USA

The United States may be heading towards a significant recession, with consumer confidence rapidly declining ahead of Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration. As the nation prepares for Trump’s second term as President following his decisive victory in the 2024 election, concerns over the economy are growing. His victory, which left little room for rival Kamala Harris, sets the stage for his inaugural celebration—but consumer sentiment is at a worrying low, with the Conference Board’s Expectations Index hitting a five-month low. Is the US Economy at Risk? The current state of the Expectations Index, which often signals the onset of a recession, has heightened fears that the US economy could be on the brink of a downturn. Consumer confidence plays a crucial role in both the stock market...

While official sources and the media highlight strong consumer-spending and jobs data in the US, or tout high US stock-market valuations, more than three-quarters of Americans view economic conditions as poor (36%) or fair (41%). This disconnect between performance and perception can have far-reaching consequences; it already helped to propel Donald Trump to victory in last month’s presidential election. So, what is causing it?Here, it is worth considering how market participants deal with asymmetric information – when one party has more or better information than another party or parties. Imagine you were seeking to make a purchase. As a buyer, there is a limit to the information you can glean about your options through direct observation. So, you make your decision based on your beliefs...

“We do have more room to fall,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay. The Canadian dollar has been trading below 70 cents U.S. in recent weeks and is nearly four per cent below where it was in September. Schamotta predicts the coming months will be “a very turbulent period for Canada” as uncertainty stemming from incoming U.S. president Donald Trump‘s policy proposals weigh on business investment and consumer confidence — which means a weaker loonie in the short term. Article contentHowever, that’s not the only factor at play. The outperforming U.S. economy, which is pushing U.S. yields higher — well above yields in Canada — is attracting more investments south of the border. There’s also a widening differential in monetary policy between the Bank of Canada a...

US consumer confidence tumbled in December from the previous month amid Americans' growing uncertainty over the economic outlook in the year ahead. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index declined by 8.1 points in December to 104.7, below the 113.2 expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The expectations index, which includes the short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, sank 12.6 points to 81.1 in December, its largest month-over-month decline since November 2020. That was just slightly higher than the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. Stocks hit session lows after the Conference's Board's release and then pared losses. "Consumer views of current labor market conditions continued to improve, consistent with rece...

The American economy grew at a healthy 3.1% annual clip from July through September, propelled by vigorous consumer spending and an uptick in exports, the government said in an upgrade to its previous estimate. Third-quarter growth in U.S. gross domestic product — the economy’s output of goods and services — accelerated from the April-July rate of 3% and continued to look sturdy despite high interest rates, the Commerce Department said Thursday. GDP growth has now topped 2% in eight of the last nine quarters.Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, expanded at a 3.7% pace, fastest since the first quarter of 2023 and an uptick from Commerce’s previous third-quarter estimate of 3.5%. Exports climbed 9.6%. Business investment grew a lackluster 0...

WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumers stepped up their spending at retail stores last month, providing a boost to the economy in the early phases of the winter holiday shopping season. Retail sales rose 0.7% in November, the Commerce Department said Tuesday, a solid increase and higher than October’s 0.5% gain. Sales jumped 2.6% at auto dealers, driving most of the gain. Some of that demand likely reflected a need for new cars in parts of the southeast slammed by Hurricane Helene in October, as well as healthy incentives provided by car dealers. Big discounts at many retail chains also attracted some consumers. The boost in spending underscores that the economy is still growing at a healthy pace even with higher interest rates, a trend that could cause the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing c...

The U.S. economy was rapidly falling into a recession amid the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates and kept them higher than expected as late as 2023, forecasting another recession. It then announced in November 2024 that, "Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace." The Federal Reserve maintained a somber tone but it brought the red flag down from the pole.1 The economy was rocked by a short-lived but gruesome period in the first quarter of 2020, sometimes referred to as the Great Lockdown. Only 32 stocks in the S&P 500 representing 6% of the total index posted positive returns during this period.2 These stocks increased for many reasons. Looking at which stocks did well can nonetheless show broad p...

The US economy has had the strongest recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic of any major developed economy. Annual inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve’s target without a recession, non-managerial real wages have exceeded pre-pandemic trends, consumer spending is continuing to exceed expectations, investment in factories is at record levels, and the United States is a net exporter of petroleum products.1 Against this backdrop, in January a new administration will take charge of government. Initial market response to the news was favorable,2 with the expectation that the new administration will be able to build on the economy’s strong foundations and unlock further growth. At the same time, there remains uncertainty around the potential implications of economic policies of the inco...