Market

The pandemic was a common, global shock for all economies that led to very synchronized outcomes. Nearly all economies experienced deep recessions and subsequent strong recoveries because of pent-up demand and policy stimulus. Associated with that, nearly all economies had unexpected surges in inflation, which resulted in aggressive rate hiking cycles. As the world shifts further away from the pandemic shock, there starts to be a desynchronization and more variation in economic growth, inflation and monetary policy, said Rob Subbaraman, Nomura’s Head of Global Macro Research. There are many megatrends that are unfolding, such as artificial intelligence, geopolitical rifts, climate change, demographic change, elections in major economies and high and still-rising public debt, so it is i...

With world attention focused on the Gaza war, another crisis is brewing in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, one that could also have grave implications for stability in Israel-Palestine. Palestinian banks may collapse after 1 July, unless Israel renews a waiver that allows Israeli banks to transact with them by that date. The waiver is critical for imports of essential goods into the Palestinian territories, payments of essential services and salaries, and all banking activity. Without it, the Palestinian economy could face a liquidity crisis and a meltdown with dire consequences for West Bank Palestinians – and maybe for Israel as well.  Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s far-right finance minister, issued a three-month waiver for transactions in March, but indicated that he did...