Market

Fulfilling Promises for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Takeaways and Future Directions
16Dec mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, Market

Fulfilling Promises for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Takeaways and Future Directions

This article examines the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) a decade after its launch, highlighting the disparity between its ambitious promises and its actual outcomes. Through original data analysis and interviews with key stakeholders, the authors identify centralized, top-down planning and limited local engagement as major obstacles to realizing sustained economic benefits. To address the problems, the authors propose a shift toward a more inclusive approach that gives local stakeholders a greater voice, as well as a candid reassessment of development plans, which are necessary to foster trust and achieve long-term success. Introduction The Pakistani government celebrated the tenth anniversary of the establishment of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2023 with...
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Economic Forecast for the United States
13Dec mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
Market, USA

Economic Forecast for the United States

The US economy has had the strongest recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic of any major developed economy. Annual inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve’s target without a recession, non-managerial real wages have exceeded pre-pandemic trends, consumer spending is continuing to exceed expectations, investment in factories is at record levels, and the United States is a net exporter of petroleum products.1 Against this backdrop, in January a new administration will take charge of government. Initial market response to the news was favorable,2 with the expectation that the new administration will be able to build on the economy’s strong foundations and unlock further growth. At the same time, there remains uncertainty around the potential implications of economic policies of the inco...
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Economic Forecast for the United States
13Dec By Online DeskNo Comments
Market, USA, World

Economic Forecast for the United States

The US economy has had the strongest recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic of any major developed economy. Annual inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve’s target without a recession, non-managerial real wages have exceeded pre-pandemic trends, consumer spending is continuing to exceed expectations, investment in factories is at record levels, and the United States is a net exporter of petroleum products.1 Against this backdrop, in January a new administration will take charge of government. Initial market response to the news was favorable,2 with the expectation that the new administration will be able to build on the economy’s strong foundations and unlock further growth. At the same time, there remains uncertainty around the potential implications of economic policies of the...
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As Beijing’s stimulus promises seem to fall short of expectations, China equities lead Asia’s losses.
13Dec mmBy Michael SmithNo Comments
China, Market

As Beijing’s stimulus promises seem to fall short of expectations, China equities lead Asia’s losses.

China stocks led losses in Asia Friday as Beijing’s affirmation of its recent policy shifts and plans to boost growth, following a high-profile meeting Thursday, appeared to have fallen short of investors’ expectations. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.83% in its final hour of trade, while mainland China’s CSI 300 lost 2.37% and ended at 3,933.18. Most other Asia-Pacific markets also fell, tracking Wall Street declines following a hotter-than-expected producer price inflation reading. The outlier was South Korea’s Kospi, which gained 0.5% to close at 2,494.46, marking a four day winning streak, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1.52% to 693.73, also notching four straight winning days. Internet firm Kakao gained over 5%, with many of its subsidiaries seeing huge gains. Shares ...
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As investors anticipate a crucial policy meeting in China, Asia-Pacific markets close mixed.
12Dec mmBy Michael SmithNo Comments
Asia, China, Market

As investors anticipate a crucial policy meeting in China, Asia-Pacific markets close mixed.

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday, after major Wall Street benchmarks declined ahead of key inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. China is reportedly kicking off its annual economic work conference on Wednesday to outline its economic policies and growth targets for next year. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index reversed gains to trade 0.76% lower as of its final hour, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index was 0.17% down and closed at 3,988.83. In South Korea, the blue-chip Kospijumped 1.02% and finished at 2,442.51 and the small-cap Kosdaq rose 2.17% to 675.92, a day after the country’s parliament passed a downsized budget of 673.3 trillion won ($470.60 billion) for 2025 late Tuesday. This is reportedly the first time that a spending...
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When China promises “more proactive” economic measures, Hong Kong equities rise by about 3%.
9Dec mmBy Michael SmithNo Comments
China, Market

When China promises “more proactive” economic measures, Hong Kong equities rise by about 3%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indexjumped nearly 3% in its final hour of trade, after china vowed “more proactive” fiscal measures and “moderately” looser monetary policy next year to boost domestic consumption. The announcement came from an official readout of a key policy meeting that outlined upcoming economic priorities. Prior to the news, mainland China’s CSI 300 index fell 0.17% to close at 3,966.57 after China’s consumer price growth came in below expectations in November. CPI rose 0.2% year on year, down from a 0.3% increase in October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. Economists from Reuters forecast price growth of 0.5%. Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific, markets were mixed as traders assessed revised economic growth data from Japan and South Korea’s pol...
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Tuesday is the start of the fourth economic census.
9Dec mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, Market

Tuesday is the start of the fourth economic census.

After a decade, the country’s fourth Economic Census is set to begin on Tuesday and will continue until December 26. The matter was confirmed in a press briefing on Monday, regarding the Economic Census 2024 project. The event was held at the conference room of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in Agargaon, Dhaka. Deputy Project Director of the Economic Census Project, Mizanur Rahman, provided an overview of the census during the briefing. According to the briefing, the census will feature 70 questions, and for the first time, data will be collected using the CAPI method via tablets. So far, 12.2 million units have been identified through listing, with detailed information to be collected from these and other sources. This year’s census will, for the first time, ...
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As tensions rise, Siliguri’s economy is severely impacted by a decline of Bangladeshi tourists.
5Dec mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, Market

As tensions rise, Siliguri’s economy is severely impacted by a decline of Bangladeshi tourists.

Siliguri, a key gateway to Northeast India, is facing significant economic setbacks due to a drop in Bangladeshi visitors amid the escalating political and social unrest in Bangladesh. The town, known for its tourism, education, medical services, and trade, has seen a sharp decline in tourists, particularly from Bangladesh, as the crisis deepens in the neighbouring country. Siliguri's strategic location near the borders of Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan has made it a popular destination for Bangladeshi nationals, who frequent the area for tourism, education, medical treatment, and visa-related matters. However, recent events in Bangladesh have led to a fall in the number of Bangladeshi visitors, severely affecting local businesses, especially hotels and bus services. Hotel owners ...
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In 2025, Chinese economic stimulus will somewhat offset US tariffs.
4Dec mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China, Market

In 2025, Chinese economic stimulus will somewhat offset US tariffs.

China’s economy is projected by Goldman Sachs Research to grow at a slower pace in 2025, as the government’s stimulus efforts partially offset the impact of potential tariffs from the US. Real GDP growth is predicted to decelerate to 4.5% next year from 4.9% in 2024. Goldman Sachs Research’s forecast assumes a 20 percentage-point increase in the effective tariff rate imposed by the incoming Trump administration on Chinese goods, which would weigh on China’s real GDP by 0.7 percentage point in 2025. The forecast also assumes that Chinese policymakers will introduce fresh stimulus to blunt the impact of tariffs. “The choice in front of Chinese policymakers is simple: either to provide a large dose of policy offset or to accept a notably lower headline real GDP growth,” Chief China Eco...
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A new dollar bloc: Reglobalization in the face of United States-China hostilities
3Dec By Online DeskNo Comments
Asia, China, Market, USA

A new dollar bloc: Reglobalization in the face of United States-China hostilities

The fragmenting of free trade and the rise of industrial policy have resulted in the nascent formation of a trade, finance and currency bloc organized around American economic and security interests. Although not formalized, the democracies in the West and their primary trading partners in Asia, excluding China, appear to be coalescing around mutual economic and security interests in a de facto dollar bloc, with the U.S. Federal Reserve as the lender of last resort. A trading bloc of democracies would include more than 56% of the world’s gross domestic product. China, by contrast, has a 16.8% share of world GDP, while India has 3.4% and Russia 1.9%. In some respects, this dollar bloc evolved out of the crucible of the 2008−09 financial crisis and lessons learned around supply cha...
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