China: Chase the rally or fade the bounce?
Since peak post-COVID reopening optimism in early 2023, Chinese equities lost over a third of their value, as investors digested worries around a worsening real estate downturn, persistent geopolitical risks and issues around longer-term growth prospects. Zooming out further, Chinese equities are down over 50% since their 2021 high. Recent rumors and headlines around potentially more substantive policy easing in the property sector, capital market support measures and technical dynamics, have coincided with a sharp rebound since mid-January this year. This has propelled the offshore MSCI China over 20% and the onshore CSI300 over 15%, outperforming regional markets like Japan and India – making the Chinese market among the best performers in the world over this time. This surge has captur...