China

China, Market, USA

Domestic macro forces have a major role in driving trade balances between the US and China.

China’s widening trade surplus and the growing US trade deficit since the pandemic have renewed concerns about global imbalances and fueled an intense debate on their causes and consequences. There are increasing worries that China’s external surpluses result from industrial policy measures designed to stimulate exports and support economic growth amid weak domestic demand. Some worry that the resulting overcapacity could lead to a “China shock 2.0”—a surge of exports that would displace workers and hurt industrial activity elsewhere. This trade and industrial policy view of external balances is incomplete at best and should be replaced with a macro view. External balances are ultimately determined by macroeconomic fundamentals, while the link to trade and industrial policy i...
Expert: China has the funds to handle the real estate crisis without affecting the rest of the world.
Asia, China, Market, World

Expert: China has the funds to handle the real estate crisis without affecting the rest of the world.

China’s property market remains the biggest downside risk to its economic growth target this year, with policymakers seemingly not in a hurry to make significant changes because its impact is mostly confined to the world’s second-largest economy, according to the chief economist for a global ratings agency. “China has the savings to deal with this. It’s not really spilling over too much to the rest of the world,” said Paul Gruenwald, global chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. “So they’re not going to be forced into dealing with the property excesses by any external or market pressure. They can do it at their own time, but we are not at the bottom yet.” In May, China unveiled wide-ranging measures to stabilise its property sector, which has been in contraction sin...
China’s Housing Rescue Math Is Unworkable, Extending the Crisis
China

China’s Housing Rescue Math Is Unworkable, Extending the Crisis

(Bloomberg) -- In May, China’s central government urged more than 200 cities to buy unsold homes to ease oversupply. More than three months later, only 29 have heeded the call. The glacial pace of implementation — driven in large part by the unattractive economics of the plan for local governments — underscores the challenge President Xi Jinping faces as he tries to arrest a record property slump that’s threatening to undermine the country’s growth targets. The plan has been a key part of the government’s attempt to shore up the real estate sector, while achieving Xi’s goal of creating more affordable housing. The disappointing progress raises the pressure for more forceful measures as China tries to deal with 382 million square meters of excess inventory, equivalent to the size of ...
Chip shortage hits Huawei’s Mate70 manufacturing
China, Market

Chip shortage hits Huawei’s Mate70 manufacturing

Huawei Technologies, based in Shenzhen, is facing challenges in securing enough high-end chips for its upcoming Mate70 smartphone. This struggle is a direct result of the ongoing the trade war against China which includes thechip war also. Both Huawei and its partner, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), are under US sanctions. They aimed to produce 2.5 million chips for the Mate70's September launch but fell short due to limited manufacturing capacity and productivity issues. According to The Information, the primary reason for this shortfall is the persistent impact of a four-year-old US ban on supplying chip manufacturing tools to Huawei and SMIC.  Initially, it was expected that Huawei would launch the Mate70 in China on September 10, a day after Apple's ...
Asia, China, Market

Xi is immobilized due to China’s economic chaos. The entire world will compensate.

Just about everyone has a view on China’s economic troubles. Its deepening property crisis, deflationary currents, and increasing protests are all Asia observers can talk about. Yet one very important voice is barely saying a word about the state of Asia’s biggest economy: President Xi Jinping. This is true both rhetorically and by way of policy actions. The deafening silence on the latter front is especially perplexing as virtually every Chinese growth engine—from investment to exports to household spending—sputters. Less quiet are commodity traders bidding down prices of oil, copper, and other commodities as China turns further inward. Hopes for smoke signals from Beijing that fresh stimulus might be coming are being dashed day after day. And keeping global marke...
Asia, China, Market

China’s central bank advances interest rate reform, and other economy stories to read this week

1. China's central bank furthers move to market-driven credit China's central bank is shifting its focus from the size of credit to its cost, aiming for a more market-driven interest rate system. However, the transition faces challenges from liquidity risks and uncooperative markets. This move, while crucial for broader financial reforms, is expected to be gradual, with the People's Bank of China facing significant hurdles as it works to balance reform goals with economic stability. "We are moving in the direction of developing market-based interest rates, but it's an arduous task and the road is long," a government adviser told Reuters anonymously. China's factory activity likely contracted for the fourth consecutive month in August, according to a recent Reuters po...
Asia, China, Market

How deeply rooted are China’s economic woes?

China’s slowdown shaped by four major problems China’s economy has continued to struggle in 2024, laying to rest any remaining hopes of a strong post-pandemic recovery. Instead of a rapid rebound as many analysts predicted, China’s reopening boom never materialised. It also appears that the Chinese government is not inclined to make major changes to its economic management and the high-profile Third Plenum came and went without significant reforms being announced. The country’s economic trajectory can be traced back to four major issues: first, the real estate market is in a protracted downturn; second, Chinese consumers have held back their spending after the economy reopened; third, deteriorating local government finances threaten a sharp slowdown in investment; and...
China, Market

China’s unemployment conundrum and its implications for global trade

China’s unemployment crisis underscores the broader challenges facing the country’s economic model. The combination of a deteriorating economy at home, falling consumption, overcapacity, excessive domestic competition in the labor market, and inadequate policy intervention now threaten China's long-term macroeconomic stability. These factors are stoking trade tensions for China abroad. How bad exactly is unemployment in China? Consider these examples: An increasing number of fresh college graduates are joining the gig economy by taking low-skilled jobs such as delivering food as they struggle to find jobs commensurate with their degrees. The number of people under the age of 25 who applied for manual jobs in the first quarter of 2024 surged 165% compared with the same period in 2019....
PwC, a ‘Big 4’ auditing company, is apparently prepared for a six-month suspension in China.
China, World

PwC, a ‘Big 4’ auditing company, is apparently prepared for a six-month suspension in China.

Beijing is reportedly considering a huge fine on PwC in addition to the business ban. The fine could go as high as 1 billion yuan ($140 million), Bloomberg reported in May, which would be the largest fine imposed on an auditing firm in China.  Regulators are scrutinizing PwC for its role in auditing China Evergrande Group, the embattled property developer that has become the poster child of China’s property crisis. In March, authorities accused Evergrande of inflating its revenue by almost $80 billion in 2019 and 2020.  Evergrande defaulted on its debts in 2021, helping to trigger China’s still-ongoing real estate crisis, which is continuing to drag down the economy. A Hong Kong court ordered Evergrande’s liquidation earlier this yea...
China, Market, World

Chinese Ambassador to The Bahamas Yan Jiarong Holds a Dialogue with Bahamian Business Leaders

On 20th August, 2024, Ms. Yan Jiarong, Chinese Ambassador to The Bahamas held a dialogue with Bahamian business leaders. Mr. Ingraham, Chairman of the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation, Mr. Peng Jing, Chief of Economic and Commercial Affairs of the Embassy attended the dialogue. Yan briefed achievements of Chinese modernization, highlighting that China’s economy has gained a firm footing and maintained a positive momentum, and the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee has conveyed a clear message of furthering high-standard opening up, which will bring new opportunities for China-Bahamas economic and trade cooperation. The two sides had in-depth exchanges on strengthening cooperation in trade, tourism, agriculture, culture, etc.  ...