With main opposition candidate Yoon Suk-yeol elected South Korea’s next president, the country’s relations with Japan are likely to improve once their long-stalled communications finally get rolling, but wartime history issues are likely to continue weighing on them, according to foreign policy experts.
Given Yoon’s call for improved ties with Japan and the United States and the security dynamics sparked by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, he has been seen as a more favorable pick for Tokyo than ruling party hopeful Lee Jae-myung, who was seen as inheriting South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s policy emphasis on North Korea.
Yoon of the conservative People Power Party has said he would visit Japan second after the United States once he becomes president, and resume so-called shuttle diplomacy with Tokyo with leaders making reciprocal visits — a practice stalled since 2011.
“When it comes to foreign and security issues, it is obvious that Japan holds more visions in common with Mr. Yoon than Mr. Lee” of the ruling liberal Democratic Party, said Yuki Asaba, a professor of Korean Studies at Doshisha University.
Tokyo and Seoul may reaffirm that they are “important neighbors sharing fundamental values and strategic interests” as they had in the past, Asaba said.
However, he added that Yoon’s willingness to work with Japan does not mean he will compromise on disputes over wartime history and a pair of South Korean-controlled islets in the Sea of Japan — issues that have sunk bilateral ties to the worst level in decades.
With those contentious issues in mind, analysts believe Yoon will not overlook the fact that a Russian military plane violated the airspace over the disputed islets, and that Chinese and Russian navy vessels traveled around the Japanese archipelago, apparently taking advantage of diplomatic rifts between the two neighbors.
“Russia and China have been creating a fait accompli by taking advantage of deterioration in trilateral security cooperation involving Japan, the United States and South Korea,” said Kohtaro Ito, a senior research fellow at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, a Tokyo think tank.
“I would assume Mr. Yoon thinks such a situation is not favorable for South Korea and East Asia,” said Ito, an expert in South Korean diplomacy.
Ito cited simmering tensions over the Taiwan Strait as yet another factor in making Yoon think South Korea can no longer leave its relationship with Japan as it is.
Tokyo-Seoul ties have deteriorated under Moon after he effectively nullified a 2015 agreement his predecessor Park Geun-hye’s administration struck with then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government to “finally and irreversibly” resolve the issue of “comfort women.”
The term refers to those who suffered under Japan’s military brothel system before and during World War II.
Bilateral ties further worsened after South Korea’s top court in 2018 ordered two Japanese companies to pay compensation to requisitioned Korean workers.
Yoon Seok-youl of South Korea’s main opposition People Power Party has said he would visit Japan second after the United States once he becomes president and resume so-called shuttle diplomacy with Tokyo. | POOL / VIA KYODO
Japan has dismissed the ruling as a violation of international law, but liquidation of assets the companies hold in South Korea is nearing, with some such moves possibly starting this year.
Likening the liquidations to a “time bomb” set to explode in a series, Asaba suggested that Yoon — who will be sworn in in May — and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida should sign at an early date agreements on areas where they can cooperate so they can minimize damage even if liquidation of the first batch of Japanese-held assets was to be enforced.
“The two should affirm at an early stage that they will work together in future-oriented areas without going back to the past even if the bomb were to explode,” he said.
Among options for agreements are how to denuclearize North Korea, Japan’s push for South Korea joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and “the Quad” framework involving Japan, the United States, Australia and India, as well as restoring visa-free exchanges once the coronavirus pandemic calms down, according to Asaba.
The scholar also said Japan has an option of lifting export controls on semiconductor-related materials to South Korea as a “goodwill gesture.”
The export restriction was imposed in 2019, seen as retaliation for the Moon administration’s handling of the issue involving wartime Korean workers.
Still, there is a technical problem on South Korea’s side, with the Democratic Party dominating the parliament, meaning any effort by Yoon to improve ties — including the possibility of coming up with special legislation to resolve the liquidation issue — is certain to be rejected.
Ito said the party would oppose every move Yoon makes, particularly after a fierce presidential race.
Japan too faces a hurdle. Kishida, who played a major role as foreign minister in striking the comfort women agreement, has maintained that Seoul must act, and any movement on that position will be seen as Kishida backing down against South Korea, particularly as Japanese people’s sentiment toward South Korea has remained negative across the board.
With the Japanese House of Councilors election slated for July, Kishida is unlikely to take such a risk until his ruling Liberal Democratic Party secures a win, allowing him to solidify his leadership for the next three years.
Still, Asaba said better ties between the two U.S. allies is something U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration hopes for as it faces an increasingly assertive China in the western Pacific at a time when Russia has unilaterally been attempting to alter the status quo over Ukraine by force.
Ito agreed on the importance of improving Tokyo-Seoul ties, saying, “This is not just about a relationship between the two countries. It is a key relationship in the region, and it is about what they will do to safeguard liberal democracy in the world, as the Ukraine crisis pulled the trigger.”
“Japan cannot just continue to be in discord with South Korea,” he said.