China: Unbalanced economic resilience at home, rising trade tensions and conflict risks abroad
Event
China’s economic activity continues to show signs of resilience but with discrepancies among growth drivers. Besides, China is facing rising external risks, from trade to conflicts in Asia.
Impact
The Chinese economy grew by 5.3% YoY in the first quarter of 2024. In an upward revision from the IMF, it is expected that the country’s GDP growth will reach 5% this year (i.e. slightly less than +5.2% in 2023) while a deceleration to +4.5% in 2025 is still forecast, pursuing the structural economic slowdown. Industrial production, investments and particularly exports tend to support growth. Nevertheless, domestic demand continues to be relatively weak given the households’ confidence crisis – exacerbated by high youth unemployment – deleveraging local governments and a continuin...