Market

Asia, China, Market

How Chinese loans trapped Pakistan’s economy

After cash-strapped Pakistan secured a new $7 billion (€6.5 billion) bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July, Islamabad has started talks with Beijing on reprofiling billions in Chinese debt as it seeks to enact economic reforms. On the table are proposals to delay at least $16 billion in energy sector debt to China, along with extending the term of a $4 billion cash loan facility due to depleting foreign exchange reserves. Last week, Pakistani Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb was in Beijing to present proposals on extending the maturity of debt for nine power plants built by Chinese companies under the multibillion-dollar Pakistan China Economic Corridor (CPEC). On Friday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told a feder...
Asia, China, Market

China’s Service Sector Is an Underutilized Driver of Economic Growth

China’s economic development over the last several decades has been remarkable amid rapid growth. We project growth will remain resilient at around 5 percent in 2024, despite the continued property sector adjustment. At the same time, China has relied too much on investment as opposed to consumption. Diminishing productivity and an aging population risk restricting growth, which we expect to slow significantly in coming years, to around 3.3 percent in 2029. Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive and balanced policy approach. Given these circumstances, the country’s service sector is an underexploited driver of growth—which was also recognized at the Third Plenum. Reallocating resources to services has helped boost productivity over the past two decades. And i...
Asia, Market

Why protest by ethnic Baloch has put Pakistan’s key port of Gwadar on edge

Islamabad, Pakistan — Tensions are high in Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar in the southwestern Balochistan province where an ethnic Baloch group has been protesting for days, following the arrests of some of their members and deadly clashes with security forces. Gwadar is Pakistan’s only deep-sea port on the Arabian Sea, and is a key route of the $60bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The latest tensions in the port city began on Friday after the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) gave a call to demonstrate against alleged human rights violations, enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings of people in Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest and poorest province. Home to approximately 15 million of Pakistan’s estimated 240 million people, according to...
Asia, China, Market

China’s PMI data softened slightly in July

Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs both edged slightly lower in July dragged down by weak domestic demand Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction China's July official manufacturing PMI slowed slightly to 49.4, down from 49.5 in June. This marked the third consecutive month the PMI has been below 50 - the threshold between expansion and contraction - and also marked a 5-month low.  By subcategory, we saw some mixed performances but generally, the more important subcategories trended a little weaker. The biggest decline was in production, which fell from 50.6 to 50.1. New orders also fell further into contraction from 49.5 to 49.3, as domestic demand remains sluggish. In contrast, we saw slightly smaller contractions in new export orders (48.5) and imports (47.0)...
Asia, China, Market

Xi tackles slow growth as economy ‘hits the brakes’

China's economy stumbled in the second quarter, official data shows, just as the country's top leaders gathered for a key meeting to address its sluggish growth. It grew 4.7% in the three months to June, falling short of expectations after a stronger start in the first three months of 2024. The government's annual growth target is around 5%. "China’s economy hit the brakes in the June quarter," said Heron Lim at Moody's Analytics, adding that analysts are hoping for solutions from the meeting under way in Beijing, also called the Third Plenum. The world's second-largest economy is facing a prolonged property crisis, steep local government debt, weak consumption and high unemployment. Past outcomes of the Plenum have changed the course of history in China - in 1978, then l...
Asia, China, Market, World

China’s updated playbook for reviving growth risks more tensions with the world

China’s most senior leadership concluded a major political meeting in July with a communiqué correctly identifying a “grave and complex international environment” and “arduous tasks” at home. But as expected, there was limited indication of new policy approaches to revive its slowing economy and recover from a real estate crisis. Nor did the meeting portend a serious effort to defuse growing backlash in the United States, the European Union, Indonesia, Brazil, and others against China’s economic playbook, which emphasizes increased investments in manufacturing for exports to boost its sluggish growth. The closely watched Third Plenum of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, which occurs approximately every five years, set goals of “innova...
Asia, China, Market

India–China relations under the Modi 3.0 government

On 4 June, Narendra Modi was re-elected as prime minister of India for a third consecutive term – unprecedented in 62 years. By reappointing his foreign minister and national security advisor, Modi has signalled his desire for continuity in India’s statecraft. However, among India’s key bilateral ties, those with China will merit significant attention and possibly adaptation. As the relationship between Asia’s largest nuclear-armed militaries and economies by 2025 appears increasingly distant and tense, where is it headed?  Mutually exclusive prosperity and security  India–China ties are troubled by an unsettled border, an unequal trade relationship, China’s strategic ties to Pakistan, and a broadening political-strategic disagreement ove...
China, Market

Mozambique and Malaysia report stable ilmenite prices while China’s market slows.

The Ilmenite market in the initial stages of July 2024 reflects a patchwork of stability and fluctuation driven by regional economic conditions and industry demands. Mozambique and Malaysia are seeing steady or positive developments in production and demand, while China faces challenges due to economic slowdowns and regulatory impacts. In Mozambique, Ilmenite prices have remained stable at USD 300 per metric ton (MT) for IP-3 Grade, (FOB) Moma, during the first half of July. This stability follows consistent pricing from the previous month. Kenmare Resources, the operator of the Moma Titanium Minerals Mine in northern Mozambique, has reported a noteworthy increase in production figures. Heavy Mineral Concentrate (HMC) production reached 342,600 tonnes in the second quarter of 2024, mar...
Asia, China, Market, World

Economic Survey 2024 Updates: CEA Nageswaran advices more FDI from China to boost India’s exports

Economic Survey 2024 Updates: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Economic Survey 2023-2024 on Monday, ahead of the highly anticipated Union Budget 2024-25 set to be unveiled the following day. The Union Budget for the fiscal year 2024-25 will be introduced in Parliament this Tuesday by Sitharaman, marking the first budget of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's third term. The Monsoon session, which begins today, will feature 19 sittings until August 12. During this session, the government plans to present six bills, including one to replace the 90-year-old Aircraft Act, and seek Parliament's approval for the budget of Jammu and Kashmir, which is currently under central rule. Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran has expressed confidence in achieving the 7 perce...
Asia, China, Market

China’s third plenum – watch what they do, not what they say

When trying to understand China’s economy, it’s worth remembering that the gulf between what Chinese policymakers say and what they do can be vast. Let’s call that a ‘Type 1 problem’. But sometimes they just don’t say very much at all, and this one might call a ‘Type 2 problem’. Last week’s third plenum, a five-yearly top-level meeting which on occasion has delivered important signals of Beijing’s grand economic strategy, served up a Type 2 problem. Unless you attribute a great deal of significance to Beijing’s ‘Five-Sphere Integrated Plan’ or the ‘Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy’, the plenum’s communique was long on slogans and short on substance. A lack of clarity To be fair, many of these slogans do genuinely reflect deep thinking about policy. When Beijing offic...