World

Asia, China, Market, World

Economic Survey 2024 Updates: CEA Nageswaran advices more FDI from China to boost India’s exports

Economic Survey 2024 Updates: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Economic Survey 2023-2024 on Monday, ahead of the highly anticipated Union Budget 2024-25 set to be unveiled the following day. The Union Budget for the fiscal year 2024-25 will be introduced in Parliament this Tuesday by Sitharaman, marking the first budget of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's third term. The Monsoon session, which begins today, will feature 19 sittings until August 12. During this session, the government plans to present six bills, including one to replace the 90-year-old Aircraft Act, and seek Parliament's approval for the budget of Jammu and Kashmir, which is currently under central rule. Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran has expressed confidence in achieving the 7 perce...
Will 2024 See a Recession in Australia?
World

Will 2024 See a Recession in Australia?

Australia’s recession risk has increased sharply throughout the middle of 2024 as the economy cools and inflation is still not under control. When the year began, inflation was in a downtrend, as the next chart shows. But as of July we can say with confidence that the trend did not continue. Inflation has now been hovering outside the RBA’s target range for months, with little sign of further falls. They want it to land between 2% and 3%, but it is instead heading in the other direction. Alarm Bells at RBA The stubborn persistence of inflation greater than 3% will alarm the Reserve Bank of Australia. “Inflation remained above the target range and had been a little higher than expected in prior months,” the RBA wrote in the minutes of their most recent Board meeting. ”Susta...
Asia, Market, World

Who are the protesters demanding an end to job quotas in Bangladesh?

Bangladesh has been rocked by student protests for nearly three weeks. Since July 1, university students have been protesting across the country to demand the removal of quotas in government jobs after the High Court reinstated a rule that reserves nearly one-third of posts for the descendants of those who participated in the country’s 1971 liberation movement. Following the High Court’s ruling in June, 56 percent of government jobs are now reserved for specific groups, including children and grandchildren of freedom fighters, women, and people from “backward districts”. Student protesters have clashed with police and members of Bangladesh Chhatra League, a student wing of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s governing Awami League party. Six people have been killed and hundreds of ...
Asia, Market, World

Emirates opens its first travel store in East Asia

Emirates has opened its first travel store in the Far East, in Hong Kong. The opening comes as part of a plan to roll out the airline’s retail blueprint in phases across the wider East Asia region and the airline’s global network. Located in the Nexxus Building, the concept store aims to provide a reimagined retail travel experience that makes its products, services, and signature hospitality more easily accessible to customer in the city, in an interactive and intimate environment. The store offers customers a comprehensive range of premium services including flight reservations, ticketing, and personalised customer assistance. The store was officially inaugurated by Orhan Abbas, Emirates’ senior vice president of commercial operations for the Far East, in the presence of Shaikh Sa...
Asia, Market, World

Press Conference: World Economic Outlook Update, July 2024

DE HARO:  So good morning everyone, and welcome to this virtual Press Briefing.  I'm Jose Luis de Haro with the Communications Department here at the International Monetary Fund, and we are gathered here today for the launch of the World Economic Outlook Update.  I hope that by this time you all have access to the document.  If not, I will encourage you to go to imf.org.  There you will find the flagship, but also Pierre-Olivier’s blog and other assets that might be helpful for your reporting.  And to discuss the World Economic Outlook Update today, we are joined by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.  He is the Chief Economist and the Director of the Research Department.  Next to him are Petya Koeva Brooks, she is the Deputy Director of the Research Depa...
Asia, Market, World

The ‘Second China Shock’ and its Implications for Southeast Asia

The term ‘second China shock’ has been coined to describe China’s changing role in the global economy.  China’s aggregation of global manufacturing capacity and progress up technological ladders appears increasingly not as a passing phase in transition to a consumption and services-led economy. Rather, it is a lasting phenomenon that is reshaping the world economy and politics. Few countries will be more impacted by this than those in ASEAN, whose economies are already closely entwined with China’s. The guiding thread in Chinese economic and industrial policy is to develop ‘new quality productive forces’, based on advancing domestic capacities in science and technology (S&T). The government work report delivered at China’s last legislative session earlier this year priori...
Asia, China, Market, USA, World

Will China ever overtake the US economy?

The idea of China's outstripping the United States to become the world's largest economy has been a fixation for policymakers and economists for decades. What will happen, they argue, when the US — one of the most dynamic, productive economies — is usurped by an authoritarian regime with a workforce of 750 million? Predictions of when exactly China would steal the US's crown have come thick and fast ever since the 2008/9 financial crisis, which hampered growth in the United States and Europe for many years. Before what became known as the Great Recession, China saw double-digit annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth for at least five years. In the decade following the crisis, China's economy continued to expand by 6%-9% annually. That is, until COVID-1...
Asia, Market, USA, World

India beckons UK and France after Europe’s election earthquakes

Seismic election upheavals in Britain and France have redrawn the political landscape of Europe, and the ripple effects could reshape trade dynamics with Asian growth engines like India and Southeast Asia in the months ahead. Voters’ economic anxieties propelled the UK’s Labour Party to a landslide win, toppling the Conservatives after 14 years in power. Across the English Channel, the left-wing New Popular Front coalition secured the most seats in France’s hung parliament. For Britain’s new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, resetting ties with the European Union will top his agenda. But his “pragmatic” government will also be keen to engage with Asia’s emerging, surging economies, analysts say. “They see Asian tiger economie...
Asia, China, Market, World

The global evolution
of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation

The annual meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) – the political, economic, security and defence organisation established by China and Russia in 2001 – have long attracted international attention. This year’s summit on 3-4 July, however, took on a new gravity, set against the backdrop of the Russia–Ukraine war, escalating tensions between Russia and the West, enduring strains in China–US relations, and the dynamics surrounding the US elections. The SCO is seeking to evolve from a regional security framework to powerful geopolitical entity. The recent accession of Russian ally Belarus to membership represents a push to transform the grouping in Eurasia as well as a move towards countering Western institutions led by the United States an...
Market, USA, World

US inflation cools – plus other economics stories to read this week

1. US inflation cools, raising hopes Price increases in the US slowed significantly in June, raising hopes that the world's largest economy is moving past the high inflation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.The Labor Department's Bureau of Statistics reported a 3% rise in prices over the year to June, the slowest rate in a year, driven by lower petrol prices and moderating rents, Reuters reports. However, food prices and shelter costs both rose 0.2% in June, while grocery prices are up 1.1% and housing costs by 5.2% compared to the month before. This marks the third consecutive month of declining inflation, lessening financial pressures on households and leading analysts to predict the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates as early as September. "Barring rogue...