Asia

The Indian economy is expected to witness 6.8% growth this year and 6.5% in 2025, according to Moody’s Ratings, which was based on robust economic performance and continued post-election policy. Real GDP growth in India increased to 7.7% in 2023 from 6.5% in 2022, primarily due to the government’s heavy capital spending and brisk manufacturing output. High-frequency indicators have shown continued economic momentum in the March and June quarters of this year. These indicators include robust goods and services tax revenues, growing auto sales, consumer optimism, and expanding manufacturing and services PMIs. “We believe the Indian economy should comfortably register 6-7 per cent annual real GDP growth and we forecast around 6.8 per cent growth,” Moody’s said in its update to Globa...

Mumbai: The Indian economy would need to navigate some of the challenges arising out of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies, and recurrent climate shocks, even as it is poised for stronger growth over the next decade, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its annual report for FY24. The central bank said that the growth in the next decade would come in the backdrop of macroeconomic and financial stability as India uses its demographic dividend and make the most of competitive advantages. “…the Indian economy is navigating the drag from an adverse global macroeconomic and financial environment,” it said in the report released on Thursday. However, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is robust on the back of solid investment demand...

The proportion of chief economists expecting strong growth in the US this year has gone to 97% now from 59% in January 2024, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF). The implication is that, despite high interest rates, the world's largest economy isn't slowing down. Global markets have their hopes pinned on interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, as inflation inches down. Nearly seven out of every 10 economists polled by Reuters expect a rate cut by the American Central Bank in September this year. However, if growth remains strong in the US and new jobs continue to get added, it may affect the odds of a reduction in inflation, further deferring the impending rate cut cycle that the markets are waiting for. The US added 175,000 jobs in April, a strong growth, al...

Taking note of robust growth and rising quality of government spending, S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday revised outlook on India’s economy to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’. However, it retained the sovereign rating as ‘BBB Minus’. The rating has been on BBB- since January 30, 2007 (when it was upgraded from BB+). It has been on BBB-/stable since September 26, 2014 (it was placed on negative outlook on April 25, 2012).  Meanwhile, it is the first agency which has revised the outlook. Earlier in January, relying on a robust medium-term GDP growth outlook and sound external finances, Fitch affirmed India’s sovereign rating at ‘BBB Minus’ with stable outlook. ‘BBB Minus’ is the lowest investment grade rating offered. Rating upgrade Change in outlook means there is ...

A range of data suggests Thailand’s economy has not reached maximal employment. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has some good grounds to inject economic stimulus—but should reconsider the policy’s design. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin proposed a 10,000 baht per person stimulus as a central piece of his economic agenda. Almost ever since, the stimulus has faced intense criticism. In an otherwise bitterly partisan environment, the stimulus has united factions against Srettha. Democrat Party officials have called out corruption risks and damage to national budgets. Move Forward’s Pita Limjaroenrat said infrastructure improvement and broader reform should take precedence. Srettha’s military-linked coalition partners appear unenthused about passing the legislation. Last month in...

Bangladesh's outstanding external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt, at $79 billion as of September 2023, is not high when compared to economies of similar size. The amount, equivalent to about 17 percent of the country's GDP, is not an outlier when compared to corresponding figures for other developing countries and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). However, if the recent growth trend of its external debt-servicing obligations is taken into consideration, the management of external sovereign debt should demand closer attention. Indeed, in recent years, issues of external debt-servicing and debt-carrying capacity have emerged as a global concern in policy circles. A review of the literature shows that many low-income countries could face debt distress and fall into the dre...

ISLAMABAD -- Cash-strapped Pakistan is moving to restructure more than $15 billion in power-plant debt owed to Chinese energy producers, in a move that threatens to dampen Beijing's appetite for future investment. The South Asian nation is already on the hook for about $1.9 billion in unpaid operating bills at 20 China-backed power plants across the country. Most were built under the $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a key part of Beijing's globe-spanning Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). But Islamabad announced last weekend that it was seeking to restructure $15.4 billion in loans linked to the construction of those China-funded plants. Pakistan wants to extend the maturity of the loans by five years to save roughly $2 billion in debt-servicing costs over the ne...

The United Nations has revised upwards India’s growth projections for 2024, with the country’s economy now forecast to expand by close to 7% this year, mainly driven by strong public investment and resilient private consumption. The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2024, released Thursday, said, “India’s economy is forecast to expand by 6.9% in 2024 and 6.6% in 2025, mainly driven by strong public investment and resilient private consumption. Although subdued external demand will continue to weigh on merchandise export growth, pharmaceuticals and chemicals exports are expected to expand strongly.” The 6.9% economic growth projections for India in the mid-year update is an upward revision from the 6.2% GDP forecast made by the U.N. in January this year. The U.N. World...

According to the monetary policy committee of the BB, the economy faced two critical challenges -- persistently high inflation and depleting foreign exchange reserves. Although the BB and the government have taken various measures to curb inflation, stabilise the exchange rate and protect the erosion of foreign exchange reserves, inflation remains stubbornly high and the foreign exchange reserve situation is not improving to the desired level, the central bank said. Inflation has stayed above 9 percent since March last year, and the local currency weakened by 35 percent against the US dollar in the past two years. The country's reserves have more than halved, bringing about one of the worst economic crises for the low-middle-income nation. It has been struggling to raise enough taxe...