China

India's economic growth (nominal growth that exceeded 12 percent in 2023, and which could come in at the same level or even higher in 2024) and improvement in currency stability relative to China are the factors in India's favour MSCI India is moving towards a third straight year of outperformance of MSCI China in 2023. India is currently our top pick in Asia ex-Japan / emerging markets (EM) equities, and we think a fourth straight year of outperformance of EM and China is likely in 2024. Central to our bullish view on India versus China's performance is the trend in earnings. Starting in early 2021, MSCI India US dollar earnings per share (EPS) has grown this cycle by 61 percent versus a decline of 18 percent for MSCI China. As a result, Indian earnings have powered ahead on a rela...

How does the shift towards a domestic demand-led growth strategy align with China’s long-term economic goals, and what are the anticipated challenges in transitioning away from export-led growth? The 2023 Chinese Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), an annual meeting mechanism of the Communist Party where the economic direction of the nation for the upcoming year is deliberated and agreed upon by key stakeholders, recently concluded on December 12, and the readout from the meeting stresses a stability-oriented pathway for the Chinese economy in 2024. Overall, the line of action seems pretty clear, at least from the CEWC deliberations - moving away from export-led to domestic demand-led growth, expanding high-quality production process, achieving self-reliance in critical tech but c...

The world’s second-largest economy is heading into 2024 on a precarious footing amid deep-seated structural issues. The Chinese economy’s precarious footing looks set to continue into 2024, as deep-seated structural issues and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s consolidation of political control threaten to dampen growth. China’s reopening after the lifting of its harsh “zero-COVID” restrictions in January coincided with challenging economic conditions overseas, as soaring inflation made consumers less inclined to buy Chinese goods. At home, Chinese consumers were wary to start spending again after nearly two years of lockdowns and border closures. In July, China bucked the global trend and entered a period of deflation, which it struggled to exit in the second half of the year. ...

The number of candidates taking China’s civil service exam reaches a record high as graduates seek secure jobs. But only a lucky few will land employment in the government. A good result on China’s annual national civil service exam is a requirement for any Chinese candidate who wants to be considered for the tens of thousands of vacant civil service jobs that the government seeks to fill every year. When 22-year-old recent graduate Du Xin sat down for the exam in December last year at a test centre in the city of Shijiazhuang in China’s Hebei province, she had been studying vigorously for six months. Some applicants even hire tutors to prepare them for the exam. Candidates are tested broadly on their general knowledge and analytical skills while in more recent years they have...

China’s leaders pledged to continue proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies.Policy language stresses on stability and “moderately strengthening” fiscal policy are similar to a Politburo statement last Friday.China’s leaders commit to nine-point plan to revive the economy with a focus on high-quality development, including measures to boost domestic demand and tackle the spiraling real estate crisis in the world’s second-largest economy. China’s leaders vowed to boost domestic demand, prioritize the development of strategic sectors and tackle the country’s real estate crisis, following a key meeting that laid out economic priorities for the new year. Under a new slogan pledging to achieve stability through economic progress, Chinese leaders said it’s necessary to over...

China’s state assets supervisor has warned government firms to be mindful of financial risk as smaller banks, property firms report heavy debt loads Cautionary words show concerns over financial health not limited to institutions more local in scope China’s state assets watchdog has identified four areas within enterprises run by the central government worthy of careful monitoring – trust companies, finance subsidiaries, private equity and commercial factoring – indicating a tendency towards risk control running deep throughout the country’s economy. Including state-owned industrial giants in a call for mitigation of systemic shortfalls shows the uncertainty generated by solvency concerns over local government financing vehicles, property firms and smaller banks is not strictly...