World

World economy’s “biggest risk” is geopolitical upheaval, according to ICCB
World

World economy’s “biggest risk” is geopolitical upheaval, according to ICCB

The International Chamber of Commerce Bangladesh (ICCB) identified geopolitical tensions as the biggest risk to the global economy and recommended structural reforms to address those as Bangladesh looks to achieve middle and upper-middle-income status, according to a press release. ICCB President Mahbubur Rahman, presenting the Executive Board Report at the 29th Annual Council in Dhaka on Saturday, said the Russia-Ukraine war has caused an economic crisis in Bangladesh due to rising global commodity prices. The country's foreign currency reserves are depleting rapidly due to higher import bills. Middle East tensions are further straining the economy, he added. While Bangladesh's economy made a strong recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, the ICCB president noted that the post-pand...
China’s economy has grown to be worth US$2 trillion, but its industry is still in its infancy.
World

China’s economy has grown to be worth US$2 trillion, but its industry is still in its infancy.

The final consumption value of products and services designed with China’s growing older population in mind – a sector that is not yet “fully mature” according to a white paper released this week – has reached about 14.4 trillion yuan (US$2 trillion), an indication of the already ballooning industry’s prospects for further expansion. Low-cost travel, e-commerce, live streaming by older influencers and sorghum wine – a high alcohol drink – are among that population’s top buys according to the white paper from Shanghai-based China Insights Consultancy and Chinese online education service QuantaSing Group. “With rapid socio-economic development, increases in life expectancy, and a decline in fertility rates, China is gradually transitioning into an ‘aged society,’” said the p...
Made in China, for China: Can nationalism help China’s flagging economy?
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Made in China, for China: Can nationalism help China’s flagging economy?

With China’s growth target of 5 per cent this year deemed ambitious, the programme Insight looks at the factors behind its economic challenges and whether relying on innovation and domestic spending can steer its economy towards recovery. BEIJING: Living in Beijing, where “allergens are flying around”, 26-year-old Yao Yao is very particular about her cosmetics — they must protect her skin. She spends about 500 yuan (S$93) a month on make-up and has quite a collection. She has, however, stopped looking for imported brands. “Maybe in the past, people used big brands … to gain face. But the thinking of young people now is that if we use domestic products, we’ll truly ‘have face,’” she said. Her words speak to a growing trend among China’s youth: Imported goods are out, Made-in-Ch...
Sara Hsu on Xi Jinping’s Economic Policy in China
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Sara Hsu on Xi Jinping’s Economic Policy in China

From July 15-18, the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party – the top governing body of China’s ruling party – will convene for its much-anticipated “third plenum.” Since the beginning of the reform and opening era, each Central Committee’s third plenum has long set the policy direction for China’s economy. However, this iteration will happen far behind the usual schedule. Traditionally, the third plenum convenes a year after the CCP’s National Party Congress, last held in October 2022. Accordingly, the third plenum was expected in October or November of 2023. Instead, it was delayed until July 2024.  The nine-month gap between the expected timing and the actual convening of the plenum sparked much speculation about debate and disagreement regarding economic policy ...
Asia, China, Market, World

Plenum priorities that could reshape China’s economic future

The Chinese Communist Party's (CPC) third plenary session in July 2024 is an opportunity to enact major structural reforms. The CPC should prioritise reforms to untie household consumption from housing, add a redistributive role to state fiscal functions and ensure the land-based model of finance for urban development yields to a central transfers and local taxes-backed one. The CPC must shrink the housing sector’s footprint on growth and consumption, shift from indirect to direct taxes and plug the structural revenue deficits that have pushed local governments to raise cash from opaque, off-budget mechanisms. The third plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CPC) 20th Central Committee in July 2024 comes at a critical juncture for an economy beset by profound challenges. ...
Excellent technical conformity, but further work is required: FATF regarding India
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Excellent technical conformity, but further work is required: FATF regarding India

In its brief outcome statement, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global anti-money laundering watchdog, has put India in the “regular follow-up” category and underlined the need to address delays in concluding prosecution in cases on money laundering and terror financing. The “regular follow-up” category, a status shared by only four other G20 nations —the UK, France, Italy, and Russia — marks a significant achievement in India’s battle against financial crimes, the ministry pointed out. In the evaluation of 2010, there were no ratings. Among the 17 countries evaluated in the fourth round in G20, only four other countries are in the “regular follow-up” category. The rest are in the “enhanced follow-up” tent and one of them is on the grey list. The FATF has said India has re...
US dollar weakens on weak economic statistics, as the yen gains ground
World

US dollar weakens on weak economic statistics, as the yen gains ground

By Gertrude Chavez-DreyfussNEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar drifted lower against most currencies on Thursday, pressured by softening data in the world’s largest economy that backs expectations the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates this year. The yen edged up from a 38-year low against the greenback following the U.S. numbers, even as traders remained on high alert for any signs of Japanese intervention to prop up the currency. U.S. reports showed that jobless claims for state unemployment benefits dropped to 233,000 for the week ended June 22. However, the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 18,000 to 1.839 million during the week ending June 15. At the same time, new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpec...
Comparing Biden and Trump’s economic records in terms of growth, inflation, and jobs
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Comparing Biden and Trump’s economic records in terms of growth, inflation, and jobs

United States President Joe Biden and former US President Donald Trump’s first debate of the 2024 campaign has refocused attention on their respective economic records in office. During Thursday’s head-to-head, the candidates clashed on the economy, with Biden taking credit for overseeing the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and Trump claiming to have presided over “the greatest economy in the history of our country”. Both Biden and Trump could point to strong performances in particular areas of the economy, but opinion polls have consistently shown that voters have more trust in the Republican’s ability to handle economic and cost-of-living issues. In an ABC News/Ipsos poll released last month, 46 percent of respondents said they trusted Trump on the economy, compar...
Asia, Market, World

Meltdown Looms for the West Bank’s Financial Lifelines

With world attention focused on the Gaza war, another crisis is brewing in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, one that could also have grave implications for stability in Israel-Palestine. Palestinian banks may collapse after 1 July, unless Israel renews a waiver that allows Israeli banks to transact with them by that date. The waiver is critical for imports of essential goods into the Palestinian territories, payments of essential services and salaries, and all banking activity. Without it, the Palestinian economy could face a liquidity crisis and a meltdown with dire consequences for West Bank Palestinians – and maybe for Israel as well.  Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s far-right finance minister, issued a three-month waiver for transactions in March, but indicated that he did...
Asia, China, Market, World

China Mid-year Outlook 2024 : Waiting for policy

What we think This July there are two important meetings in China that may provide further insight into the macro outlook: the Third Plenum and the Politburo meeting. The two policy areas we’ll closely watch are domestic demand and fiscal reform. The economy appears to be at an inflection point. The resilience of the manufacturing sector is a bright spot, while other parts of the economy look mixed, but could start to improve. Investment implications We retain a relatively cautious view on offshore China markets. The downside is limited, but the upside is capped by a mixed macro backdrop and earnings that have yet to show meaningful upside. We expect the A-share market to be relatively more resilient thanks to lower exposure to geopolitical risks (and foreign outflows), limited F...