Asia

Asia, China, Market, World

The global evolution
of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation

The annual meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) – the political, economic, security and defence organisation established by China and Russia in 2001 – have long attracted international attention. This year’s summit on 3-4 July, however, took on a new gravity, set against the backdrop of the Russia–Ukraine war, escalating tensions between Russia and the West, enduring strains in China–US relations, and the dynamics surrounding the US elections. The SCO is seeking to evolve from a regional security framework to powerful geopolitical entity. The recent accession of Russian ally Belarus to membership represents a push to transform the grouping in Eurasia as well as a move towards countering Western institutions led by the United States an...
Asia, Market

Pakistan, Azerbaijan agree to take economic relations to new heights

ISLAMABAD, July 12, 2024 (BSS/XINHUA) - Pakistan and Azerbaijan have agreed to take economic relations to new heights, enhancing the bilateral investment level of up to 2 billion U.S. dollars in areas of mutually beneficial projects. In a joint press stakeout along with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Thursday that both countries are ready to ink agreements worth 2 billion U.S. dollars to start with as there is great potential to multiply this figure in years to come. The Azerbaijani president said that for an initial investment of 2 billion U.S. dollars, several projects in the areas of energy, connectivity, infrastructure and defense industry were reviewed, adding that Pakistan and Azerbaijan will build strong partnership not onl...
Asia, China, Market

China: Unbalanced economic resilience at home, rising trade tensions and conflict risks abroad

Event China’s economic activity continues to show signs of resilience but with discrepancies among growth drivers. Besides, China is facing rising external risks, from trade to conflicts in Asia. Impact The Chinese economy grew by 5.3% YoY in the first quarter of 2024. In an upward revision from the IMF, it is expected that the country’s GDP growth will reach 5% this year (i.e. slightly less than +5.2% in 2023) while a deceleration to +4.5% in 2025 is still forecast, pursuing the structural economic slowdown. Industrial production, investments and particularly exports tend to support growth. Nevertheless, domestic demand continues to be relatively weak given the households’ confidence crisis – exacerbated by high youth unemployment – deleveraging local governments and a continuin...
Asia, China, Market

China: Unbalanced economic resilience at home, rising trade tensions and conflict risks abroad

Event China’s economic activity continues to show signs of resilience but with discrepancies among growth drivers. Besides, China is facing rising external risks, from trade to conflicts in Asia. Impact The Chinese economy grew by 5.3% YoY in the first quarter of 2024. In an upward revision from the IMF, it is expected that the country’s GDP growth will reach 5% this year (i.e. slightly less than +5.2% in 2023) while a deceleration to +4.5% in 2025 is still forecast, pursuing the structural economic slowdown. Industrial production, investments and particularly exports tend to support growth. Nevertheless, domestic demand continues to be relatively weak given the households’ confidence crisis – exacerbated by high youth unemployment – deleveraging local governments and a continuin...
Asia, China, Market

China’s third plenum is unlikely to significantly correct an ailing economy

China’s third plenum, taking place in Beijing from 15 to 18 July, is a once-in-every-five-years conclave of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, where a range of policies to address long-standing issues are unveiled. Historically, this event has seen announcements of major policy shifts and economic reforms. This time around, markets and China watchers hope the third plenum can answer a specific question: will sufficient growth-enhancing measures be announced to revive the Chinese economy after years of underwhelming performance? The party’s official channels have been previewing the third plenum as a platform for “comprehensive” reforms, but foreign observers and some academics are not convinced. Increasingly serious problems have been piling up fo...
<strong>Yuan’s downward spiral against dollar continues</strong>
Asia, China, USA

Yuan’s downward spiral against dollar continues

In the last week of June, the offshore yuan experienced a significant drop against the U.S. dollar, reaching a seven-month low of 7.27:1. This depreciation of China's currency was influenced by several factors, as suggested by market analysts. One of the contributing factors was the lower-than-anticipated spot fixing rate established by the People's Bank of China (PBOC). This led to speculation that Chinese authorities might permit further depreciation of the yuan. As a result, the yuan has seen a decline of over 2 percent against the dollar since the beginning of the year. There's been a noticeable shift in the pattern of foreign investment in China's mainland stock market. Instead of buying, organizations are now selling. In June alone, approximately 33 billion yuan ($4.54 billion...
China Tightens Up on Bankers’ Wages
Asia, China

China Tightens Up on Bankers’ Wages

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief. The highlights this week: Executives at Chinese state banks face new pay limits, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visits Beijing, and China’s trucking industry becomes embroiled in a cooking oil scandal. New Pay Limits Expected in Financial Sector China is planning an annual pay cap of 3 million yuan (about $413,000) for executives in the state-owned financial sector, which dominates banking in the country. Financiers’ pay has already fallen since the COVID-19 pandemic amid a general economic slowdown and a calamitous stock market. Rolling corruption investigations, meanwhile, have snatched up many staff, with more than 30 senior regulators or bankers arrested so far this year. So...
Analyzing Pakistan’s current economic strategy in light of the CPEC
Asia, China

Analyzing Pakistan’s current economic strategy in light of the CPEC

Pakistan’s newly elected Prime Minister, Shahbaz Sharif, made his first official visit to China from June 4-8, 2024. As Pakistan is struggling with a dire economic crisis and is in urgent need of a new IMF package, the visit was not just ceremonial. The Pakistani PM hopes to leverage his country’s “higher-than-Himalayas and deeper-than-the-ocean” friendship with China for an even stronger relationship. His delegation included key cabinet ministers like finance and foreign affairs. More than 100 Pakistani business leaders joined PM Sharif on the trip, which featured a convention with Chinese enterprises. Army Chief General Asim Munir was also part of the delegation, which was justified by his position on the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), a group tasked with luring interna...
<strong>Potential tariffs on Chinese EVs spark retaliation concerns and trade tensions in Canada</strong>
Asia, China, World

Potential tariffs on Chinese EVs spark retaliation concerns and trade tensions in Canada

Canada has begun evaluating the impact of China’s alleged unfair trade practices on its electric vehicle (EV) market, leaving China unhappy and perturbed. This decision follows actions by the US and the European Commission, Canada’s international partners, which have recently responded to unfair competition in their EV industries. The purpose of the consultation, which will continue until August 1, is to assess the risk of Canada’s EV market being inundated with cheaper Chinese plug-ins. Experts have not ruled out the possibility of retaliation from China. If Canada imposes tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, two trade experts predict that the world’s second-largest economy will forcefully retaliate. Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, s...
Asia, China, Market, World

In charts: the changing picture of China’s outbound study

Disruption to the upward trend From 2010 to 2019 the number of outbound Chinese students grew at an average annual rate of 9.5%, making the country the biggest source of international students globally. However, this rapid growth was disrupted by the pandemic that emerged in 2020. The virus (and China’s subsequent restrictive policy) caused profound damage to the country’s student mobility. The number of outbound students plummeted by 36% year on year in 2020, according to a report by the Centre for China and Globalisation (CCG), a think‑tank.  Although the number of outbound students has been climbing after the initial hit from the pandemic, it remains well below the potential trend that would have manifested had the pandemic not occurred. In the meantime, the picture of...