World

China, World

Is the Chinese Economy in Crisis?

China’s economy is showing multiple signs of weakness. Actual growth seems below the official figures; there is substantial deflation; the housing market has yet to stabilize; and the domestic stock markets have fallen significantly. Domestic confidence is flagging, and foreign investment in 2023 was at a three-decade low. Are we witnessing the early days of an emerging full-blown economic crisis, is this just a deeper than unusual cyclical downturn, or are the worries vastly overblown? How should international investors and other governments respond? At this online event, CSIS Trustee Chair Scott Kennedy will seek answers to these questions to a stellar group of economic experts: Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative in China for the International Monetary Fund; Logan Wright,...
Investors betting on more rate cuts cause China’s government bonds to rise.
China, World

Investors betting on more rate cuts cause China’s government bonds to rise.

SHANGHAI: China's government bonds rose on Friday, as market participants bet on further monetary easing following the biggest ever reduction in the mortgage rate while risk appetite fell slightly as local shares snapped their winning streak. The country slashed the benchmark mortgage rate by 25 basis points this week, the largest cut since the reference rate was introduced in 2019 and far more than analysts had expected. The deep cut prompted market expectations that more policy easing would come to shore up a recovery in the world's second-largest economy. Thirty-year treasury futures for March delivery rose to their highest level since the contract was launched in 2023, while benchmark 30-year yields fell to 2.5720%, the lowest on record. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark ...
Asia, World

“This is not the Asian financial crisis.”

KUALA LUMPUR: The weakening of the ringgit is not a true reflection of the state of the national economy and other macroeconomic conditions, says the Prime Minister. Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said the current situation must be looked at comprehensively and based on the big picture, including the country’s capacity to grow and the reassuring investment figures. He said the national economy was in a much better position compared with during the Asian financial crisis in 1998. “Why should we look only in terms of the ringgit and compare it with 1998? In 1998, the ringgit fell, investments fell, inflation rose. “It is concerning but is not the same now. The latest (investment) figures announced by the National Investment Council meeting are the highest recorded. “Inflation conti...
Bangladesh’s economy’s explosive expansion and what comes next
World

Bangladesh’s economy’s explosive expansion and what comes next

Growth has been the constant in the journey of the Bangladesh economy over the last two decades. Starting from 2004, excluding the outlier year of 2020 when the world economy was severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, Bangladesh has maintained a growth rate of over five percent or more. Since 2011, this rate has stayed above six percent as well (excluding 2020), indicating rapid growth that puts Bangladesh in the category of one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The story of economic growth in Bangladesh has two main characters—ready-made garments (RMG) and remittance. Their contribution to the GDP in fiscal year 2023—10.35 percent by the RMG sector and 4.76 percent by remittance—shows that these sectors are vital cogs for the economy. But the picture of their pivotal...
February, India’s economy continues to grow rapidly
Asia, World

February, India’s economy continues to grow rapidly

The Indian economy, which expanded at a four-month high in January, continued to strengthen in February, seeing accelerations in both manufacturing and services sectors during the month. While services sector output climbed to a seven-month high in February, manufacturing sector output reached a five-month high, firming India’s position as one of the fastest-growing major economies. The HSBC Flash India Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 61.5 in February from a revised reading of 61.2 for January—well above the 50-point threshold that differentiates expansion from contraction. The seasonally adjusted index measures month-on-month change in the combined output of India’s manufacturing and service sectors. “Growth improved in both ...
Following a “messy” quarter caused by the China issue, HSBC shares fell.
China, World

Following a “messy” quarter caused by the China issue, HSBC shares fell.

HSBC was stung by China’s economic slowdown after a “messy” quarter including a $3bn (£2.4bn) writedown sent its share price tumbling by 8pc in one of the worst falls in the bank’s history. China’s crippling economic woes prompted the Asia-focused lender to slash the value of its investment in Bank of Communications (BoCom), one of China’s “Big Five”. The devaluation of the Argentine peso in December because hyperinflation in the country also shaved $500m from profits. This contributed to an 80pc fall in fourth-quarter profits to $1bn, marring an annual record as gains for the entire year rose to $30.3bn. Citigroup analyst Andrew Coombs said the final quarter was “messy” due to the one-off impairments, with the share price fall wiping £10bn from the bank’s value. HSBC chief...
China is under increasing pressure to make significant policy changes to improve its economy.
China, World

China is under increasing pressure to make significant policy changes to improve its economy.

The start of the year saw Chinese stocks tumbling to five-year lows on growth concerns and deflation deepening to levels unseen since the global financial crisis, prompting comparisons with the 2015 turmoil that forced policymakers into action. As the annual meeting of China's parliament approaches next month, its leaders are facing the greatest pressure in almost a decade to take bold policy decisions that safeguard the economy's long-term growth potential. The start of the year saw Chinese stocks tumbling to five-year lows on growth concerns and deflation deepening to levels unseen since the global financial crisis, prompting comparisons with the 2015 turmoil that forced policymakers into action. "The last time the Chinese leadership faced this kind of pressure was in 2015," sa...
The economic decline in Bangladesh and the Rohingya crisis
Asia, World

The economic decline in Bangladesh and the Rohingya crisis

In August 2017, a deadly ethnic clearance operation, backed by the Myanmar military against the minority Rohingya (Muslim) population in Rakhine state, began the displacement of thousands of Rohingyas. By the end of 2017, around 745,000 people had fled to Cox’s Bazar, a district in southeast Bangladesh. Bangladesh, though not a signatory to the 1951 refugee convention, and despite being a country with a high population density, sheltered and welcomed these forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals on an ad hoc basis. By April 2019, more than 900,000 Rohingyas were living in coastal Bangladesh, and today about 90% of the Rohingya population lives in Bangladesh. With limited financial resources, Bangladesh, in collaboration with donor and global aid bodies, has worked hard to provide shelt...
Talks on an economic and trade cooperation agreement between India and Sri Lanka move further.
Asia, World

Talks on an economic and trade cooperation agreement between India and Sri Lanka move further.

New Delhi, Feb 21 (KNN) India and Sri Lanka are poised to advance discussions on the Economic and Trade Cooperation Agreement (ETCA), with upcoming bilateral talks set for later this month and in March. This development marks significant progress for both nations, as previous attempts to finalise the pact faced obstacles, including opposition from certain worker unions and nationalist politicians in Sri Lanka. The ETCA negotiations, which were initiated during the Maithripala Sirisena-Ranil Wickremesinghe administration, saw 11 rounds of discussions between 2016 and 2019 but failed to reach fruition due to protests in Sri Lanka. However, under President Wickremesinghe's leadership, discussions resumed last year, signalling a renewed commitment to bolstering economic ties between ...
New investment to support India’s economy’s next phase of expansion as inflation is expected to level off: RBI Bulletin
World

New investment to support India’s economy’s next phase of expansion as inflation is expected to level off: RBI Bulletin

The Indian economy continued to sustain the momentum achieved in the first half of 2023-24, going by high-frequency indicators and the expectations of a fresh round of capex by the corporate sector are likely to fuel the next leg of growth, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its February Bulletin released on Tuesday. The funds raised through external commercial borrowings (ECBs) for capex and initial public offerings (IPOs) remained robust during the second and third quarters of the current financial year, though their levels were lower than such resources raised during Q1 2023-24. The central bank also added in its monthly State of the Economy article that India's inflation expectations may stabilise and edge down going ahead but renewed pressures from cereals and proteins can...