China

China might collapse due to a trade war. For Beijing, Trump’s timing couldn’t be worse.
5Feb mmBy Walter ParezNo Comments
China, Market

China might collapse due to a trade war. For Beijing, Trump’s timing couldn’t be worse.

Even though it is Chinese New Year this week, Beijing has wasted no time in hitting back at Trump’s additional 10% tariff on all US imports from China. For now, though, this remains a mere skirmish, yet to escalate into a full-blown trade war — it could yet lead to some sort of negotiation and agreement. We’ve seen this already in Mexico and Canada. The risk, though, is that while these north American countries are neighbours and supposedly America’s allies, China is a strategic adversary. Trade conflict is a symptom of deeper political and economic tensions. The problem for China is that its economy is not well positioned to weather a new major external shock.For now, a 10% tariff increase would have a minor impact, maybe subtracting about 0.2% from Chinese GDP in 2025 — a fairly trivial...
Read More
To what extent will the trade conflict with China worsen?
5Feb mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China

To what extent will the trade conflict with China worsen?

The first punches have been thrown between the United States and China in what could amount to a short-lived trade dispute with limited economic fallout or the start of yet another lengthy and painful trade war reminiscent of President Donald Trump’s first term. Immediately after a new 10% tariff on all Chinese goods shipped to the US went into effect on Tuesday at 12:01 a.m. ET, China responded by announcing a 15% tariff on some goods it imports from the US: certain types of coal and liquefied natural gas and a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-displacement cars and pickup trucks. Those tariffs are set to take effect on MondayChina’s Commerce Ministry also added two American firms — biotech company Illumina and fashion retailer PVH Group, owner of Calvin Klein and...
Read More
<strong>The People’s Bank of China: Caught in a policy bind amid the yuan’s decline</strong>
4Feb mmBy Walter ParezNo Comments
China

The People’s Bank of China: Caught in a policy bind amid the yuan’s decline

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, finds itself in a challenging and delicate position as it grapples with the declining value of the Chinese yuan.  For years, Xi Jinping’s administration has aimed to elevate the yuan’s global status, positioning it as a potential challenger to the dominance of the US dollar in international trade and finance.  However, the current situation has complicated these ambitions.  The yuan’s ongoing depreciation is not just an economic issue but also a political one, undermining the goals set by the Chinese leadership.  Donald Trump’s election has further complicated Beijing’s already challenging policy landscape.  Even before Trump won the presidency, the PBOC was grappling with a difficult polic...
Read More
China Responds to US Companies as Trade Tensions Increase
4Feb mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China

China Responds to US Companies as Trade Tensions Increase

China announced a range of different measures on Tuesday targeting US businesses such as Google, plus more in other sectors almost immediately after new Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods took effect. Beijing hit back with 15% tariffs on US coal and natural gas, plus measures on some autos in a rapid response to the duties President Trump put on Chinese goods days earlier, ratcheting up trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies. Several US corporations such as PVH Corp, the holding company for brands like Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, plus US biotechnology firm Illumina were put on Beijing’s “unreliable entity” list. It said the two companies took what it called “discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises” and “damaged” the legitimate rights and interests...
Read More
As Trump tariffs go into force, China targets Google, coal, and gas in the United States.
4Feb mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China

As Trump tariffs go into force, China targets Google, coal, and gas in the United States.

China is not taking the Trump administration's tariffs sitting down. On Tuesday, shortly after the 10% tariffs took effect just past midnight on the U.S. East Coast, Beijing announced a raft of countermeasures. Those include 15% tariffs on American coal and liquefied natural gas and 10% tariffs on crude oil, farm equipment and certain other vehicles. The Chinese counter-tariffs are slated to take effect on Feb. 10. In a statement, the Chinese finance ministry said the U.S. tariffs "severely violate World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, and not only fail to address [America's] own problems but also disrupt normal economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States." In addition, China's market regulator announced an anti-monopoly investigation into Google. And th...
Read More
Global power shift: Economic Survey warns that “there is no guarantee that the world united can defeat China.”
31Jan mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China

Global power shift: Economic Survey warns that “there is no guarantee that the world united can defeat China.”

China's rapid industrial expansion is reshaping the global economic order. According to the Economic Survey 2025, UNIDO projects that China will account for 45% of all global manufacturing by 2030, surpassing the United States and its allies combined. "Just thirty years later, UNIDO projects that China will account for 45 per cent of all global manufacturing, singlehandedly matching or outmatching the US and its allies. This is a level of manufacturing dominance by a single country seen only twice before in world history—by the UK at the start of the Industrial Revolution and by the US just after World War 2. It means that in an extended war of production, there is no guarantee that the entire world united could defeat China alone." China's rise is not just about production volume—i...
Read More
China’s Empty Trains: New Year Travel Plummets Amid Economic Crisis
31Jan mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China

China’s Empty Trains: New Year Travel Plummets Amid Economic Crisis

This year in China, the Spring Festival lacks its usual glitter, bustling markets, and the throngs of travellers returning to their hometowns. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, China's economic situation has deteriorated significantly, resulting in the loss of hundreds of jobs. Those who are still employed are receiving only half their wages. Consequently, people are spending their limited savings very cautiously. Many have decided not to return home for the Spring Festival. As a result, the number of people traveling by road, rail, and air has been negligible. Some travellers reported that their train cars were completely empty. A passenger found himself alone in an entire first-class train car during the Spring Festival travel rush. Unlike the usual crowded scenes of previous years, t...
Read More
As it increases its stake on Asia, HSBC’s worldwide reputation is at risk.
29Jan mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China

As it increases its stake on Asia, HSBC’s worldwide reputation is at risk.

HSBC Chairman Mark Tucker leaned into the microphone at a vast conference table in Beijing, telling British business leaders and senior Chinese officials that he spoke for all UK businesses present in hoping for stronger economic ties.Tucker, chairman of Europe's largest bank, was flanked by UK finance minister Rachel Reeves, who had invited him to lead a delegation aimed at enlisting Chinese support for Britain's growth agenda."It is more important than ever that we accelerate and sustain the forward momentum with a clear focus on the material and mutually beneficial agenda," he told Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and others at the opening of the UK-China Financial Services Summit, news footage of the event on Jan. 11 showed.Just a few weeks later, the lender would reveal plans to wind d...
Read More
Outside of China, the Middle East is the region with the fastest-growing renewable energy market.
28Jan mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China

Outside of China, the Middle East is the region with the fastest-growing renewable energy market.

But then Masdar, the country’s state-owned renewable energy company, decided to make a splash at a huge trade fair in Abu Dhabi. In front of the UAE president, it announced it would build a $6bn 5 gigawatt solar plant backed with more than 19GWh of battery storage — the largest such project ever attempted.  When it starts in two years’ time, its batteries will give the country a constant output of 1GW, enough to power more than 700,000 homes without having to rely on gas-fired plants when the sun is not shining. “This will transform renewable energy into baseload energy,” said Sultan Al Jaber, the chair of Masdar. “It is a first step that could become a giant leap.” As the UAE was revealing its new solar project, Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, announced a ...
Read More
China’s PMI is unexpected as January manufacturing activity declines and December industrial profits soar.
26Jan mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China

China’s PMI is unexpected as January manufacturing activity declines and December industrial profits soar.

China’s factory activity in January unexpectedly contracted, in part due to a slow season ahead of the Lunar New year, reversing the growth seen in the previous three months and keeping alive calls for stronger fiscal support to boost the economy. The official purchasing managers’ index for January came in at 49.1, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed, compared with Reuters poll estimates of 50.1. PMI had stayed above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction for the past three months, coming in at 50.1 in December, 50.3 in November and 50.1 in October, according to the official data. The manufacturing PMI in January tends to be softer, as migrant workers return to hometowns ahead of the Chinese New Year, which falls on Jan. 29, said Hui...
Read More