China

15Jan mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
China, World

Geopolitical and economic forecast 2024: China’s instability and the security of the world

At the end of our three-part look at some of the major challenges the world and the global economy will face in 2024, we examine instability in China and the challenge of global security As we conclude our look at six major geopolitical and economic challenges that the world will face in the coming year in a new three-part blog series, we see that while 2024 is set to be a challenging year for a host of countries, few may have as many internationally consequential difficulties as the People’s Republic of China. A combination of socio-economic and foreign policy challenges will stretch the Chinese government’s attention to an untested degree; while simultaneously armed conflict is again becoming the solution de-jour in international relations, threatening global security. Challenge 5...
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Chinese exports fall 4.6% in the midst of the economic crisis after seven years.
13Jan mmBy Michael SmithNo Comments
China, World

Chinese exports fall 4.6% in the midst of the economic crisis after seven years.

Amid the economic crisis, Chinese exports saw a downfall for the first time since 2016 after global demand for Chinese-made goods slowed in 2023, CNN reported citing the Customs data released on Friday.According to CNN, the Chinese economy is struggling to stem deflationary pressures and consumer price inflation in 2023 was the weakest it has been in 14 years. Chinese exports were measured at USD 3.38 trillion in 2023, down by 4.6 per cent compared to the year before. In 2022, Chinese exports increased by 7 per cent from the year earlier. The last time China registered a decline in overseas shipments was in 2016 when exports fell 7.7 per cent.Imports also fell last year, by 5.5 per cent to USD 2.56 trillion, CNN reported, adding that it left the world's second-largest economy with a tr...
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<strong>Will economic blight persist in China even in 2024?</strong>
12Jan mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China

Will economic blight persist in China even in 2024?

After China’s most powerful leader Deng Xiaoping introduced a free-enterprise system and reforms into the country’s economy in the 1980s, his successors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao gave further momentum to the country’s growth. Under President Hu Jintao’s two-five-year term, China’s average growth remained around 10%--a spectacular performance that saw the country’s development in almost all sectors. But today, China under President Xi Jinping is faltering economically, politically, and diplomatically. It is struggling to keep the gross domestic product growth rate in the 4-5% range in 2024 to “vigorously” promote investment, said Financial Times. Import of Chinese goods to the American market declined by more than 20% in the January-November period, according to the US Commerce Departme...
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<strong>The Reality of China’s Investments in Developing Nations</strong>
9Jan mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
China

The Reality of China’s Investments in Developing Nations

In the complex landscape of global geopolitics, the involvement of major powers in the development of smaller nations has often been a double-edged sword. China's increasing presence in countries like the Maldives, Africa, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and others has sparked debates about the nature and consequences of its investments. Critics argue that China's strategy involves leveraging economic opportunities to extend its influence, creating a debt trap that may ultimately lead these nations to financial instability and ultimate bankruptcy. Therefore, it is important to delve into the unfolding narratives in the Maldives and explore parallels with South Asian and African nations, examining the implications of China's predatory economic engagement. The Maldives, often glamorized as a picturesq...
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<strong>Unmasking the Chinese Loans: China’s BRI Debt Crisis and Imperatives for 2024</strong>
2Jan mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China

Unmasking the Chinese Loans: China’s BRI Debt Crisis and Imperatives for 2024

In the realm of global economic dynamics, China has emerged as the preeminent bilateral lender, wielding influence through its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, behind the façade of economic cooperation lies a landscape rife with challenges, particularly concerning the debt distress faced by some BRI borrowers. Therefore, it is important to critically delve and understand the labyrinth of issues surrounding China's lending practices, exposing the perils and policy choices that will determine its ability to support debtors and avoid entrapment in a web of unpaid debts. China's audacious vision for the Belt and Road Initiative has been met with skepticism and criticism, with the United States expressing justified concerns about its potential to undermine values and inter...
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China’s economy experienced a dismal year. 2024 might be much more dire.
29Dec mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China, Market, World

China’s economy experienced a dismal year. 2024 might be much more dire.

The Chinese economy was expected to recover quickly in 2023 and resume its role as the undisputed engine of global growth. Instead, it stalled to the point where it’s being called a “drag” on world output by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), among others. Despite its many problems — a property crisis, weak spending and high youth unemployment — most economists think the world’s second largest economy will hit its official growth target of around 5% this year. But that is still below the 6%-plus annual growth averaged in the decade before the Covid pandemic, and 2024 is increasingly looking ominous, they said. The country may be staring at decades of stagnation thereafter. “The 2024 challenge for the Chinese economy will not be GDP growth — that will likely be above 4.5%,” sa...
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Chinese Economy At The Crossroad: The Unprecedented Foreign Investment Exodus And Its Multifaceted Implications
29Dec mmBy Michael SmithNo Comments
China

Chinese Economy At The Crossroad: The Unprecedented Foreign Investment Exodus And Its Multifaceted Implications

Foreign companies doing business in China are sending shockwaves through the economy. In a surprising economic shift, China has witnessed a substantial downturn in foreign investment, reaching a near four-year low of $7.5 billion in November, meticulously calculated by Bloomberg based on Ministry of Commerce data. This significant 19.5% drop from the previous year is indicative of a challenging economic phase gripping the nation. Throughout the year, the overall investment scenario has painted a broader picture of concern, experiencing a 10% decline to $1.04 trillion. The disconcerting revelation from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange further accentuates the narrative, revealing foreign investment in China turning negative for the first time since 1998. This paradigm shift sugg...
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Why India can likely outperform China for a fourth straight year in 2024
28Dec mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
China, World

Why India can likely outperform China for a fourth straight year in 2024

India's economic growth (nominal growth that exceeded 12 percent in 2023, and which could come in at the same level or even higher in 2024) and improvement in currency stability relative to China are the factors in India's favour MSCI India is moving towards a third straight year of outperformance of MSCI China in 2023. India is currently our top pick in Asia ex-Japan / emerging markets (EM) equities, and we think a fourth straight year of outperformance of EM and China is likely in 2024. Central to our bullish view on India versus China's performance is the trend in earnings. Starting in early 2021, MSCI India US dollar earnings per share (EPS) has grown this cycle by 61 percent versus a decline of 18 percent for MSCI China. As a result, Indian earnings have powered ahead on a rela...
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What is the outline of China’s economic policy for 2024?
27Dec mmBy Walter ParezNo Comments
China, World

What is the outline of China’s economic policy for 2024?

How does the shift towards a domestic demand-led growth strategy align with China’s long-term economic goals, and what are the anticipated challenges in transitioning away from export-led growth? The 2023 Chinese Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), an annual meeting mechanism of the Communist Party where the economic direction of the nation for the upcoming year is deliberated and agreed upon by key stakeholders, recently concluded on December 12, and the readout from the meeting stresses a stability-oriented pathway for the Chinese economy in 2024. Overall, the line of action seems pretty clear, at least from the CEWC deliberations - moving away from export-led to domestic demand-led growth, expanding high-quality production process, achieving self-reliance in critical tech but c...
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<strong>Economic Impact of Chinese invasion of Taiwan</strong>
23Dec mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
Asia, China

Economic Impact of Chinese invasion of Taiwan

A recent tweet on Chinese strategy with regard to Taiwan is quite revelatory. A book titled “If China Attacks” being sold in Taipei was purchased by a NG activist named Cynthia Iuun. Sometime after she had purchased the book she started receiving calls from anonymous callers, obviously Chinese asking what she thought of the book. Clearly, a Chinese intelligence psychological warfare operation ahead of the Presidential Elections in Taiwan, the narrative also indicates the larger Chinese strategy for eventually reunited Taiwan with the Chinese mainland. The very task of estimating an eventual takeover by China is challenging to say the least. In this context, it is worth citing Derek Grossman who recently tweeted that, "Chinese President Xi Jinping bluntly told President Joe Biden during th...
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