China

In a series of eight op-eds published in the Communist Party’s mouthpiece newspaper ahead of a meeting that will set the tone for China’s next five years of development, Beijing described the country’s economy as an “unsinkable economic aircraft carrier” capable of withstanding internal and external uncertainties. The articles in People’s Daily, carrying a byline widely seen as representing the party’s Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, touted China’s stability and resilience when compared with Western systems and vowed to ensure that the “broad masses” enjoy the dividends of development.“Through our actions, we show the world that the China ‘economic aircraft carrier’ is unsinkable, unbreakable and indestructible – undaunted by wind or rain, pressing forward relent...

The World Bank on Tuesday raised its 2025 growth forecast for China as part of an overall boost in projections for East Asia and the Pacific, after a summer that saw U.S. tariff-led uncertainty rock the global economy. The World Bank now projects China’s economy to expand by 4.8%, compared with 4% predicted in April. The new forecast is closer to China’s official target of around 5% growth in gross domestic product in 2025. The economists did not provide a specific reason for the change in forecast from April, but noted that China’s economy has benefited from government support that could fade next year. Trade tensions between China and the U.S. escalated in April, temporarily sending U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports to well over 100% before the two countries reached a trade t...

China’s central bank appears increasingly likely to ease its monetary stance in the fourth quarter, according to Goldman Sachs, as economic momentum slows and policymakers face mounting pressure to support growth. The forecast includes a 10-basis-point policy rate cut and a 50-basis-point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which could come as year-on-year growth slows sharply towards 4 per cent from a high base last year, a note released on Saturday said. “But the data-dependent nature of PBOC decision-making leaves open the risk of no action if full-year growth stays on track for the ‘around 5 per cent’ target,” analysts said in the note. The projection followed the central bank’s third-quarter Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on Tuesday, when officials mainta...

China’s industrial policy is not well understood. The fiscal price tag, highlighted in the latest IMF report that Alphaville covered on Tuesday, is eye-poppingly large at around 4.4 per cent of GDP. And the Fund reckons it costs the country a further 2 per cent points of GDP each year in lost productivity. The impact of Chinese industrial policy on the world economy is so large that Donald Trump’s tariffs are, by comparison, a minor nuisance. America’s roughly 8 per cent share of world imports is less than half of China’s share of world exports. And the industrial policy-export nexus is not only aggravating China’s own domestic systemic problems, but becoming increasingly problematic for a growing number of countries. © Brad Setser/Council for Foreign RelationsThe economist Barr...