USA

Anti-China EV Laws Won’t Keep America Safe Indefinitely
Asia, China, USA, World

Anti-China EV Laws Won’t Keep America Safe Indefinitely

You may look at the auto industry's current chaos in Europe and think that those problems won't come to America. That this country is now taking aggressive steps to protect its auto market with 100% tariffs on Chinese-made EVs or a software ban that will effectively prohibit those cars from being sold here entirely. From that, you may think that it's all problem solved—the U.S. keeps new players from China out for good. But the truth is that these protectionist measures are temporary at best, and even the auto industry seems to get it. Or at least, the smart folks in the business do.  That leads off this midweek edition of Critical Materials, our morning roundup of tech and industry news. Also on tap today: Hyundai's online sales program with ...
<strong>China is looking all set for a recession</strong>
China, USA, World

China is looking all set for a recession

Ray Dalio the owner of American investment management firm, Bridgewater Associates which helps top investors worldwide to grow their money, in a recent interview with Bloomberg television, said that he had sold most of the investments in China. He warned that China was facing serious economic problems. “You have an environment in China which is changing and becoming a more difficult environment,” Dalio said. The trouble is evident in the stock market. The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index is on a free fall for more than two years. Investors both foreign and domestic are divesting investments to stop loss. Foreign investors are going to other emerging markets. Chinese nationals are holding on cash or buying gold coins and bars to prevent further erosion of personal wealth. “The...
US Economic Projection
Market, USA

US Economic Projection

The Q3 2024 forecast indicates how robust consumer spending, high business investment, and lower interest rates have kept optimism about the US economy intact. However, risks like geopolitical tensions and persistently high inflation remain. Despite persistent concerns surrounding the durability of growth and interest rate policy, the US economy remains fundamentally strong. While real gross domestic product growth slowed in the first quarter of this year, growth rebounded to a strong 3.0% in the second quarter. All available evidence suggests policymakers may have managed to bring inflation under control without causing a recession. Deloitte’s baseline scenario remains relatively positive. The boom in factory construction will continue to boost the economy’s potential in the coming...
China, Market, USA

Domestic macro forces have a major role in driving trade balances between the US and China.

China’s widening trade surplus and the growing US trade deficit since the pandemic have renewed concerns about global imbalances and fueled an intense debate on their causes and consequences. There are increasing worries that China’s external surpluses result from industrial policy measures designed to stimulate exports and support economic growth amid weak domestic demand. Some worry that the resulting overcapacity could lead to a “China shock 2.0”—a surge of exports that would displace workers and hurt industrial activity elsewhere. This trade and industrial policy view of external balances is incomplete at best and should be replaced with a macro view. External balances are ultimately determined by macroeconomic fundamentals, while the link to trade and industrial policy i...
Market, USA, World

US employment vacancies are declining; learn more about economics.

1. US job openings decline Job openings in the United States fell to a 3.5-year low in July, which suggests the labour market is losing steam. The number of unfilled jobs, shown in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), fell to its lowest since May 2021. It meant there were 1.07 open positions for every unemployed person in July. Investors and policymakers are watching the labour market closely, after four monthly increases in the unemployment rate stoked fears of a recession. "The labour market is still in pretty good shape, but it has cooled dramatically over the last year and a half," Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, told Reuters. "Most Americans who want jobs have them, but there are fewer opportunities or alternatives for workers who ar...
Asia, Market, USA, World

Global Economic Situation and Outlook Update for September 2024

After years of turbulence and significant volatility in economic output, the world economy is on a more stable trajectory. Global growth performance has held up surprisingly well in the face of recent shocks, including aggressive interest rate hikes by major central banks during 2022–2023 and an escalation of conflicts with international spillovers. Robust consumer spending in several large developed and developing economies – buoyed by high levels of employment, rising real wages, and relatively healthy household balance sheets – has sustained economic resilience. In a large number of economies, inflation has slowed considerably and is approaching central bank targets, providing room for monetary easing. In most cases, economies experienced disinflation without a significant deterioratio...
The number of employment added in the United States fell substantially in the year ended March.
USA, World

The number of employment added in the United States fell substantially in the year ended March.

The United States economy added 818,000 fewer jobs from April 2023 through March this year than were originally reported, the government says. The revised total adds to evidence that the job market has been steadily slowing and likely reinforces the US Federal Reserve’s plan to start cutting interest rates soon. The Department of Labor estimated that job growth averaged 174,000 a month in the year that ended in March — a drop of 68,000 a month from the 242,000 that were initially reported. The revisions released Wednesday were preliminary with final numbers to be issued in February. The downgraded estimate follows a jobs report for July that was much worse than expected, leading many economists to suggest that the Federal Reserve had waited too long to begin cutting interest rates t...
USA, World

Unprecedented Canadian rail strikes might have a severe impact on the United States economy.

Something happening more than a thousand miles away could have some interesting impacts on North Texas. In the early hours of Thursday, freight traffic on Canada's two largest railways came to a stop for the first time ever. The U.S. and Canadian chambers of commerce have warned that the rail stoppage could have a "significant impact" on their economies, and experts in the states believe it could also significantly affect the U.S. supply chain. “The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Canadian Chamber of Commerce are calling on the Government of Canada to immediately intervene to avert a disruption in the Canadian rail network. A stoppage of rail service will be devastating to Canadian businesses and families and impose significant impacts on the U.S. economy,” the groups said in a st...
Market, USA

US jobless claims fall, easing market fears and other economics stories to read

1. US jobless claims fall, easing market fears The number of new unemployment benefit claims in the US has fallen more than expected, easing concerns about labour market stability. Initial claims dropped by 17,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 233,000 for the week ending 3 August, marking the largest decline in about 11 months, and coming in below the 240,000 forecast by Reuters' economists. The news follows last week's worse-than-expected US job data, which saw global stock markets fall. The jump in jobless claims was attributed to factors including people being unable to work because of Hurricane Beryl, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid told The Guardian. Another positive indicator this week is that, despite an increase in total US household debt during Q2 2024, delinquency...
Is the United States destined for a recession?
USA

Is the United States destined for a recession?

The unexpected rise in the unemployment rate in the United States has left economists divided: Is the US on the brink of a recession or not? The unemployment rate jumped to a nearly three-year high of 4.3 percent in July, as per data released Friday. The increase – up from 4.1 percent in June, and up from a five-decade low of 3.4 percent in April last year – sets the stage, more than ever, for a cut in interest rates in the next Federal Reserve meeting in September. The jump in the unemployment rate “points to a recession in 2025”, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Al Jazeera. “I’m expecting the [US] Fed to start cutting the policy rate in September, and to continue cutting in subsequent meetings. That response...