Asia

Asia, China, Market, World

China Mid-year Outlook 2024 : Waiting for policy

What we think This July there are two important meetings in China that may provide further insight into the macro outlook: the Third Plenum and the Politburo meeting. The two policy areas we’ll closely watch are domestic demand and fiscal reform. The economy appears to be at an inflection point. The resilience of the manufacturing sector is a bright spot, while other parts of the economy look mixed, but could start to improve. Investment implications We retain a relatively cautious view on offshore China markets. The downside is limited, but the upside is capped by a mixed macro backdrop and earnings that have yet to show meaningful upside. We expect the A-share market to be relatively more resilient thanks to lower exposure to geopolitical risks (and foreign outflows), limited F...
Asia, China, Market, World

China and global development: what to read in June 2024

Welcome to the June 2024 edition of our China and Global Development round-up. This month, I have curated a selection of resources that delve into the Belt and Road Initiative’s role in promoting structural transformation, the evolving dynamics of Africa-Asia relations, the EU and China’s distinct development approaches in Africa, and the New Development Bank. Read 1: The Belt and Road and dynamics of structural transformation Along with my colleagues Lorena Lombardozzi and Rhys Jenkins, I have edited a special issue on “China’s Belt and Road Initiative and dynamics of structural transformation”. This project stemmed from our observation that while there is a lot of discussion about the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and international development, they rarely engag...
Asia, China, Market, USA, World

China and the renminbi dominate US foreign exchange concerns

Unexciting Treasury report should focus more on dollar strength The US Treasury released its latest foreign exchange report last week. It has not garnered much excitement. Dollar strength poses a bigger foreign exchange question for the current international economic juncture than other currencies, but the report does not devote enough discussion to this. Further, the external positions of key surplus countries raise more nettlesome structural bugs than foreign exchange developments. Nonetheless, several salient themes are well explored, while other parts miss their mark. What are the hits and misses? The hits The first hit is the Treasury’s discussion of the Chinese economy and external position. The report documents China’s efforts to resist renminbi depreciation a...
Asia, China, Market

Address by China Premier Li Qiang to the Annual Meeting of New Champions 2024

This is a transcript from China Premier Li Qiang's speech at the Opening Plenary of the Annual Meeting of the New Champions. Premier Li Qiang underscored the importance of global cooperation and innovation to drive economic growth and identifies artificial intelligence, green energy and biomedicine as potential multitrillion-dollar pillar industries. The 15th Annual Meeting of the New Champions takes place 25-27 June in Dalian under the theme, "Next Frontiers for Growth". Your Excellency President Andrzej Duda, Your Excellency Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, professor Klaus Schwab, your excellencies heads of international organizations, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, friends. It is a great pleasure to join friends, old and new, here in the beautiful city ...
<strong>CHINESE CHIP PRODUCTION AT RISK AS EQUIPMENT BAN LOOMS</strong>
Asia, China, Market, USA

CHINESE CHIP PRODUCTION AT RISK AS EQUIPMENT BAN LOOMS

The United States is intensifying its measures to restrict China's access to cutting-edge chip technologies capable of manufacturing gate-all-around (GAA) transistors and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. ChangXin Memory Technologies Inc (CXMT), a Hefei-based company that manufactures DRAM for computer servers and smart vehicles, is likely to be a significant focus of Washington's potential restrictions, as per media reports. Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron are among the major competitors of CXMT. Alan Estevez, who heads the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) at the US Commerce Department, recently embarked on a trip to the Netherlands. The purpose of his visit, as reported by Reuters on Tuesday, was to discuss the inclusion of an additional 11 Chinese chip manufacturi...
Asia, Market, World

Revenue Statistics in Asia and the Pacific 2024

This annual publication compiles comparable tax revenue statistics for 36 economies, including Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, People’s Republic of China, the Cook Islands, Fiji, Georgia, Hong Kong (China), Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Mongolia, Nauru, New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, the Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tokelau, Vanuatu and Viet Nam. Additionally, it provides information on non-tax revenues for 22 of the 36 economies. The publication applies the OECD Revenue Statistics methodology to Asian and Pacific economies, facilitating consistent comparison of tax levels and structure...
Asia, China, Market, USA, World

OECD Economic Surveys: United States 2024

The United States economy has continued to expand at a solid pace and price pressures have eased somewhat. However, a sustained fiscal deficit has contributed to raising public debt as a share of GDP to its highest level since World War II, with a further substantial increase in prospect over coming decades as the population ages. To put the public finances on a more sustainable path, a multi-year fiscal adjustment should be enacted that achieves savings on pensions and healthcare and raises taxation, including on capital incomes. A more medium-term oriented and less complicated federal budgeting process would support this. At the same time, economic growth would benefit from productivity enhancing reforms that promote competition, including through maintaining international trade opennes...
Asia, China, Market

Measurement of health human capital and its economic effect in China

Improving individual health not only enhances labor productivity but also boosts the productivity of society as a whole. China’s economic development is in urgent need of transitioning from being driven by factors to being driven by innovation, which places higher demands on Health Human Capital (HHC). An evaluation system consisting of 18 indicators across four dimensions—basic health, preventive healthcare, medical resources, quality, and healthy environment—was used to calculate the HHC index of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2019 using the entropy method. Following that, this study assessed the influence of HHC on economic growth using endogenous growth theory and the Corgis production function. Firstly, we discovered that the level of home healthcare services in China ...
Asia, Market, USA, World

US July 2024 visa bulletin: Big leaps for Indians in Green Card category

The July Visa Bulletin has brought a notable shift in various visa categories. The US State Department has retrogressed the EB-3 All Other Countries category. In the EB-1 category, India has moved forward by 11 months, now at February 1, 2022. This is a big change, marking significant progress for applicants in this category. On the other hand, the EB-2 category for India has advanced by two months, reaching June 15, 2012. What is the US Visa Bulletin? The Visa Bulletin lists priority dates, essentially placeholders in the green card application line. Each month, the US Department of State calculates how many applications are waiting in each category, helping them estimate when different applicants might be able to move forward. These dates in the Visa Bulletin indicate the earli...
Asia, Market, World

Six imperatives for credit unions to secure their future

Credit unions in the United States are at a crossroads. Their membership ranks are aging, and young people don’t always see credit unions’ offerings as a good value. That means credit unions need to work harder to attract younger members, or risk fading into irrelevance. (For more details on credit unions—what are they exactly and who can join one—see sidebar, “A brief history of credit unions.”) US credit unions have had a strong run in recent years. Since 2018, loans at credit unions have grown 8.8 percent a year, on average,1 compared with 8.0 percent a year for bank loans,2 while deposits at credit unions have risen 9.0 percent, compared with 8.9 percent for bank deposits. Despite these positive trends, 2023 was a difficult year for US credit unions, as ROA for the sector fell 23.5...