The threat to stock markets comes from China and the Middle East, not the United States.
Back in the 1930s, the French government constructed what it thought was an impregnable defence system to prevent a repeat of the German invasion at the start of the first world war. The Maginot Line might have looked impressive but proved to be a white elephant because when the attack came in 1940 it was in a different place altogether.
In the past week the financial markets have displayed something of a Maginot Line mentality. They are right to think there is a threat lurking out there but they are wrong to think the biggest danger is a recession in the US. The real threat comes from elsewhere.
To be sure, the US economy is slowing down, but it is not remotely close to recession. Unemployment is rising but from historically low levels. The US central bank, the Feder...







