Market Archives - Page 16 of 43

3Sep

By Online DeskNo Comments

Asia, Market

Quarterly economic overview for Southeast Asia: Holding up well

In the second quarter 2024, the economies of Southeast Asia remained steadfastly resilient and broadly delivered credible economic growth, backed by an improvement in domestic and global demand. Southeast Asia’s economies remained resilient and delivered credible economic performance in the second quarter 2024.1 GDP grew in all economies, with Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam recording the fastest rate of year-on-year (y-o-y) growth over the past four quarters. Indonesia experienced a growth plateau and Singapore grew 0.1 percent slower this quarter compared to the previous quarter (Exhibit 1). Growth drivers were nuanced in every Southeast Asian economy, across a combination of strong consumption, output expansion, and higher exports, following an improvement in global...

3Sep

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Asia, Market, USA, World

Global Economic Situation and Outlook Update for September 2024

After years of turbulence and significant volatility in economic output, the world economy is on a more stable trajectory. Global growth performance has held up surprisingly well in the face of recent shocks, including aggressive interest rate hikes by major central banks during 2022–2023 and an escalation of conflicts with international spillovers. Robust consumer spending in several large developed and developing economies – buoyed by high levels of employment, rising real wages, and relatively healthy household balance sheets – has sustained economic resilience. In a large number of economies, inflation has slowed considerably and is approaching central bank targets, providing room for monetary easing. In most cases, economies experienced disinflation without a significant deterioratio...

30Aug

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Asia, China, Market

China’s central bank advances interest rate reform, and other economy stories to read this week

1. China's central bank furthers move to market-driven credit China's central bank is shifting its focus from the size of credit to its cost, aiming for a more market-driven interest rate system. However, the transition faces challenges from liquidity risks and uncooperative markets. This move, while crucial for broader financial reforms, is expected to be gradual, with the People's Bank of China facing significant hurdles as it works to balance reform goals with economic stability. "We are moving in the direction of developing market-based interest rates, but it's an arduous task and the road is long," a government adviser told Reuters anonymously. China's factory activity likely contracted for the fourth consecutive month in August, according to a recent Reuters po...

30Aug

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Asia, China, Market

How deeply rooted are China’s economic woes?

China’s slowdown shaped by four major problems China’s economy has continued to struggle in 2024, laying to rest any remaining hopes of a strong post-pandemic recovery. Instead of a rapid rebound as many analysts predicted, China’s reopening boom never materialised. It also appears that the Chinese government is not inclined to make major changes to its economic management and the high-profile Third Plenum came and went without significant reforms being announced. The country’s economic trajectory can be traced back to four major issues: first, the real estate market is in a protracted downturn; second, Chinese consumers have held back their spending after the economy reopened; third, deteriorating local government finances threaten a sharp slowdown in investment; and...

27Aug

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China, Market

China’s unemployment conundrum and its implications for global trade

China’s unemployment crisis underscores the broader challenges facing the country’s economic model. The combination of a deteriorating economy at home, falling consumption, overcapacity, excessive domestic competition in the labor market, and inadequate policy intervention now threaten China's long-term macroeconomic stability. These factors are stoking trade tensions for China abroad. How bad exactly is unemployment in China? Consider these examples: An increasing number of fresh college graduates are joining the gig economy by taking low-skilled jobs such as delivering food as they struggle to find jobs commensurate with their degrees. The number of people under the age of 25 who applied for manual jobs in the first quarter of 2024 surged 165% compared with the same period in 2019....

23Aug

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Market, World

Promoting Economic Momentum

Admittedly, today Indian economy is dispelling the doubts of future low growth, whooping fiscal deficit, momentous spiraling inflation, and abysmal poverty. The present economic indicators hint that the ensuing GDP growth would be pegging at not less than 8 percent, while the fiscal deficit would hover around 5.2 percent. Similarly, retail inflation is expected to stay well under limits and may not slip beyond 4.2 percent. The multi-dimensional poverty level is sure to shrink at a record low level (4.96). Understandably, this all is presumed with buoyant growth of GST revenue coupled with other direct and indirect tax collections ( Rs 48.2 lakh crores) along with the infusion of relevant economic policies. Nevertheless, the existing economic challenges including staggering growth of...

21Aug

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China, Market, World

Chinese Ambassador to The Bahamas Yan Jiarong Holds a Dialogue with Bahamian Business Leaders

On 20th August, 2024, Ms. Yan Jiarong, Chinese Ambassador to The Bahamas held a dialogue with Bahamian business leaders. Mr. Ingraham, Chairman of the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation, Mr. Peng Jing, Chief of Economic and Commercial Affairs of the Embassy attended the dialogue. Yan briefed achievements of Chinese modernization, highlighting that China’s economy has gained a firm footing and maintained a positive momentum, and the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee has conveyed a clear message of furthering high-standard opening up, which will bring new opportunities for China-Bahamas economic and trade cooperation. The two sides had in-depth exchanges on strengthening cooperation in trade, tourism, agriculture, culture, etc. ...

21Aug

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Asia, China, Market

The “Sovietization Trap”: The Reason for China’s Economic Troubles

As China’s economic growth slows, many are noting similarities between China and Japan before and after the collapse of the latter’s bubble economy. Will China really follow in Japan’s footsteps? Wu Junhua of the Japan Research Institute disagrees, suggesting that the biggest risk facing China’s economy is “Sovietization,” not “Japanization.” “Sovietization” Has Hindered China’s Development At a time of growing concerns about China’s economic prospects, voices are escalating about the possible “Japanization” of China’s economy. Although many of the problems facing China today, such as an aging population, deteriorating housing market, and accumulated debt, are quite like those faced by Japan before and after the collapse of the bubble economy, the two countries have very different p...

20Aug

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Asia, China, Market

China July 2024 Economy: Consumption and Trade Surge Amid Sluggish Industrial Growth

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released the economic data for July 2024, providing a detailed view of the country’s industrial, retail, and investment performance. The figures reveal a mixed economic landscape, with retail sales exceeding expectations, yet industrial production falling short of forecasts. The continued expansion of consumer spending indicates growing domestic demand, despite persistent challenges in the real estate sector and fixed asset investments. As the Chinese government focuses on boosting domestic demand, the challenge of maintaining economic momentum amidst structural adjustments and external uncertainties remains a significant concern moving forward. Industrial growth slows but maintains a steady pace In July, China’s industrial sector e...

15Aug

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Asia, China, Market

China’s Economy at a Glance – August 2024

Overview There was nothing in China’s latest data release to fundamentally change our views around its economy – authorities continue to prioritise the supply side of the economy, which, in the face of subdued domestic demand, is expanding export volumes and leading to growing trade tensions with other major economies. Our forecasts are unchanged – we see growth at 4.7% this year (below the full year target) and easing further to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026. Growth in industrial production has trended lower in recent months, down to 5.1% yoy in July (compared with 5.3% yoy in June and 6.7% yoy in April). While conditions in construction related sectors remains weak, output in the electronics sector remains comparatively strong. There was a noticeable slowing in real investment...

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