World

How will Middle East conflict impact commodities?
30Mar mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
USA, World

How will Middle East conflict impact commodities?

Continued tensions in Iran and risks in the Strait of Hormuz have added upside pressure to both prices and volatility in commodities most notably oil. We continue to see upside for commodities, driven by fundamentals and supply-demand imbalances alongside further geopolitical risks, and think current oil and gold prices offer potentially attractive entry points. Volatility in commodities has risen since the start of the Iran conflict. The price of Brent crude was trading around USD 72/bbl ahead of the strikes on Iran, and at the time of w riting on 30 March, the price stands at USD 115/bbl. Gold prices are currently just under 20% below their all-time highs in January, with higher rate expectations since the escalation of tensions weighing on sentiment. Broad commodities ...
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Middle East conflict will damage UK’s economy ‘more than any other’
26Mar mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, World

Middle East conflict will damage UK’s economy ‘more than any other’

The conflict in the Middle East will damage the UK’s economy more than any other industrialised nation, according to analysis by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which warned over rising inflation. In the first major assessment by a leading international thinktank of the economic impact from the attack on Iran, the OECD said the UK economy would grow by just 0.7% this year, compared with its last forecast, made in December, of 1.2% for 2026. Illustrating the UK’s dependence on international trade and imports of fuel, the OECD said it had downgraded the UK’s growth in 2026 because it was likely to suffer higher inflation than previously expected. The forecast 0.5 percentage point cut in UK growth compares with expectations of a m...
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Will West Asia energy crisis lead to a Covid-like lockdown?
25Mar mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, World

Will West Asia energy crisis lead to a Covid-like lockdown?

It's just week 4 of the war, but oil prices have surged over 40% since the start of the war on February 28, reaching their highest levels since 2022. The escalating Iran war continues to pour oil on burning crude prices and energy supply shortages. With no end in sight nor any prospect of the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, several economies—particularly Asian countries—find themselves on a live slow-fire grill, literally. Energy supplies of import-dependent nations like India, South Korea, Bangladesh, Vietnam and others are measured in weeks at best and amid scant supplies, everything seems like it's going to zero. The International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed that the world could face its worst energy crisis in decades, emphasizing that the situation was 'very...
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As the Hormuz crisis worsens, China warns of a “uncontrollable” escalation.
24Mar mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, China, World

As the Hormuz crisis worsens, China warns of a “uncontrollable” escalation.

China warns the Hormuz crisis could spiral into an uncontrollable regional conflict threatening global energy supplies. Beijing is maintaining “strategic neutrality” while quietly ensuring continued oil flows, particularly from Iran. Prolonged disruption risks undermining China’s economy and its vast trade and infrastructure investments across the Middle East. China has warned of an "uncontrollable situation" amid the escalating Strait of Hormuz crisis and urged all sides to halt military operations as the war involving Iran enters a critical phase and threatens global energy supplies. On March 21, US President Donald Trump issued Tehran a 48-hour ultimatum to lift its partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow Gulf passage that carries about 20 percent of global ...
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Hormuz Disruptions and Asia’s Energy Resilience
19Mar mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
Asia, World

Hormuz Disruptions and Asia’s Energy Resilience

The U.S.–Israeli war with Iran has exposed a long-standing structural vulnerability: Asia’s extraordinary and enduring dependence on hydrocarbons from the Gulf. What distinguishes this crisis is the breadth of exposure. Beyond crude oil, disruptions now extend to liquefied natural gas (LNG), fertilizers, refined oil products, aluminium, and even helium, a consequence of the Gulf states’ economic diversification. The war has not merely shocked supply chains; it has exposed the systemic fragility at their core. The Scope of Asian Exposure Vessel tracking data indicate that 16 million barrels per day of crude oil and oil products have stopped flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, a staggering decline of 80 percent compared to the 2025 average. This decline reflects a...
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US, China economic chiefs meet in Paris to clear path to Trump-Xi summit
15Mar mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, China, USA, World

US, China economic chiefs meet in Paris to clear path to Trump-Xi summit

Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials wrapped up the first of two days of talks in Paris on Sunday to iron out kinks in their trade truce and ​clear a path for U.S. President Donald Trump's trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of March. The discussions, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He ‌Lifeng, were expected to focus on shifting U.S. tariffs, the flow of Chinese-produced rare earth minerals and magnets to U.S. buyers, American high-tech export controls and Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products. The two sides met for more than six hours at the Paris headquarters of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, with talks to resume on Monday morning, a Treasury spokesperson ...
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U.S.-Israel War with Iran’s Impact on Indian, Chinese, and Global Economies
7Mar mmBy Michael SmithNo Comments
Asia, China, USA, World

U.S.-Israel War with Iran’s Impact on Indian, Chinese, and Global Economies

As the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran rages and expands, the immediate focus is understandably on military issues such as airstrikes, missile defense, naval deployments, and retaliatory actions. Yet beneath the spectacle of war lies a far more consequential battlefield: energy and the global economy. The Heart of the Global Energy System The Middle East remains at the center of global energy. Even though there has been diversification of energy sources in recent decades, the region still accounts for roughly 30% of global oil production and about half of all global seaborne oil exports. The region’s centrality is reinforced by the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 million barrels of oil per day flow, amounting to roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply. ...
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The U.S.-Israeli War on Iran Shakes the Foundations of China’s Economy
5Mar mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, China, USA, World

The U.S.-Israeli War on Iran Shakes the Foundations of China’s Economy

The Middle East has erupted in the most intense direct military escalation in decades. Joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes targeted multiple Iranian sites, ranging from military and air defence facilities to locations linked to Iran’s missile and nuclear programs. U.S. President Donald Trump announced the launch of “major combat operations” aimed at dismantling Iran’s military and naval capabilities and preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, while calling on the Iranian people to rise against their government. Iran responded swiftly, launching dozens of ballistic missiles and drones toward Israel and U.S. bases in Gulf states in an operation dubbed “True Promise 4.” The escalation led to widespread airspace closures and a comprehensive state of emergency across the region. ...
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Trump’s tariff setback could spark surge in Chinese imports to US: analysts
1Mar mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, China, USA, World

Trump’s tariff setback could spark surge in Chinese imports to US: analysts

Importers in the United States are expected to front-load goods from China after the Supreme Court struck down the use of emergency powers as the legal basis for US President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, potentially opening a brief window of relief, analysts said.Companies selling products made in China, or using Chinese raw materials, were likely to place larger orders in the coming weeks amid uncertainty over whether Trump’s pledge to raise a new tariff – from 10 per cent to 15 per cent – would take effect under a non-emergency statute or win congressional approval within the required 150 days, they said.Trump had partly justified last year’s tariff hikes on nearly all America’s trading partners under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), but the Suprem...
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Trump says US economy ‘is bigger, better, richer’. Is it really?
26Feb mmBy Michael SmithNo Comments
USA, World

Trump says US economy ‘is bigger, better, richer’. Is it really?

This SOTU comes at a time when Trump’s approval ratings have taken a heavy beating, and the Republican Party (to which Trump belongs) has seen several electoral losses to Democrats since November last year US President Donald Trump doubled down on his economic policy agenda as he delivered the latest State of the Union (SOTU) address to the US Congress on Tuesday. Trump said that the US “is back, bigger, better, richer and stronger than ever before” and asserted that “the golden age of America is upon us”. “Today, our border is secure, our spirit is restored, inflation is plummeting, incomes are rising fast. The roaring economy is roaring like never before, and our enemies are scared, our military and police are stacked, and America is respected again, perhap...
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