destined for a recession?

The unexpected rise in the unemployment rate in the United States has left economists divided: Is the US on the brink of a recession or not? The unemployment rate jumped to a nearly three-year high of 4.3 percent in July, as per data released Friday. The increase – up from 4.1 percent in June, and up from a five-decade low of 3.4 percent in April last year – sets the stage, more than ever, for a cut in interest rates in the next Federal Reserve meeting in September. The jump in the unemployment rate “points to a recession in 2025”, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Al Jazeera. “I’m expecting the [US] Fed to start cutting the policy rate in September, and to continue cutting in subsequent meetings. That response...
The judgment is still out on whether the US yield curve indicates a recession.
USA

The judgment is still out on whether the US yield curve indicates a recession.

NEW YORK, July 29 (Reuters) - The longest and deepest U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion in history, a key bond market signal of an upcoming recession, could be nearing its end. While an inverted curve has typically preceded a recession, this time there is debate about the predictive power of the curve, with optimism that the U.S. could escape prolonged economic pain. Some indicators in recent weeks have pointed to a slowdown, but growth remains strong thanks to a resilient labor market. "I'm not looking at it as recessionary as of now, I think it's a very different time," said Phil Blancato, chief market strategist at Osaic. Investors observe the shape of the Treasury yield curve - which plots the yields of all Treasury securities - because it reveals market expectati...
<strong>EU, US retaliate against Chinese attempts to dump electrical vehicles</strong>
China, USA

EU, US retaliate against Chinese attempts to dump electrical vehicles

The move of the European Union to impose duties of up to 87.6 percent on import of electrical vehicles made in China has thwarted the plan of Beijing to flood the markets in Europe with cheap electrical vehicles manufactured with subsidy from the state. Studies have found that China has been using subsidies extensively to take a leading role in the global markets for green-tech products such as battery electoral vehicles and wind turbines. The World Trade Organization has stipulated under the WTO Subsidies Agreement that: “A subsidy granted by a WTO member government is prohibited by the Subsidies Agreement if it is contingent, in law or in fact, on export performance, or on the use of domestic over imported goods. Those prohibited subsidies are commonly referred to as export subsidies...
<strong>Yuan’s downward spiral against dollar continues</strong>
Asia, China, USA

Yuan’s downward spiral against dollar continues

In the last week of June, the offshore yuan experienced a significant drop against the U.S. dollar, reaching a seven-month low of 7.27:1. This depreciation of China's currency was influenced by several factors, as suggested by market analysts. One of the contributing factors was the lower-than-anticipated spot fixing rate established by the People's Bank of China (PBOC). This led to speculation that Chinese authorities might permit further depreciation of the yuan. As a result, the yuan has seen a decline of over 2 percent against the dollar since the beginning of the year. There's been a noticeable shift in the pattern of foreign investment in China's mainland stock market. Instead of buying, organizations are now selling. In June alone, approximately 33 billion yuan ($4.54 billion...
<strong>CHINESE CHIP PRODUCTION AT RISK AS EQUIPMENT BAN LOOMS</strong>
Asia, China, Market, USA

CHINESE CHIP PRODUCTION AT RISK AS EQUIPMENT BAN LOOMS

The United States is intensifying its measures to restrict China's access to cutting-edge chip technologies capable of manufacturing gate-all-around (GAA) transistors and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. ChangXin Memory Technologies Inc (CXMT), a Hefei-based company that manufactures DRAM for computer servers and smart vehicles, is likely to be a significant focus of Washington's potential restrictions, as per media reports. Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron are among the major competitors of CXMT. Alan Estevez, who heads the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) at the US Commerce Department, recently embarked on a trip to the Netherlands. The purpose of his visit, as reported by Reuters on Tuesday, was to discuss the inclusion of an additional 11 Chinese chip manufacturi...
<strong>The chip war is stealing the residual thunder from the Chinese economy</strong>
China, USA

The chip war is stealing the residual thunder from the Chinese economy

The Chinese economy is in the doldrums. The post-pandemic bounce back was too brief to sustain. Consumer sentiments are low. The common Chinese are investing in gold instead of stocks and other financial instruments in an apparent show of distrust in the country’s economic trajectory. Beijing reported 5.2% growth in 2023 but the Rhodium Group analysts questioned the credibility of the numbers. Rhodium offers China-specific research. On top of all, China’s plan to be a technology superpower is seriously harmed by tough restrictions imposed by the US-led West in denying Beijing access to cutting-edge microchip technology. Microchips are the nerve centre of any modern machinery. From mobile phones, and automobiles to aeroplanes everything runs on those printed circuits on a small piece of...