USA

Is the job market still growing? How happy are U.S. consumers? Did the economy grow again in the second quarter after stumbling in the first? (Spoiler alert: GDP beat expectations.) We'll get answers to those questions and more this week. But most analysts predict only minor changes from the previous months. The only exception: GDP. It tumbled in the first quarter as companies stocked up on imported goods ahead of President Donald Trump's new tariff policies. As the week closes, the tariffs and their impact may still be the biggest question weighing on the U.S. economy. It's a big enough unknown that few interest rate traders expected Fed chief Jerome Powell and the rest of the policymaking committee to cut interest rates on Wednesday; th...

While the outlook still remains positive, tariffs and inflation could trigger a U.S. recession The U.S. economy was on relatively solid footing heading into 2025, but an ongoing trade war and renewed stagflation fears have shaken up the economic outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s latest long-term economic projections from March still suggest a soft landing for the U.S. economy that includes slowing GDP growth but no recession. That being said, President Donald Trump has implemented bold and controversial policy measures, making the next several months a critical period for the economy. Labor market conditions have remained resilient up to this point, but U.S. GDP growth dropped into negative territory in the first quarter. The Federal Reserve has also paused its...

“I think there’s a chance real numbers will deteriorate soon,” Dimon said. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that US economy could soon “deteriorate”. While speaking at a Morgan Stanley conference on Tuesday, Dimon said that the effects of government spending and money policies used during the pandemic to support the US economy have worn off. And because of this, the country could face an economic slowdown in the coming months. The US economy has seen more jobs and steady consumer spending. However, surveys show that both consumers and business leaders are starting to feel less confident, likely due to the Trump administration’s tariff policies, a CNBC report said. Citing these survey results, Dimon said that these aren’t always good at predicting turning points in th...

While recession fears have cooled somewhat, here are some signals worth watching. Fears of a recession are back on investors’ minds. But predicting the onset of an economic downturn, let alone the length and severity of one, is difficult even for the experts. As a rule of thumb, two quarters of gross domestic product contraction is generally accepted as a recession, but the official start date is declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research. While we often don’t know we’re in a recession until it‘s well underway, here are some economic signals worth watching to get a sense of the economy’s health. What Are the Key Economic Indicators? These indicators can help give us a better understanding of where the economy and the mark...

Economists echo Dimon’s concerns as US credit downgrade and tariff-driven uncertainty continue. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that he can’t rule out the possibility that the United States will fall into what is called stagflation— an economic term that refers to a period when inflation and unemployment are high as economic growth is slow. In an interview with Bloomberg Television on Thursday, Dimon said, “I don’t agree that we’re in a sweet spot” in response to a question about some US Federal Reserve officials saying that the US economy was in a sweet spot. Dimon made his comments while at JPMorgan’s Global China Summit in Shanghai. His comments come against the backdrop of the US facing increasing geopolitical tensions, rising deficits and pressure on consumer p...

Despite slowdown, data points to reliance of Chinese economy in the face of Donald Trump’s tariffs. While down compared with the previous month, the figure beat analysts’ expectations. Analysts polled by the Reuters and Bloomberg news agencies had respectively forecast growth of 5.5 percent and 5.7 percent. Retail sales grew 5.1 percent year-on-year, slower than the 5.9 percent growth recorded in March and below analysts’ forecasts. Fixed-asset investment, which includes property and infrastructure investment, rose 4 percent. Unemployment fell slightly, from 5.2 percent to 5.1 percent. The latest data is likely to bolster hopes of China’s economy remaining resilient in the face of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, after gross domestic product expanded a better-tha...