Market

15Jul By Online DeskNo Comments
Asia, China, Market, USA, World

Will China ever overtake the US economy?

The idea of China's outstripping the United States to become the world's largest economy has been a fixation for policymakers and economists for decades. What will happen, they argue, when the US — one of the most dynamic, productive economies — is usurped by an authoritarian regime with a workforce of 750 million? Predictions of when exactly China would steal the US's crown have come thick and fast ever since the 2008/9 financial crisis, which hampered growth in the United States and Europe for many years. Before what became known as the Great Recession, China saw double-digit annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth for at least five years. In the decade following the crisis, China's economy continued to expand by 6%-9% annually. That is, until COVID-1...
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13Jul By Online DeskNo Comments
Asia, Market, USA, World

India beckons UK and France after Europe’s election earthquakes

Seismic election upheavals in Britain and France have redrawn the political landscape of Europe, and the ripple effects could reshape trade dynamics with Asian growth engines like India and Southeast Asia in the months ahead. Voters’ economic anxieties propelled the UK’s Labour Party to a landslide win, toppling the Conservatives after 14 years in power. Across the English Channel, the left-wing New Popular Front coalition secured the most seats in France’s hung parliament. For Britain’s new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, resetting ties with the European Union will top his agenda. But his “pragmatic” government will also be keen to engage with Asia’s emerging, surging economies, analysts say. “They see Asian tiger economie...
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12Jul By Online DeskNo Comments
Asia, China, Market, World

The global evolution
of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation

The annual meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) – the political, economic, security and defence organisation established by China and Russia in 2001 – have long attracted international attention. This year’s summit on 3-4 July, however, took on a new gravity, set against the backdrop of the Russia–Ukraine war, escalating tensions between Russia and the West, enduring strains in China–US relations, and the dynamics surrounding the US elections. The SCO is seeking to evolve from a regional security framework to powerful geopolitical entity. The recent accession of Russian ally Belarus to membership represents a push to transform the grouping in Eurasia as well as a move towards countering Western institutions led by the United States an...
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12Jul By Online DeskNo Comments
Asia, Market

Pakistan, Azerbaijan agree to take economic relations to new heights

ISLAMABAD, July 12, 2024 (BSS/XINHUA) - Pakistan and Azerbaijan have agreed to take economic relations to new heights, enhancing the bilateral investment level of up to 2 billion U.S. dollars in areas of mutually beneficial projects. In a joint press stakeout along with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Thursday that both countries are ready to ink agreements worth 2 billion U.S. dollars to start with as there is great potential to multiply this figure in years to come. The Azerbaijani president said that for an initial investment of 2 billion U.S. dollars, several projects in the areas of energy, connectivity, infrastructure and defense industry were reviewed, adding that Pakistan and Azerbaijan will build strong partnership not onl...
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12Jul By Online DeskNo Comments
Asia, China, Market

China: Unbalanced economic resilience at home, rising trade tensions and conflict risks abroad

Event China’s economic activity continues to show signs of resilience but with discrepancies among growth drivers. Besides, China is facing rising external risks, from trade to conflicts in Asia. Impact The Chinese economy grew by 5.3% YoY in the first quarter of 2024. In an upward revision from the IMF, it is expected that the country’s GDP growth will reach 5% this year (i.e. slightly less than +5.2% in 2023) while a deceleration to +4.5% in 2025 is still forecast, pursuing the structural economic slowdown. Industrial production, investments and particularly exports tend to support growth. Nevertheless, domestic demand continues to be relatively weak given the households’ confidence crisis – exacerbated by high youth unemployment – deleveraging local governments and a continuin...
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12Jul By Online DeskNo Comments
Asia, China, Market

China: Unbalanced economic resilience at home, rising trade tensions and conflict risks abroad

Event China’s economic activity continues to show signs of resilience but with discrepancies among growth drivers. Besides, China is facing rising external risks, from trade to conflicts in Asia. Impact The Chinese economy grew by 5.3% YoY in the first quarter of 2024. In an upward revision from the IMF, it is expected that the country’s GDP growth will reach 5% this year (i.e. slightly less than +5.2% in 2023) while a deceleration to +4.5% in 2025 is still forecast, pursuing the structural economic slowdown. Industrial production, investments and particularly exports tend to support growth. Nevertheless, domestic demand continues to be relatively weak given the households’ confidence crisis – exacerbated by high youth unemployment – deleveraging local governments and a continuin...
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12Jul By Online DeskNo Comments
Market, USA, World

US inflation cools – plus other economics stories to read this week

1. US inflation cools, raising hopes Price increases in the US slowed significantly in June, raising hopes that the world's largest economy is moving past the high inflation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.The Labor Department's Bureau of Statistics reported a 3% rise in prices over the year to June, the slowest rate in a year, driven by lower petrol prices and moderating rents, Reuters reports. However, food prices and shelter costs both rose 0.2% in June, while grocery prices are up 1.1% and housing costs by 5.2% compared to the month before. This marks the third consecutive month of declining inflation, lessening financial pressures on households and leading analysts to predict the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates as early as September. "Barring rogue...
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11Jul By Online DeskNo Comments
Asia, China, Market

China’s third plenum is unlikely to significantly correct an ailing economy

China’s third plenum, taking place in Beijing from 15 to 18 July, is a once-in-every-five-years conclave of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, where a range of policies to address long-standing issues are unveiled. Historically, this event has seen announcements of major policy shifts and economic reforms. This time around, markets and China watchers hope the third plenum can answer a specific question: will sufficient growth-enhancing measures be announced to revive the Chinese economy after years of underwhelming performance? The party’s official channels have been previewing the third plenum as a platform for “comprehensive” reforms, but foreign observers and some academics are not convinced. Increasingly serious problems have been piling up fo...
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8Jul By Online DeskNo Comments
Asia, China, Market, World

In charts: the changing picture of China’s outbound study

Disruption to the upward trend From 2010 to 2019 the number of outbound Chinese students grew at an average annual rate of 9.5%, making the country the biggest source of international students globally. However, this rapid growth was disrupted by the pandemic that emerged in 2020. The virus (and China’s subsequent restrictive policy) caused profound damage to the country’s student mobility. The number of outbound students plummeted by 36% year on year in 2020, according to a report by the Centre for China and Globalisation (CCG), a think‑tank.  Although the number of outbound students has been climbing after the initial hit from the pandemic, it remains well below the potential trend that would have manifested had the pandemic not occurred. In the meantime, the picture of...
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<strong>Poor performance of Chinese stock exchanges reflects uncertainty and a lack of confidence</strong>
3Jul mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
Asia, China, Market

Poor performance of Chinese stock exchanges reflects uncertainty and a lack of confidence

Shanghai Stock Exchange and Hang Seng index have been struggling to perform for the past few years despite intervention by the Chinese government, which has led to frustration among investors. These Chinese stock exchange indices have experienced sharp declines thanks to brutal selloffs amid uncertainty and a lack of confidence in the market. Investors have blamed the Beijing government for failing to take necessary steps to stabilize the market.[1] The growing disinterest can be gauged from recent developments at the Hang Seng exchange. The decline in fundraising from the new listing has been lowest in the past two decades. A total of 26 companies raised USD 1.5 billion through Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the first half of 2024, which is 35 percent less compared to the correspond...
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