World

The threat to stock markets comes from China and the Middle East, not the United States.
China, World

The threat to stock markets comes from China and the Middle East, not the United States.

Back in the 1930s, the French government constructed what it thought was an impregnable defence system to prevent a repeat of the German invasion at the start of the first world war. The Maginot Line might have looked impressive but proved to be a white elephant because when the attack came in 1940 it was in a different place altogether. In the past week the financial markets have displayed something of a Maginot Line mentality. They are right to think there is a threat lurking out there but they are wrong to think the biggest danger is a recession in the US. The real threat comes from elsewhere. To be sure, the US economy is slowing down, but it is not remotely close to recession. Unemployment is rising but from historically low levels. The US central bank, the Feder...
How Bangladesh’s turmoil may affect its economic growth: Explained
Asia, World

How Bangladesh’s turmoil may affect its economic growth: Explained

As Bangladesh faces regime change, an expert warned that one of the tasks before the new government will be "to stop the free fall of the economy." It is now feared that the damage from mass violence, unemployment, persisting inflation, and "slowed real GDP [Gross Domestic Product] growth" may impact Bangladesh's economy. Saad Hammadi, a fellow at the Balsillie School of International Affairs, told Al Jazeera on Monday, “The job of the interim and subsequent government will be extremely challenging to stop the free fall of the economy and recover the state at a time when even the global economic and political orders are extremely chaotic.”Thousands of protesters stormed and looted prime minister's residence. Several police stations, buildings and public assets were vandalised and set o...
Risk or opportunity? Outcomes for China amid worries of a US recession
China, World

Risk or opportunity? Outcomes for China amid worries of a US recession

Global stock markets, particularly those in Asia, experienced a significant downturn on 5 August 2024, with the Nikkei 225 Index shedding 12.4%, its worst day since the 1987 Black Monday crash. A confluence of factors, including fears of a US recession, had triggered a massive sell-off in stock exchanges worldwide. The ripple effects of a potential US recession are profound and far-reaching. As the US is a major consumer and importer, a slowdown in the American economy can significantly dampen global demand, impacting export-oriented economies in Asia, which rely heavily on the US market. This is particularly concerning given that the US accounts for a substantial share of many Asian countries’ exports. According to the World Bank, the US accounts for more than 15% of China’s and South...
Bangladesh’s economy is recovering from the epidemic, but it still faces chronically high inflation.
Asia, World

Bangladesh’s economy is recovering from the epidemic, but it still faces chronically high inflation.

Bangladesh’s economy, which has been in recovery mode since the Covid-19 pandemic’s outbreak, has faced persistently high inflation that hit close to 10% in recent months. The resignation of Sheikh Hasina as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh and the subsequent takeover by the military could lead to further troubles for the economy that is also facing problems of liquidity and forex reserves. Even before the current political crisis, international agencies have called for structural reforms to help it take forward growth and maintain economic stability. However, the country has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world with high GDP per capita. As per its Budget, which was passed on June 30, the country is targeting an inflation rate of 6% and GDP growth rate of 6.75%. Th...
A concise overview of the Venezuela crisis
World

A concise overview of the Venezuela crisis

Tension in Venezuela is running high after a government-controlled electoral authority declared Nicolás Maduro the winner of the presidential election and handed him a third consecutive term in office. Not only has the election been described as "undemocratic" by independent observers, but the result announced by the National Electoral Council (CNE) has also been dismissed as fraudulent by the opposition. The European Union, the United States and a number of Latin American nations have refused to recognise the result, calling instead on the CNE to release detailed data from polling stations which the opposition says proves that its candidate, Edmundo González, won by a wide margin. Anti-government protests have flared up and hundreds of people have been arrested by the security f...
World

Global growth broadly unchanged amid persistent services inflation

Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. Services inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization. Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher for even longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty. The policy mix should thus be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.
No reconsideration of the policy on Chinese FDI: Goyal
Asia, World

No reconsideration of the policy on Chinese FDI: Goyal

The government is not looking at a review of the cautious policy regarding foreign direct investment (FDI) from China though the Economic Survey had backed a a more open approach to capital inflows from the neighbour to meet the manufacturing ambitions of the country. “There is no rethinking at present to support Chinese investments in the country,” commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said here on Tuesday, in the first categorical statement on this from a senior government functionary. He said the Economic Survey was a report that always flags new ideas, though it is “not at all binding on the government.” The survey last week had suggested that welcoming FDI from China will help India better meet its ambition of having a greater share in the global va...
Eurozone economy experiences some growth, but prognosis remains far from ideal.
World

Eurozone economy experiences some growth, but prognosis remains far from ideal.

The euro zone's economy grew slightly more than expected in the three months to June, data showed on Tuesday, but a mixed underlying picture and a string of pessimistic surveys cloud the outlook for the rest of the year. The figures portray a bloc struggling to regain ground in global trade but continuing to enjoy a domestic rebound fuelled by higher real incomes and public spending. Output in the 20 countries that share the euro increased by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of the year, Eurostat data showed, keeping up the pace from the previous quarter and just ahead of economists' expectations. Among large economies, France and Spain did better than expected, Italy held its ground, while German output unexpectedly contracted, strengthening fears about a lengthy crisis in a c...
What role does toilet paper have in the Indian economy?
Asia, World

What role does toilet paper have in the Indian economy?

The discussion on India's economy took a toilet break. Among the numerous mentions in the Economic Survey 2023-2024 of tax, trade deficit, fiscal prudence -- terms that some might find difficult to metabolise -- there was a very unusual mention of toilet paper. It tries to send a green message to the West, which might not be a smooth wipe. The Economic Survey 2023-24 presented by Nirmala Sitharamanmentioned toilet paper to underscore its rampant use in Western countries and its significant environmental implications. In the chapter dealing with climate change, the annual document also highlighted how substitute hygiene practices followed in Asian countries have been ignored by the West and how they can provide valuable insights into more sustainable use of resources. The que...
Asia, China, Market, World

China’s updated playbook for reviving growth risks more tensions with the world

China’s most senior leadership concluded a major political meeting in July with a communiqué correctly identifying a “grave and complex international environment” and “arduous tasks” at home. But as expected, there was limited indication of new policy approaches to revive its slowing economy and recover from a real estate crisis. Nor did the meeting portend a serious effort to defuse growing backlash in the United States, the European Union, Indonesia, Brazil, and others against China’s economic playbook, which emphasizes increased investments in manufacturing for exports to boost its sluggish growth. The closely watched Third Plenum of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, which occurs approximately every five years, set goals of “innova...