China

<strong>China Retail Sales, factory output slows down</strong>
China

China Retail Sales, factory output slows down

In August, China’s industrial output growth decelerated to its lowest point in five months. Retail sales and new home prices also continued to decline, strengthening the argument for significant economic stimulus to meet the annual growth target. The data, released on Saturday, mirrored the weak bank lending figures from Friday, highlighting the sluggish growth momentum of the world’s second-largest economy, valued at $18.6 trillion, in the third quarter. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), industrial output in August grew by 4.5% year-on-year, down from 5.1% in July, marking the slowest growth since March. This figure fell short of the 4.8% growth anticipated by a Reuters poll of 37 analysts. Despite the summer travel peak, retail sales—a crucial indicator ...
Asia, China, Market, World

The world economy is stabilizing, but it is still weak. These are the main economists’ predictions for the economy.

The global economic outlook is stabilizing amid continuing economic uncertainty. The World Economic Forum's September 2024 Chief Economists Outlook found that a majority of chief economists (54%) expect the condition of the global economy to remain unchanged over the next year while more than a third (37%) expect it to weaken. “There are reasons for cautious optimism such as an easing of inflation and evidence of the resilience of global commerce,” the report notes. “Yet, if the economy is stabilizing, it is doing so at the weakest level in decades.” The Chief Economists Outlook, published three times a year, surveys leading chief economists from across industries and international organizations. The latest edition explores key trends in the global economy, includi...
How China got to be the market leader for electric vehicles and what the US can do to catch up
Asia, China, Market

How China got to be the market leader for electric vehicles and what the US can do to catch up

The U.S. blinked, and China built an electric vehicle empire. "They're taking over the world, except North America," said Lei Xing, a Chinese auto industry expert. "The U.S. will be the last frontier." In the last 15 years, China has rolled out a public charging network over 10 million strong, convinced billions of drivers to go electric by dangling subsidies and other incentives, and introduced over 100 EV brands with a bevy of pricing options. The push exemplifies "China Speed," a term Xing used to describe the country's hypersonic development. The speed and scale of the shift has slingshotted China past the U.S. and every other nation in the transition to electric vehicles, while also positioning Chinese automakers near the front of the pack to dominat...
China Is Not Rich, But It Has Become Powerful
Asia, China

China Is Not Rich, But It Has Become Powerful

On Aug. 22, China commemorated the 120th anniversary of the birth of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, whose market reforms catapulted China from famine-stricken communist backwater to global economic power. Xi praised Deng for his contribution to the party and the nation. Despite the two leaders’ common goal of a powerful China, however, Xi’s strategy for achieving it markedly differs from Deng’s. By extending his reign as China’s paramount leader beyond the two-term limit favored by Deng and making no preparations for a transition of power during his lifetime, Xi has discarded one of Deng’s main ideas for ensuring long-term political stability. Whereas Deng emphasized market reforms, Xi is reasserting centralized control by the party-state. But the most remarkable change ha...
China announces several economic stimulus plans.
China, Market

China announces several economic stimulus plans.

China's central bank has unveiled a major package of measures aimed at reviving the country's flagging economy. People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng announced plans to lower borrowing costs and allow banks to increase their lending. The move comes after a series of disappointing data has increased expectations in recent months that the world's second largest economy will miss its own 5% growth target this year. Stock markets in Asia jumped after Mr Pan's announcement. Speaking at a rare news conference alongside officials from two other financial regulators, Mr Pan said the central bank would cut the amount of cash banks have to hold in reserve - known as reserve requirement ratios (RRR). The RRR will initially be cut by half a percentage point, in a move ex...
Asia, China, Market

China boosts its struggling economy with its most aggressive intervention in years.

China’s central bank has cut interest rates in an attempt to revive flagging economic growth and prevent scores of debt-laden property owners from going bust in its boldest intervention to boost the economy since the pandemic. Adopting a suite of measures to reduce borrowing costs, the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates on existing mortgages by 0.5 percentage points and supported new lending by reducing the level of reserves banks must set aside before making loans. The bank’s governor, Pan Gongsheng, said he would also ease restrictions on borrowing to invest in stocks and shares on Chinese exchanges, boosting the Shanghai composite index by more than 4% within hours of the announcement. Oil prices rose, with Brent crude up more than 1% at nearly $75 a barrel. The central...
China, Market

To boost its economy, China unleashes a financial bazooka.

What’s happened? On September 24th a series of policies were announced by China’s three top financial officials at a press conference to backstop the stalling economy. These notably included a 20-basis-point cut to the seven-day reverse repo rate (RRR; the policy interest rate); a 50-basis-point cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR); a rate cut on existing mortgages; capital replenishment of large state-owned banks; and other measures to support the housing and the stock markets. Why does it matter? The rare, simultaneous rollout of so many measures highlights the urgency for policymakers to prop up the economy. We believe that real GDP growth this year will miss the government’s annual target, and may even undershoot our own conservative growth forecast of 4.7%. The cuts to...
<strong>China is looking all set for a recession</strong>
China, USA, World

China is looking all set for a recession

Ray Dalio the owner of American investment management firm, Bridgewater Associates which helps top investors worldwide to grow their money, in a recent interview with Bloomberg television, said that he had sold most of the investments in China. He warned that China was facing serious economic problems. “You have an environment in China which is changing and becoming a more difficult environment,” Dalio said. The trouble is evident in the stock market. The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index is on a free fall for more than two years. Investors both foreign and domestic are divesting investments to stop loss. Foreign investors are going to other emerging markets. Chinese nationals are holding on cash or buying gold coins and bars to prevent further erosion of personal wealth. “The...
China, Market

Et tu, Milei? Is Argentina Regaining Contact with China?

When Mauricio Macri was elected president of Argentina in 2015 as leader of the center-right coalition Cambiemos, he adopted a confrontational stance on China, distancing himself from the approach of his predecessor, Cristina Kirchner. He instead privileged relations with the United States and other Western powers to “reinsert Argentina into the world.” It did not last. By the end of his first year in office, Macri had signed a series of economic agreements with Beijing. By the end of his administration in 2019, China had consolidated its role as a strategic partner. Similarly, Javier Milei came to the Casa Rosada skeptical about Argentina’s friendship with China. In his case, however, the libertarian leader also brought an ultra-ideological and personalistic approach to foreign policy...
<strong>China targets Canadian Canola amid trade dispute</strong>
China, World

China targets Canadian Canola amid trade dispute

Trade wars are a common occurrence in the global market, and the friction between China and Canada is no exception. These conflicts are often fuelled by geopolitical issues. Back in 2019, China halted Canadian meat imports after Huawei’s CEO, Meng Wanzhou, was detained. Officially, China blamed banned feed additives in the meat, but many saw it as a diplomatic move in response to the Ottawa-Beijing rift. Now, China is considering probing Canada for allegedly dumping canola into its market. In the realm of international trade, dumping refers to selling a product at a lower price in a foreign market than in the domestic one, essentially a form of price discrimination. Following Canada’s imposition of a 100% tariff on electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium from Chin...