Asia

18Oct By TheGreenZoneNo Comments
Asia, China, Market

An Overview of the Chinese Economy, October 2024

China’s economy expanded by 4.6% yoy in Q3 2024 – broadly in line with our expectations – marginally slower than at 4.7% yoy growth recorded in Q2. We have argued for some time that the full year target of “around 5%” would be difficult to reach – indeed it would take a sizeable acceleration in activity in Q4, something we consider unlikely given the lack of meaningful fiscal stimulus to date. Should such a program occur following the National People’s Congress in late October, it likely implies more upside risk to our 2025 forecasts than 2024. Our growth forecasts are unchanged – we see an increase of 4.7% yoy in 2024, before easing to 4.6% in 2025, with the property sector and weak domestic demand remaining headwinds to growth Growth in China’s industrial production was slightly str...
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18Oct By TheGreenZoneNo Comments
Asia, China, Market

The economic slump in China gets worse.

China's economy expanded in the third quarter at the slowest pace since early last year, as the country struggles to boost flagging growth. On an annual basis, gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 4.6% in the three months to the end of September,according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. That is less than the previous quarter and below the government's "around 5%" target for this year. But it was slightly better than analysts expected, while other official figures released on Friday, including retail sales and factory output, also beat forecasts. In recent weeks, Beijing has announced a number of measures aimed at supporting growth. This is the second quarter in a row that China's official measure of economic growth has fallen below the 5% target, which will add to...
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Economic prognosis for Japan, October 2024
18Oct By TheGreenZoneNo Comments
Asia, Market

Economic prognosis for Japan, October 2024

Evidence of improvement is emerging in the Japanese economy: After a contraction in the first quarter, real gross domestic product rebounded by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2024, thanks to strong domestic demand.1 Consumer spending grew 0.9% from the previous quarter, while both residential and nonresidential private investments picked up. Year over year, consumer spending returned to growing ways, while exports contracted for the first time since 2020.2 Clearly, the driver of Japan’s economic growth is shifting from external to domestic demand. Although we expect domestic demand growth to continue, gains will likely be modest as elevated inflation limits the benefits of stronger wage growth. Real GDP growth was a welcome development, but some of the gains in the second quar...
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India’s economy is expected to rank third, however growing populations provide a challenge: The S&P
18Oct By TheGreenZoneNo Comments
Asia, Market

India’s economy is expected to rank third, however growing populations provide a challenge: The S&P

India is poised to be the third largest global economy by 2030 but rising population presents mounting challenges in basic service coverage and growing investment needs to maintain productivity, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. It said emerging economies have high ambitions for the next decade and beyond with India aiming to become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, from the current $3.6 trillion. India is currently the fifth largest economy. "India is poised to be the fastest-growing major economy over the next three years and the third largest globally by 2030. Its 2024 entry into JP Morgan's Government Emerging Market Bond Index could provide additional government funding and unlock significant resources in domestic capital markets. This is only a first step --investors will...
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Due to a dire energy situation, Cuba was obliged to “paralyze its economy.”
18Oct By TheGreenZoneNo Comments
Asia, Market, World

Due to a dire energy situation, Cuba was obliged to “paralyze its economy.”

Cuba’s government has announced it will halt all non-vital state services and businesses for three days as it battles an energy crisis that has caused marathon blackouts for much of the country. Prime Minister Manuel Marrero outlined the measures in an address Thursday night, saying the government had no choice but to “paralyse the economy.” This includes shuttering all cultural activities and recreation centres such as discos, as well as public schools until Monday, Cuba’s state-run electricity union said in a release. After initially announcing staggered geographical outages, the government declared a complete nationwide breakdown of the National Electric Power System shortly after 11am (15:00 GMT) on Friday morning, declaring it had been “totally disconnected.” It...
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The inflationary situation in Pakistan might cause a rift between the people and the government.
18Oct By TheGreenZoneNo Comments
Asia

The inflationary situation in Pakistan might cause a rift between the people and the government.

The connection between citizen and state is becoming frayed to an extent I have rarely seen before. In our national conversation, most of the reason for why this is happening has been ascribed to the rollback of rights and constitutional protections in recent years, a phenomenon that is accelerating rather than drawing to a close. Part of the reason for this emphasis is the large and outsized voice that lawyers have in our national discourse, and they necessarily see everything through the lens of law, rights and the Constitution. But there is another reason that is at least equally important and, I will argue, more foundational. That reason is livelihoods. The most ferocious inflationary fire of our history still smoulders in our midst. In the last five years, my own per unit elect...
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Would China’s latest stimulus be sufficient to boost its economy?
17Oct By TheGreenZoneNo Comments
Asia, China, Market

Would China’s latest stimulus be sufficient to boost its economy?

In September, China’s central bank announced its most aggressive measures since the pandemic to get its economy back on track after it became clear the country might miss its 5 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for 2024. The world’s second-largest economy is still struggling from the lingering side-effects of COVID-19 – when China implemented some of the longest and harshest lockdowns – to the collapse of its property sector in 2021, and deeper societal changes like a falling birthrate and ageing population. Beijing has so far avoided the kind of 4 trillion RMB ($586bn) stimulus it used in 2008 following the global financial crisis, but its latest moves have been met with a positive response from investors. Observers, however, wonder whether it will be enough. Wh...
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16Oct By TheGreenZoneNo Comments
Asia, Market, World

Due to unfavorable global signals, shares may begin the day down.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 1,748.71 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1,654.96 crore in the Indian equity market on 15 October 2024, provisional data showed. According to NSDL data, FPIs have sold shares worth over Rs 70303.50 crore (so far) in the secondary market during October 2024. This follows their purchase of shares worth Rs 46,552.40 crore in September 2024. Most Asian stocks declined on Wednesday, primarily due to a weak outlook from ASML, a leading chipmaker. Cooling optimism about Chinese stimulus measures also contributed to the market's downturn. Regional markets followed Wall Street's lead, where a drop in chipmaking stocks pulled U.S. benchmarks from record highs. At the close in NYSE...
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Can China’s lethargic economy be revived by the massive stimulus spending the government is planning?
15Oct By TheGreenZoneNo Comments
Asia, China, Market

Can China’s lethargic economy be revived by the massive stimulus spending the government is planning?

China’s relentless economic growth used to be the marvel of the world. Oh, what a memory. The past couple of years have seen China contend with an economic slowdown amid colliding crises, many of which make it internationally unique. Consumer prices have been approaching deflationary territory, there’s an oversupply of housing, and youth unemployment has soared. Mounting pressure has forced the Chinese government to step in. Over the past month, Beijing has put forward a set of significant economic stimulus measures aimed at reviving China’s faltering economy. According to a research note by Deutsche Bank, this stimulus could potentially become “the largest in history” in nominal terms. But there’s still a lot we don’t know. So what kinds of measures that are ...
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14Oct By TheGreenZoneNo Comments
Asia, China, Market, World

Goldman Sachs upgraded their predictions for China’s economic expansion.

Analysts expect China's GDP to grow by 4.9% in 2024 Goldman Sachs has improved its forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, Bloomberg  The forecast has been improved on the back of Beijing’s unveiling of a number of stimulus measures, including recent plans to increase government spending. Goldman Sachs expects China’s GDP to grow by 4.9% this year, up from 4.7% previously forecast. According to a new research note, the investment bank also raised its forecast for Chinese economic growth in 2025 to 4.7% (previously 4.3%). On October 12, China promised to “significantly increase” debt issuance to revive its economy, Reuters writes, but left investors guessing about the total amount of the stimulus package. Finance Minister Lan Foan said: Beijing will help...
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