Market

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office in 2025, the looming threat of a trade war poses significant challenges to China’s economy. With new tariffs and economic measures on the horizon, the world’s second-largest economy faces a critical juncture, particularly as it contends with a property slowdown, deflationary pressures, and weakening export growth. This op-ed examines how these factors converge to reshape China’s economic outlook and the global trading system. Exports have been a cornerstone of China’s economic growth, contributing nearly three-quarters of GDP growth in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs. However, the anticipated tariffs—ranging from 10% to a staggering 60%—could significantly erode this growth engine. Economists from institutions like UBS and Nomura...

At this time of year, many policymakers want to know how fast their economies will grow in the year ahead. China’s leaders set themselves a still tougher question: how fast their economy “should” grow. They are seeking not a forecast but a target. A boy poses with a Chinese national flag in front of Tiananmen Square in Beijing.. (Reuters)A boy poses with a Chinese national flag in front of Tiananmen Square in Beijing.. (Reuters)The Central Economic Work Conference will conclude as The Economist goes to press. At the event, Communist Party officials will have debated whether to stick with this year’s growth target of “around 5%”. Their answer, which is not usually revealed until March, will guide fiscal and monetary policymaking in the year ahead, as well as the borrowing and spending p...