China Archives - Page 24 of 80

In 2025, Chinese economic stimulus will somewhat offset US tariffs.

4Dec

By Joe RodriguezNo Comments

China, Market

In 2025, Chinese economic stimulus will somewhat offset US tariffs.

China’s economy is projected by Goldman Sachs Research to grow at a slower pace in 2025, as the government’s stimulus efforts partially offset the impact of potential tariffs from the US. Real GDP growth is predicted to decelerate to 4.5% next year from 4.9% in 2024. Goldman Sachs Research’s forecast assumes a 20 percentage-point increase in the effective tariff rate imposed by the incoming Trump administration on Chinese goods, which would weigh on China’s real GDP by 0.7 percentage point in 2025. The forecast also assumes that Chinese policymakers will introduce fresh stimulus to blunt the impact of tariffs. “The choice in front of Chinese policymakers is simple: either to provide a large dose of policy offset or to accept a notably lower headline real GDP growth,” Chief China Eco...

A new dollar bloc: Reglobalization in the face of United States-China hostilities

3Dec

By Online DeskNo Comments

Asia, China, Market, USA

A new dollar bloc: Reglobalization in the face of United States-China hostilities

The fragmenting of free trade and the rise of industrial policy have resulted in the nascent formation of a trade, finance and currency bloc organized around American economic and security interests. Although not formalized, the democracies in the West and their primary trading partners in Asia, excluding China, appear to be coalescing around mutual economic and security interests in a de facto dollar bloc, with the U.S. Federal Reserve as the lender of last resort. A trading bloc of democracies would include more than 56% of the world’s gross domestic product. China, by contrast, has a 16.8% share of world GDP, while India has 3.4% and Russia 1.9%. In some respects, this dollar bloc evolved out of the crucible of the 2008−09 financial crisis and lessons learned around supply cha...

A crisis in Taiwan is a problem in China.

2Dec

By Joe RodriguezNo Comments

China, World

A crisis in Taiwan is a problem in China.

The European Union needs a China contingency. Government and corporate decision-makers may be preparing for a possible Chinese military attack on Taiwan, but they must also focus on how a Taiwan crisis will impact China and, consequently, the EU’s economic security. Largely on account of Taiwan’s prominent position in the global semiconductor industry, a Chinese attack on the island will inflict trillions of dollars in costs on the global economy. But a Taiwan crisis also threatens to disrupt China-centered production and supply chains for green technologies, such as electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines, as well as create unprecedented geopolitical risk for European companies in China. The economic costs of a limited conflictJapanese observers of East Asian geopolitics ...

China’s EV domination is humiliated by Europe’s battery issue.

30Nov

By Joe RodriguezNo Comments

Asia, China

China’s EV domination is humiliated by Europe’s battery issue.

While many businesses worldwide are wringing their hands about Donald Trump’s plans for a “beautiful” tariff war – targeting Canada, Mexico and China on his first day back in the Oval Office – my attention was focused on the sub-Arctic town of Skelleftea in Sweden and the collapse of Northvolt, Europe’s electric-vehicle battery champion. Richard Milne at the Financial Times called Northvolt’s resort to Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, with US$5.8 billion of debts and just US$30 million cash in its coffers, a “Nordic noir thriller”. The collapse is nothing less than a dagger thrust into the heart of Europe’s future as a global automotive industry leader. Volkswagen has written down most of its 21 per cent stake in the venture. Goldman Sachs is writing off US$896 million in th...

29Nov

By Brian ThompsonNo Comments

Asia, China, Market

Asia in denial

I saw nothing but denial in my recent post-US election tour of Asia, with stops in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Singapore. Taking a cue from surging global equity markets, Asians are making every effort to wish away problems at home and abroad. Nowhere is this more evident than in China. President Xi Jinping has long stressed his preference for the “good stories of China” (bit.ly/3Z8EI75). Amid the most serious Chinese economic slowdown since the 1970s, government attempts to put a positive spin (bit.ly/3Ozky0R) on the country’s outlook have intensified. An improvement in equity-market sentiment (bit.ly/4fL6ZaO) — by October 8, the CSI 300 was 35% above its low on September 13 — was the first talking point in all my discussions. Never mind that this rebound, which has si...

The diplomatic ties between China and Pakistan have reached a low point.

28Nov

By Joe RodriguezNo Comments

Asia, China

The diplomatic ties between China and Pakistan have reached a low point.

As if Pakistan’s government wasn’t under pressure enough – with thousands of protesters on the streets and the capital Islamabad in lockdown amid calls to release former prime minister Imran Khan – relations with neighbouring China are also going from bad to worse. Beijing’s growing anger over the safety of its citizens in Pakistan has been illustrated by a surprising diplomatic spat. “It is unacceptable for us to be attacked twice in only six months,” declared China’s ambassador in Islamabad Jiang Zaidong in an unusually direct response to comments made by a senior Pakistan politician seen to be downplaying the risk. “President Xi [Jinping] cares about Chinese people’s security and puts people’s lives first,” Jiang went on to say. “He especially cares about the security of t...

28Nov

By Joe RodriguezNo Comments

Asia, China, World

The diplomatic ties between China and Pakistan have reached a low point.

As if Pakistan’s government wasn’t under pressure enough – with thousands of protesters on the streets and the capital Islamabad in lockdown amid calls to release former prime minister Imran Khan – relations with neighbouring China are also going from bad to worse. Beijing’s growing anger over the safety of its citizens in Pakistan has been illustrated by a surprising diplomatic spat. “It is unacceptable for us to be attacked twice in only six months,” declared China’s ambassador in Islamabad Jiang Zaidong in an unusually direct response to comments made by a senior Pakistan politician seen to be downplaying the risk. “President Xi [Jinping] cares about Chinese people’s security and puts people’s lives first,” Jiang went on to say. “He especially cares about the security of t...

Beyond the inner ring of the Communist Party, a small group of well-known economists make up the “brain trust” that shapes economic policy.

28Nov

By Walter ParezNo Comments

Asia, China, Market

Beyond the inner ring of the Communist Party, a small group of well-known economists make up the “brain trust” that shapes economic policy.

Who truly has Beijing’s ear when it comes to economic policymaking? As China navigates a period of profound economic challenges, this question has taken on new urgency. While outsiders often perceive China’s economic policies as dictated in a top-down, insulated manner, the reality is more nuanced. Policy-making in Beijing frequently involves regular engagement with trusted experts through roundtables, study sessions, and advisory committees. The voices shaping economic strategy extend beyond the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s inner circle to include a select “brain trust” of economists whose ideas inform and influence key decisions. To understand China’s policy direction, it is crucial to identify this brain trust. Our project does just that by analyzing the perspectives of econom...

<strong>China’s banking crisis deepens: Transfer limits slashed to $69</strong>

28Nov

By Joe RodriguezNo Comments

China

China’s banking crisis deepens: Transfer limits slashed to $69

China's economy continues to decline and following the frenzy of real estate investment the country's banking system has plunged into a crisis. Citizens are not only grappling with unemployment and wage cuts but are also facing difficulties in withdrawing funds from their bank accounts. Many users believe that the reduction in bank card transfer for limits is a deliberate measure to restrict Capital outflows, according to a recent report by Beijing News Shell Finance numerous bankcard users have found their accounts subject to transfer limits without prior notification. Many people have gone to Bank branches to withdraw cash in order to restore normal use of their accounts while some card holders have simply given up using their cards altogether. Since the second half of this year ...

The US-China tech battle has reached a “turning point” with Huawei’s latest smartphone.

26Nov

By Mike TrudellNo Comments

Asia, China, Market, USA, World

The US-China tech battle has reached a “turning point” with Huawei’s latest smartphone.

Huawei is set to launch its latest smartphone this week, complete with a new, made-in-China operating system — a first for a Chinese company and an indication of the progress the country’s tech companies have made, despite US sanctions. Unlike previous Huawei phones, which used an operating system built on Google’s Android, the new Mate 70 smartphone will run entirely on the company’s own HarmonyOS Next. Huawei hopes the system will be able to compete with the dominant incumbents, Apple’s iOS and Android, which together power around 98% of all smartphones globally, The Economist noted. Building a fully independent operating system “is no mean feat,” The Economist noted, because it requires persuading enough developers to spend time creating apps specifically for the new system:...

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