Asia Archives - Page 26 of 107

16Jul

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Asia, Market, World

Press Conference: World Economic Outlook Update, July 2024

DE HARO: So good morning everyone, and welcome to this virtual Press Briefing. I'm Jose Luis de Haro with the Communications Department here at the International Monetary Fund, and we are gathered here today for the launch of the World Economic Outlook Update. I hope that by this time you all have access to the document. If not, I will encourage you to go to imf.org. There you will find the flagship, but also Pierre-Olivier’s blog and other assets that might be helpful for your reporting. And to discuss the World Economic Outlook Update today, we are joined by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. He is the Chief Economist and the Director of the Research Department. Next to him are Petya Koeva Brooks, she is the Deputy Director of the Research Depa...

15Jul

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Asia, Market, World

The ‘Second China Shock’ and its Implications for Southeast Asia

The term ‘second China shock’ has been coined to describe China’s changing role in the global economy. China’s aggregation of global manufacturing capacity and progress up technological ladders appears increasingly not as a passing phase in transition to a consumption and services-led economy. Rather, it is a lasting phenomenon that is reshaping the world economy and politics. Few countries will be more impacted by this than those in ASEAN, whose economies are already closely entwined with China’s. The guiding thread in Chinese economic and industrial policy is to develop ‘new quality productive forces’, based on advancing domestic capacities in science and technology (S&T). The government work report delivered at China’s last legislative session earlier this year priori...

15Jul

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Asia, China, Market, USA, World

Will China ever overtake the US economy?

The idea of China's outstripping the United States to become the world's largest economy has been a fixation for policymakers and economists for decades. What will happen, they argue, when the US — one of the most dynamic, productive economies — is usurped by an authoritarian regime with a workforce of 750 million? Predictions of when exactly China would steal the US's crown have come thick and fast ever since the 2008/9 financial crisis, which hampered growth in the United States and Europe for many years. Before what became known as the Great Recession, China saw double-digit annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth for at least five years. In the decade following the crisis, China's economy continued to expand by 6%-9% annually. That is, until COVID-1...

13Jul

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Asia, Market, USA, World

India beckons UK and France after Europe’s election earthquakes

Seismic election upheavals in Britain and France have redrawn the political landscape of Europe, and the ripple effects could reshape trade dynamics with Asian growth engines like India and Southeast Asia in the months ahead. Voters’ economic anxieties propelled the UK’s Labour Party to a landslide win, toppling the Conservatives after 14 years in power. Across the English Channel, the left-wing New Popular Front coalition secured the most seats in France’s hung parliament. For Britain’s new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, resetting ties with the European Union will top his agenda. But his “pragmatic” government will also be keen to engage with Asia’s emerging, surging economies, analysts say. “They see Asian tiger economie...

12Jul

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Asia, China, Market, World

The global evolution
of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation

The annual meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) – the political, economic, security and defence organisation established by China and Russia in 2001 – have long attracted international attention. This year’s summit on 3-4 July, however, took on a new gravity, set against the backdrop of the Russia–Ukraine war, escalating tensions between Russia and the West, enduring strains in China–US relations, and the dynamics surrounding the US elections. The SCO is seeking to evolve from a regional security framework to powerful geopolitical entity. The recent accession of Russian ally Belarus to membership represents a push to transform the grouping in Eurasia as well as a move towards countering Western institutions led by the United States an...

12Jul

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Asia, Market

Pakistan, Azerbaijan agree to take economic relations to new heights

ISLAMABAD, July 12, 2024 (BSS/XINHUA) - Pakistan and Azerbaijan have agreed to take economic relations to new heights, enhancing the bilateral investment level of up to 2 billion U.S. dollars in areas of mutually beneficial projects. In a joint press stakeout along with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Thursday that both countries are ready to ink agreements worth 2 billion U.S. dollars to start with as there is great potential to multiply this figure in years to come. The Azerbaijani president said that for an initial investment of 2 billion U.S. dollars, several projects in the areas of energy, connectivity, infrastructure and defense industry were reviewed, adding that Pakistan and Azerbaijan will build strong partnership not onl...

12Jul

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Asia, China, Market

China: Unbalanced economic resilience at home, rising trade tensions and conflict risks abroad

Event China’s economic activity continues to show signs of resilience but with discrepancies among growth drivers. Besides, China is facing rising external risks, from trade to conflicts in Asia. Impact The Chinese economy grew by 5.3% YoY in the first quarter of 2024. In an upward revision from the IMF, it is expected that the country’s GDP growth will reach 5% this year (i.e. slightly less than +5.2% in 2023) while a deceleration to +4.5% in 2025 is still forecast, pursuing the structural economic slowdown. Industrial production, investments and particularly exports tend to support growth. Nevertheless, domestic demand continues to be relatively weak given the households’ confidence crisis – exacerbated by high youth unemployment – deleveraging local governments and a continuin...

12Jul

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Asia, China, Market

China: Unbalanced economic resilience at home, rising trade tensions and conflict risks abroad

Event China’s economic activity continues to show signs of resilience but with discrepancies among growth drivers. Besides, China is facing rising external risks, from trade to conflicts in Asia. Impact The Chinese economy grew by 5.3% YoY in the first quarter of 2024. In an upward revision from the IMF, it is expected that the country’s GDP growth will reach 5% this year (i.e. slightly less than +5.2% in 2023) while a deceleration to +4.5% in 2025 is still forecast, pursuing the structural economic slowdown. Industrial production, investments and particularly exports tend to support growth. Nevertheless, domestic demand continues to be relatively weak given the households’ confidence crisis – exacerbated by high youth unemployment – deleveraging local governments and a continuin...

11Jul

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Asia, China, Market

China’s third plenum is unlikely to significantly correct an ailing economy

China’s third plenum, taking place in Beijing from 15 to 18 July, is a once-in-every-five-years conclave of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, where a range of policies to address long-standing issues are unveiled. Historically, this event has seen announcements of major policy shifts and economic reforms. This time around, markets and China watchers hope the third plenum can answer a specific question: will sufficient growth-enhancing measures be announced to revive the Chinese economy after years of underwhelming performance? The party’s official channels have been previewing the third plenum as a platform for “comprehensive” reforms, but foreign observers and some academics are not convinced. Increasingly serious problems have been piling up fo...

<strong>Yuan’s downward spiral against dollar continues</strong>

11Jul

By Michael SmithNo Comments

Asia, China, USA

Yuan’s downward spiral against dollar continues

In the last week of June, the offshore yuan experienced a significant drop against the U.S. dollar, reaching a seven-month low of 7.27:1. This depreciation of China's currency was influenced by several factors, as suggested by market analysts. One of the contributing factors was the lower-than-anticipated spot fixing rate established by the People's Bank of China (PBOC). This led to speculation that Chinese authorities might permit further depreciation of the yuan. As a result, the yuan has seen a decline of over 2 percent against the dollar since the beginning of the year. There's been a noticeable shift in the pattern of foreign investment in China's mainland stock market. Instead of buying, organizations are now selling. In June alone, approximately 33 billion yuan ($4.54 billion...

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