Asia

China’s relentless dumping of cheap goods into Indonesia is eroding the country’s MSMEs, dismantling local supply chains, and exposing deep vulnerabilities in Indonesia’s industrial ecosystem. Latest trade data shows China now accounts for more than one-third of Indonesia’s imports, underscoring the scale of this structural imbalance. Across Indonesia’s archipelago, from Surabaya’s bustling markets to Jakarta’s digital storefronts, a quiet but devastating transformation is underway. Micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) which employ 90–95% of Indonesia’s workforceare abandoning production and shifting to reselling Chinese imports. This is not globalization in its benign form; it is a structural displacement driven by China’s industrial dominance and Indonesia’s inabili...

Debt restructuring, grants and donations, commercial contracts, and deepening trade and financial linkages are allowing China to enhance its presence in the Maldives and create economic dependencies. On 30 November, the Maldivian government accelerated the Rasmalé project, a large-scale land reclamation initiative that will subsequently receive Chinese support for infrastructure development. This move underscores a broader shift in China’s economic presence in the Maldives under the presidency of Mohamed Muizzu. China’s modus operandi in the Maldives can be categorised into four broader trends: prioritising debt restructuring over new loans; focus on grants and donations; securing commercial contracts; and deepening economic and financial linkages. These engagement...

China’s central bank kept its loan prime rates steady on Monday, even as the world’s second largest economy has seen weak economic data and an extended slump in its property sector. The People’s Bank of China kept its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively, holding them for a seventh straight meeting, in line with a Reuters survey. The 1-year rate acts as a benchmark for new loans, while the 5-year helps peg mortgage rates. The PBOC’s decision comes amid downbeat economic data from China in November, including lower-than-expected retail sales and industrial output. Retail sales rose 1.3% last month from a year earlier, sharply missing Reuters’ median forecast for a 2.8% growth, and slowing from 2.9% rise in the prior month. Industrial p...

ates seeking jobs at private enterprises is declining, dropping to 12.5% last year from 25.1% in 2020, the survey showed. Rising uncertainty in the jobs market, layoffs and slowing wage growth in the private sector have pushed many youngsters to seek the “security, predictable benefits and social prestige of public service,” said Mingjiang Li, associate professor at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. China’s education ministry has sought to bolster employment at privately owned enterprises, offering tax rebates, social insurance reliefs and subsidies to encourage hiring young graduates. But the incentives have been low. The Shanghai municipal government, for instance, offers just 1,500 yuan in one-time subsidy per new hire. Government hiring slowsAppl...

Top investment banks forecast moderate growth next year amid trade, property and structural challenges After a turbulent year marked by the trade war and domestic headwinds, China will head into 2026 cautiously as it grapples with structural challenges to growth. Global investors are watching closely to see how Beijing works to shore up confidence, double down on strategic industries and mitigate overcapacity, all while navigating a fast-evolving geopolitical environment. In this explainer, the Post distils forecasts from major investment banks and economists on what to expect in 2026, also the first year of the next five-year plan – a socio-economic blueprint that typically sets the tone for policy direction. GDP outlook There is consensus among major financial in...