China Mid-year Outlook 2024 : Waiting for policy
What we think
This July there are two important meetings in China that may provide further insight into the macro outlook: the Third Plenum and the Politburo meeting. The two policy areas we’ll closely watch are domestic demand and fiscal reform. The economy appears to be at an inflection point. The resilience of the manufacturing sector is a bright spot, while other parts of the economy look mixed, but could start to improve.
Investment implications
We retain a relatively cautious view on offshore China markets. The downside is limited, but the upside is capped by a mixed macro backdrop and earnings that have yet to show meaningful upside. We expect the A-share market to be relatively more resilient thanks to lower exposure to geopolitical risks (and foreign outflows), limited F...