China

<strong>Will economic blight persist in China even in 2024?</strong>
China

Will economic blight persist in China even in 2024?

After China’s most powerful leader Deng Xiaoping introduced a free-enterprise system and reforms into the country’s economy in the 1980s, his successors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao gave further momentum to the country’s growth. Under President Hu Jintao’s two-five-year term, China’s average growth remained around 10%--a spectacular performance that saw the country’s development in almost all sectors. But today, China under President Xi Jinping is faltering economically, politically, and diplomatically. It is struggling to keep the gross domestic product growth rate in the 4-5% range in 2024 to “vigorously” promote investment, said Financial Times. Import of Chinese goods to the American market declined by more than 20% in the January-November period, according to the US Commerce Departme...
<strong>The Reality of China’s Investments in Developing Nations</strong>
China

The Reality of China’s Investments in Developing Nations

In the complex landscape of global geopolitics, the involvement of major powers in the development of smaller nations has often been a double-edged sword. China's increasing presence in countries like the Maldives, Africa, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and others has sparked debates about the nature and consequences of its investments. Critics argue that China's strategy involves leveraging economic opportunities to extend its influence, creating a debt trap that may ultimately lead these nations to financial instability and ultimate bankruptcy. Therefore, it is important to delve into the unfolding narratives in the Maldives and explore parallels with South Asian and African nations, examining the implications of China's predatory economic engagement. The Maldives, often glamorized as a picturesq...
<strong>Unmasking the Chinese Loans: China’s BRI Debt Crisis and Imperatives for 2024</strong>
China

Unmasking the Chinese Loans: China’s BRI Debt Crisis and Imperatives for 2024

In the realm of global economic dynamics, China has emerged as the preeminent bilateral lender, wielding influence through its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, behind the façade of economic cooperation lies a landscape rife with challenges, particularly concerning the debt distress faced by some BRI borrowers. Therefore, it is important to critically delve and understand the labyrinth of issues surrounding China's lending practices, exposing the perils and policy choices that will determine its ability to support debtors and avoid entrapment in a web of unpaid debts. China's audacious vision for the Belt and Road Initiative has been met with skepticism and criticism, with the United States expressing justified concerns about its potential to undermine values and inter...
China’s economy experienced a dismal year. 2024 might be much more dire.
China, Market, World

China’s economy experienced a dismal year. 2024 might be much more dire.

The Chinese economy was expected to recover quickly in 2023 and resume its role as the undisputed engine of global growth. Instead, it stalled to the point where it’s being called a “drag” on world output by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), among others. Despite its many problems — a property crisis, weak spending and high youth unemployment — most economists think the world’s second largest economy will hit its official growth target of around 5% this year. But that is still below the 6%-plus annual growth averaged in the decade before the Covid pandemic, and 2024 is increasingly looking ominous, they said. The country may be staring at decades of stagnation thereafter. “The 2024 challenge for the Chinese economy will not be GDP growth — that will likely be above 4.5%,” sa...
Chinese Economy At The Crossroad: The Unprecedented Foreign Investment Exodus And Its Multifaceted Implications
China

Chinese Economy At The Crossroad: The Unprecedented Foreign Investment Exodus And Its Multifaceted Implications

Foreign companies doing business in China are sending shockwaves through the economy. In a surprising economic shift, China has witnessed a substantial downturn in foreign investment, reaching a near four-year low of $7.5 billion in November, meticulously calculated by Bloomberg based on Ministry of Commerce data. This significant 19.5% drop from the previous year is indicative of a challenging economic phase gripping the nation. Throughout the year, the overall investment scenario has painted a broader picture of concern, experiencing a 10% decline to $1.04 trillion. The disconcerting revelation from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange further accentuates the narrative, revealing foreign investment in China turning negative for the first time since 1998. This paradigm shift sugg...
Why India can likely outperform China for a fourth straight year in 2024
China, World

Why India can likely outperform China for a fourth straight year in 2024

India's economic growth (nominal growth that exceeded 12 percent in 2023, and which could come in at the same level or even higher in 2024) and improvement in currency stability relative to China are the factors in India's favour MSCI India is moving towards a third straight year of outperformance of MSCI China in 2023. India is currently our top pick in Asia ex-Japan / emerging markets (EM) equities, and we think a fourth straight year of outperformance of EM and China is likely in 2024. Central to our bullish view on India versus China's performance is the trend in earnings. Starting in early 2021, MSCI India US dollar earnings per share (EPS) has grown this cycle by 61 percent versus a decline of 18 percent for MSCI China. As a result, Indian earnings have powered ahead on a rela...
What is the outline of China’s economic policy for 2024?
China, World

What is the outline of China’s economic policy for 2024?

How does the shift towards a domestic demand-led growth strategy align with China’s long-term economic goals, and what are the anticipated challenges in transitioning away from export-led growth? The 2023 Chinese Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), an annual meeting mechanism of the Communist Party where the economic direction of the nation for the upcoming year is deliberated and agreed upon by key stakeholders, recently concluded on December 12, and the readout from the meeting stresses a stability-oriented pathway for the Chinese economy in 2024. Overall, the line of action seems pretty clear, at least from the CEWC deliberations - moving away from export-led to domestic demand-led growth, expanding high-quality production process, achieving self-reliance in critical tech but c...
<strong>Economic Impact of Chinese invasion of Taiwan</strong>
Asia, China

Economic Impact of Chinese invasion of Taiwan

A recent tweet on Chinese strategy with regard to Taiwan is quite revelatory. A book titled “If China Attacks” being sold in Taipei was purchased by a NG activist named Cynthia Iuun. Sometime after she had purchased the book she started receiving calls from anonymous callers, obviously Chinese asking what she thought of the book. Clearly, a Chinese intelligence psychological warfare operation ahead of the Presidential Elections in Taiwan, the narrative also indicates the larger Chinese strategy for eventually reunited Taiwan with the Chinese mainland. The very task of estimating an eventual takeover by China is challenging to say the least. In this context, it is worth citing Derek Grossman who recently tweeted that, "Chinese President Xi Jinping bluntly told President Joe Biden during th...
After a rocky recovery, China’s economy will confront significant challenges in 2024.
China, World

After a rocky recovery, China’s economy will confront significant challenges in 2024.

The world’s second-largest economy is heading into 2024 on a precarious footing amid deep-seated structural issues. The Chinese economy’s precarious footing looks set to continue into 2024, as deep-seated structural issues and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s consolidation of political control threaten to dampen growth. China’s reopening after the lifting of its harsh “zero-COVID” restrictions in January coincided with challenging economic conditions overseas, as soaring inflation made consumers less inclined to buy Chinese goods. At home, Chinese consumers were wary to start spending again after nearly two years of lockdowns and border closures. In July, China bucked the global trend and entered a period of deflation, which it struggled to exit in the second half of the year. ...
In uncertain economic times, China’s young compete for solid government positions.
China, World

In uncertain economic times, China’s young compete for solid government positions.

The number of candidates taking China’s civil service exam reaches a record high as graduates seek secure jobs. But only a lucky few will land employment in the government. A good result on China’s annual national civil service exam is a requirement for any Chinese candidate who wants to be considered for the tens of thousands of vacant civil service jobs that the government seeks to fill every year. When 22-year-old recent graduate Du Xin sat down for the exam in December last year at a test centre in the city of Shijiazhuang in China’s Hebei province, she had been studying vigorously for six months. Some applicants even hire tutors to prepare them for the exam. Candidates are tested broadly on their general knowledge and analytical skills while in more recent years they have...