USA

By 2024, the US economy will have grown its GDP by 2.3% due to consumer resilience.
30Jan mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
USA

By 2024, the US economy will have grown its GDP by 2.3% due to consumer resilience.

The US economy expanded at a solid pace at the end of 2024, fueled by a generous tailwind from consumer spending that more than offset drags from a strike at Boeing Co. and much leaner inventory investment. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased an annualized 2.3% in the fourth quarter after rising 3.1% in the prior three-month period, according to the government’s initial estimate published Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 2.6% growth. Consumer spending, which comprises the largest share of economic activity, advanced at a 4.2% pace — the first time since late 2021 that outlays have exceeded 3% in consecutive quarters. The acceleration was led by a pickup in motor vehicle sales. At the same time, a closely watched measur...
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Rates Spark: The Trump administration is now a reality
24Jan mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
USA

Rates Spark: The Trump administration is now a reality

Markets may have “bought” the rumour and will proceed to “sell” the fact now that Trump's inauguration is a done deal. Even if UST yields come down, we still see structurally higher US rates. On his first day of his second term as US President, Trump declared energy and border security emergencies, but has not enacted tariffs – yet. EUR rates reacted with mild relief, but the ECB will still tread cautiously Markets may "sell" the fact, but we still see structurally higher US rates With US President Donald Trump officially back in office, the question is whether markets bought the rumours but will sell the facts. The month leading up to Trump’s election in November also saw a significant rally in UST yields, but that move faded in the weeks thereafter. Similarly, rates ...
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Singapore becomes a haven for companies and investors fleeing tensions between the US and China.
24Jan mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
China, Market, Singapore, USA

Singapore becomes a haven for companies and investors fleeing tensions between the US and China.

Its reputation of political neutrality — and strength in life sciences — is making Singapore a favoured launchpad for western investors and Chinese startups. Two years ago, Polaris Partners, the investment arm of US pharmaceutical company Polaris, opened an office in Singapore as it started to ramp up investments in the Asian country. “Singapore has an extraordinary ecosystem,” says Amy Schulman, managing partner at Polaris Partners. “It has first rate science that gets a good amount of government support. It has terrific intellectual property protection, and it has organised rule of law system that makes things very appealing.” Singapore’s favourable tax system and English-speaking business community have also made it an ideal jumping off point for international companies se...
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As tensions between the US and China increase, Malaysia links its fortunes to Singapore.
22Jan mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, China, Singapore, USA

As tensions between the US and China increase, Malaysia links its fortunes to Singapore.

New special economic zone paves way for closer relations between one-time south-east Asian rivals As tensions ratchet up between two of Malaysia’s biggest trading partners, the US and China, the south-east Asian nation is increasingly looking to hitch its wagon to its more successful neighbour, Singapore. A special economic zone straddling the two countries — along with a raft of initiatives to build stronger ties — has been designed to help the pair withstand tougher global economic trading conditions. “We are entering a new era where global tensions are here to stay,” warned Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong this month at the signing of an agreement to create the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone. “The world is becoming a more dangerous and troubled place. This...
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The Bigger Threats to China’s Economy
21Jan mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China, USA, World

The Bigger Threats to China’s Economy

China’s economy rebounded in the last quarter of 2024, achieving the government’s growth target of 5%, as announced by Beijing on Friday. China’s economy rebounded in the last quarter of 2024, achieving the government’s growth target of 5%, as announced by Beijing on Friday. However, this marks one of the slowest growth rates in decades, underscoring the challenges facing the world’s second-largest economy. Amid a prolonged property crisis, mounting local government debt, and persistent youth unemployment, China’s rebound remains fragile. The head of the country’s statistics bureau described China’s economic achievements as “hard won,” acknowledging the significant stimulus measures launched late last year. Historically, Beijing has been adept at meeting its growth targets, but exp...
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Why it will be difficult for Europe to purchase more US gas
20Jan mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
USA

Why it will be difficult for Europe to purchase more US gas

Donald Trump has threatened the EU with tariffs unless the bloc steps up LNG imports Donald Trump has threatened the EU with a trade war unless it buys more US oil and gas. But despite Brussels signalling openness to the idea, it has no power to buy — and European countries are importing record volumes of cheaper liquefied natural gas from Russia. The question of whether Europe can act as a bloc and buy more American fuel looms large over the transatlantic relationship after the US president-elect is inaugurated on Monday. “Large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!” Trump posted on social media last month. Soon after his re-election European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen backed the idea: “Why not replace [Russian gas] by Ameri...
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The flames in Los Angeles are predicted to be the most expensive in US history, with damages of about $50 billion.
10Jan mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
USA, World

The flames in Los Angeles are predicted to be the most expensive in US history, with damages of about $50 billion.

The magnitude of these losses is likely to strain California's already fragile home-insurance market. The Los Angeles wildfires are expected to become the most costly in US history, with early damage estimates reaching nearly $50 billion, according to a The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report. This figure, more than double the previous day’s estimate, includes over $20 billion in insured losses, with the potential for even higher costs if the fires continue to spread unchecked, said JPMorgan analyst Jimmy Bhullar.  Other projections, such as from ratings firm Morningstar DBRS, also place the financial impact among the nation’s most expensive disasters, with insured losses exceeding $8 billion. The final cost of insurance losses from the wildfires may vary significantly ...
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Consumer confidence declines ahead of Trump’s inauguration, putting the US economy at risk of a recession.
26Dec mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
Market, USA

Consumer confidence declines ahead of Trump’s inauguration, putting the US economy at risk of a recession.

The United States may be heading towards a significant recession, with consumer confidence rapidly declining ahead of Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration. As the nation prepares for Trump’s second term as President following his decisive victory in the 2024 election, concerns over the economy are growing. His victory, which left little room for rival Kamala Harris, sets the stage for his inaugural celebration—but consumer sentiment is at a worrying low, with the Conference Board’s Expectations Index hitting a five-month low. Is the US Economy at Risk? The current state of the Expectations Index, which often signals the onset of a recession, has heightened fears that the US economy could be on the brink of a downturn. Consumer confidence plays a crucial role in both the stock market...
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The lack of faith in the US economy
26Dec mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
Market, USA

The lack of faith in the US economy

While official sources and the media highlight strong consumer-spending and jobs data in the US, or tout high US stock-market valuations, more than three-quarters of Americans view economic conditions as poor (36%) or fair (41%). This disconnect between performance and perception can have far-reaching consequences; it already helped to propel Donald Trump to victory in last month’s presidential election. So, what is causing it?Here, it is worth considering how market participants deal with asymmetric information – when one party has more or better information than another party or parties. Imagine you were seeking to make a purchase. As a buyer, there is a limit to the information you can glean about your options through direct observation. So, you make your decision based on your beliefs...
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As the Canadian currency continues its downward path, economists see more space for decline.
24Dec mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
Market, USA

As the Canadian currency continues its downward path, economists see more space for decline.

“We do have more room to fall,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay. The Canadian dollar has been trading below 70 cents U.S. in recent weeks and is nearly four per cent below where it was in September. Schamotta predicts the coming months will be “a very turbulent period for Canada” as uncertainty stemming from incoming U.S. president Donald Trump‘s policy proposals weigh on business investment and consumer confidence — which means a weaker loonie in the short term. Article contentHowever, that’s not the only factor at play. The outperforming U.S. economy, which is pushing U.S. yields higher — well above yields in Canada — is attracting more investments south of the border. There’s also a widening differential in monetary policy between the Bank of Canada a...
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