Market

Promoting Economic Momentum
Market, World

Promoting Economic Momentum

Admittedly, today Indian economy is dispelling the doubts of future low growth, whooping fiscal deficit, momentous spiraling inflation, and abysmal poverty. The present economic indicators hint that the ensuing GDP growth would be pegging at not less than 8 percent, while the fiscal deficit would hover around 5.2 percent. Similarly, retail inflation is expected to stay well under limits and may not slip beyond 4.2 percent. The multi-dimensional poverty level is sure to shrink at a record low level (4.96). Understandably, this all is presumed with buoyant growth of GST revenue coupled with other direct and indirect tax collections ( Rs 48.2 lakh crores) along with the infusion of relevant economic policies. Nevertheless, the existing economic challenges including staggering growth of...
China, Market, World

Chinese Ambassador to The Bahamas Yan Jiarong Holds a Dialogue with Bahamian Business Leaders

On 20th August, 2024, Ms. Yan Jiarong, Chinese Ambassador to The Bahamas held a dialogue with Bahamian business leaders. Mr. Ingraham, Chairman of the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation, Mr. Peng Jing, Chief of Economic and Commercial Affairs of the Embassy attended the dialogue. Yan briefed achievements of Chinese modernization, highlighting that China’s economy has gained a firm footing and maintained a positive momentum, and the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee has conveyed a clear message of furthering high-standard opening up, which will bring new opportunities for China-Bahamas economic and trade cooperation. The two sides had in-depth exchanges on strengthening cooperation in trade, tourism, agriculture, culture, etc.  ...
Asia, China, Market

The “Sovietization Trap”: The Reason for China’s Economic Troubles

As China’s economic growth slows, many are noting similarities between China and Japan before and after the collapse of the latter’s bubble economy. Will China really follow in Japan’s footsteps? Wu Junhua of the Japan Research Institute disagrees, suggesting that the biggest risk facing China’s economy is “Sovietization,” not “Japanization.” “Sovietization” Has Hindered China’s Development At a time of growing concerns about China’s economic prospects, voices are escalating about the possible “Japanization” of China’s economy. Although many of the problems facing China today, such as an aging population, deteriorating housing market, and accumulated debt, are quite like those faced by Japan before and after the collapse of the bubble economy, the two countries have very different p...
Asia, China, Market

China July 2024 Economy: Consumption and Trade Surge Amid Sluggish Industrial Growth

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released the economic data for July 2024, providing a detailed view of the country’s industrial, retail, and investment performance. The figures reveal a mixed economic landscape, with retail sales exceeding expectations, yet industrial production falling short of forecasts. The continued expansion of consumer spending indicates growing domestic demand, despite persistent challenges in the real estate sector and fixed asset investments. As the Chinese government focuses on boosting domestic demand, the challenge of maintaining economic momentum amidst structural adjustments and external uncertainties remains a significant concern moving forward. Industrial growth slows but maintains a steady pace In July, China’s industrial sector e...
Asia, China, Market

China’s Economy at a Glance – August 2024

Overview There was nothing in China’s latest data release to fundamentally change our views around its economy – authorities continue to prioritise the supply side of the economy, which, in the face of subdued domestic demand, is expanding export volumes and leading to growing trade tensions with other major economies. Our forecasts are unchanged – we see growth at 4.7% this year (below the full year target) and easing further to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026. Growth in industrial production has trended lower in recent months, down to 5.1% yoy in July (compared with 5.3% yoy in June and 6.7% yoy in April). While conditions in construction related sectors remains weak, output in the electronics sector remains comparatively strong. There was a noticeable slowing in real investment...
Asia, Market, World

Asset Management: Monthly Macro Insights – August 2024

Weakening business confidence indices continue to cast doubts on the global economy’s resilience. Although core inflation remains above central banks’ targets, the cooling of labour markets has not gone unnoticed, prompting a major shift in policy rates projections. China’s economy disappoints Chinese GDP grew a mere 0.7 per cent q/q in Q2-2024, the weakest since early 2022, showing activity is struggling to maintain a tepid recovery. What’s more, weak July PMIs signalled a poor start to Q3 — a worrying development given the undershoot in the previous quarter. Manufacturing confidence edged down to 49.4 and remained in contraction territory for a third month straight. The non-manufacturing gauge inchedlower to 50.2, marginally above the 50-threshold, thanks solely to the constructio...
Market, USA

US jobless claims fall, easing market fears and other economics stories to read

1. US jobless claims fall, easing market fears The number of new unemployment benefit claims in the US has fallen more than expected, easing concerns about labour market stability. Initial claims dropped by 17,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 233,000 for the week ending 3 August, marking the largest decline in about 11 months, and coming in below the 240,000 forecast by Reuters' economists. The news follows last week's worse-than-expected US job data, which saw global stock markets fall. The jump in jobless claims was attributed to factors including people being unable to work because of Hurricane Beryl, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid told The Guardian. Another positive indicator this week is that, despite an increase in total US household debt during Q2 2024, delinquency...
China, Market

The Actual Economic Crisis in China

The Chinese economy is stuck. Following Beijing’s decision, in late 2022, to abruptly end its draconian “zero COVID” policy, many observers assumed that China’s growth engine would rapidly reignite. After years of pandemic lockdowns that brought some economic sectors to a virtual halt, reopening the country was supposed to spark a major comeback. Instead, the recovery has faltered, with sluggish GDP performance, sagging consumer confidence, growing clashes with the West, and a collapse in property prices that has caused some of China’s largest companies to default. In July 2024, Chinese official data revealed that GDP growth was falling behind 
China, Market

China’s Real Economic Crisis

Zongyuan Zoe Liu is Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions. The Chinese economy is stuck. Following Beijing’s decision, in late 2022, to abruptly end its draconian “zero COVID” policy, many observers assumed that China’s growth engine would rapidly reignite. After years of pandemic lockdowns that brought some economic sectors to a virtual halt, reopening the country was supposed to spark a major comeback. Instead, the recovery has faltered, with sluggish GDP performance, sagging consumer confidence, growing clashes with the West, and a collapse in property prices that has caused some of China’s largest companies to default. In July 2024, Chinese o...
Asia, China, Market

How Chinese loans trapped Pakistan’s economy

After cash-strapped Pakistan secured a new $7 billion (€6.5 billion) bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July, Islamabad has started talks with Beijing on reprofiling billions in Chinese debt as it seeks to enact economic reforms. On the table are proposals to delay at least $16 billion in energy sector debt to China, along with extending the term of a $4 billion cash loan facility due to depleting foreign exchange reserves. Last week, Pakistani Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb was in Beijing to present proposals on extending the maturity of debt for nine power plants built by Chinese companies under the multibillion-dollar Pakistan China Economic Corridor (CPEC). On Friday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told a feder...