China

Asia, China, Market

Xi is immobilized due to China’s economic chaos. The entire world will compensate.

Just about everyone has a view on China’s economic troubles. Its deepening property crisis, deflationary currents, and increasing protests are all Asia observers can talk about. Yet one very important voice is barely saying a word about the state of Asia’s biggest economy: President Xi Jinping. This is true both rhetorically and by way of policy actions. The deafening silence on the latter front is especially perplexing as virtually every Chinese growth engine—from investment to exports to household spending—sputters. Less quiet are commodity traders bidding down prices of oil, copper, and other commodities as China turns further inward. Hopes for smoke signals from Beijing that fresh stimulus might be coming are being dashed day after day. And keeping global marke...
Asia, China, Market

China’s central bank advances interest rate reform, and other economy stories to read this week

1. China's central bank furthers move to market-driven credit China's central bank is shifting its focus from the size of credit to its cost, aiming for a more market-driven interest rate system. However, the transition faces challenges from liquidity risks and uncooperative markets. This move, while crucial for broader financial reforms, is expected to be gradual, with the People's Bank of China facing significant hurdles as it works to balance reform goals with economic stability. "We are moving in the direction of developing market-based interest rates, but it's an arduous task and the road is long," a government adviser told Reuters anonymously. China's factory activity likely contracted for the fourth consecutive month in August, according to a recent Reuters po...
Asia, China, Market

How deeply rooted are China’s economic woes?

China’s slowdown shaped by four major problems China’s economy has continued to struggle in 2024, laying to rest any remaining hopes of a strong post-pandemic recovery. Instead of a rapid rebound as many analysts predicted, China’s reopening boom never materialised. It also appears that the Chinese government is not inclined to make major changes to its economic management and the high-profile Third Plenum came and went without significant reforms being announced. The country’s economic trajectory can be traced back to four major issues: first, the real estate market is in a protracted downturn; second, Chinese consumers have held back their spending after the economy reopened; third, deteriorating local government finances threaten a sharp slowdown in investment; and...
China, Market

China’s unemployment conundrum and its implications for global trade

China’s unemployment crisis underscores the broader challenges facing the country’s economic model. The combination of a deteriorating economy at home, falling consumption, overcapacity, excessive domestic competition in the labor market, and inadequate policy intervention now threaten China's long-term macroeconomic stability. These factors are stoking trade tensions for China abroad. How bad exactly is unemployment in China? Consider these examples: An increasing number of fresh college graduates are joining the gig economy by taking low-skilled jobs such as delivering food as they struggle to find jobs commensurate with their degrees. The number of people under the age of 25 who applied for manual jobs in the first quarter of 2024 surged 165% compared with the same period in 2019....
PwC, a ‘Big 4’ auditing company, is apparently prepared for a six-month suspension in China.
China, World

PwC, a ‘Big 4’ auditing company, is apparently prepared for a six-month suspension in China.

Beijing is reportedly considering a huge fine on PwC in addition to the business ban. The fine could go as high as 1 billion yuan ($140 million), Bloomberg reported in May, which would be the largest fine imposed on an auditing firm in China.  Regulators are scrutinizing PwC for its role in auditing China Evergrande Group, the embattled property developer that has become the poster child of China’s property crisis. In March, authorities accused Evergrande of inflating its revenue by almost $80 billion in 2019 and 2020.  Evergrande defaulted on its debts in 2021, helping to trigger China’s still-ongoing real estate crisis, which is continuing to drag down the economy. A Hong Kong court ordered Evergrande’s liquidation earlier this yea...
China, Market, World

Chinese Ambassador to The Bahamas Yan Jiarong Holds a Dialogue with Bahamian Business Leaders

On 20th August, 2024, Ms. Yan Jiarong, Chinese Ambassador to The Bahamas held a dialogue with Bahamian business leaders. Mr. Ingraham, Chairman of the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation, Mr. Peng Jing, Chief of Economic and Commercial Affairs of the Embassy attended the dialogue. Yan briefed achievements of Chinese modernization, highlighting that China’s economy has gained a firm footing and maintained a positive momentum, and the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee has conveyed a clear message of furthering high-standard opening up, which will bring new opportunities for China-Bahamas economic and trade cooperation. The two sides had in-depth exchanges on strengthening cooperation in trade, tourism, agriculture, culture, etc.  ...
Asia, China, Market

The “Sovietization Trap”: The Reason for China’s Economic Troubles

As China’s economic growth slows, many are noting similarities between China and Japan before and after the collapse of the latter’s bubble economy. Will China really follow in Japan’s footsteps? Wu Junhua of the Japan Research Institute disagrees, suggesting that the biggest risk facing China’s economy is “Sovietization,” not “Japanization.” “Sovietization” Has Hindered China’s Development At a time of growing concerns about China’s economic prospects, voices are escalating about the possible “Japanization” of China’s economy. Although many of the problems facing China today, such as an aging population, deteriorating housing market, and accumulated debt, are quite like those faced by Japan before and after the collapse of the bubble economy, the two countries have very different p...
US and China form crisis committee to strengthen financial resiliency.
China, World

US and China form crisis committee to strengthen financial resiliency.

The U.S. Treasury Department and People’s Bank of China (PBOC) have unveiled plans to form a special contact group to manage potential financial stress events. This resolution follows the fifth round of talks in the Financial Working Group, aiming to encourage mutual financial resilience amid increasing interdependence of the two economies. The new contact group’s mission is to handle potential fiscal crises, playing an integral role in decreasing global financial instability. This plan heralds a significant move in U.S.-China economic cooperation. Following U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit to China, the two nations compiled a catalog of critical contacts focused on preserving financial stability. This effort aims to enhance coordination in financial crises times and bet...
Asia, China, Market

China July 2024 Economy: Consumption and Trade Surge Amid Sluggish Industrial Growth

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released the economic data for July 2024, providing a detailed view of the country’s industrial, retail, and investment performance. The figures reveal a mixed economic landscape, with retail sales exceeding expectations, yet industrial production falling short of forecasts. The continued expansion of consumer spending indicates growing domestic demand, despite persistent challenges in the real estate sector and fixed asset investments. As the Chinese government focuses on boosting domestic demand, the challenge of maintaining economic momentum amidst structural adjustments and external uncertainties remains a significant concern moving forward. Industrial growth slows but maintains a steady pace In July, China’s industrial sector e...
Plummeting iron ore prices on the basis of China’s property crisis might wipe out $3 billion from the government budget.
Asia, China, World

Plummeting iron ore prices on the basis of China’s property crisis might wipe out $3 billion from the government budget.

Plummeting iron ore prices could cost the federal government $3 billion in revenue, which is likely to push the budget further into deficit this financial year. China's property market is in a precarious state, which has seen demand for iron ore — the key component for making steel – drop significantly. Australia has done exceptionally well riding the boom in the Chinese economy. But the political and economic uncertainty surrounding the world's two biggest economies — the US and China — points to tougher times ahead. But that decline has accelerated in recent weeks, with prices now sitting around $82 per tonne, which is below the price the Treasury had anticipated at this point. It had forecast the iron ore price gradually declining to settle at $60 per tonne by the first qua...