World

Chinese exports fall 4.6% in the midst of the economic crisis after seven years.
13Jan mmBy Michael SmithNo Comments
China, World

Chinese exports fall 4.6% in the midst of the economic crisis after seven years.

Amid the economic crisis, Chinese exports saw a downfall for the first time since 2016 after global demand for Chinese-made goods slowed in 2023, CNN reported citing the Customs data released on Friday.According to CNN, the Chinese economy is struggling to stem deflationary pressures and consumer price inflation in 2023 was the weakest it has been in 14 years. Chinese exports were measured at USD 3.38 trillion in 2023, down by 4.6 per cent compared to the year before. In 2022, Chinese exports increased by 7 per cent from the year earlier. The last time China registered a decline in overseas shipments was in 2016 when exports fell 7.7 per cent.Imports also fell last year, by 5.5 per cent to USD 2.56 trillion, CNN reported, adding that it left the world's second-largest economy with a tr...
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Future Economic Prospects of Bangladesh: A Seven-Point Agenda
11Jan mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
World

Future Economic Prospects of Bangladesh: A Seven-Point Agenda

Since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971, the country has undergone a notable economic transformation, transitioning from one of the world's poorest nations to one of the fastest-growing economies. Despite the country's positive performance in development metrics like the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the external macroeconomic shocks stemming from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have been detrimental to the nation's financial vulnerabilities. In the face of the challenges posed by the pandemic in 2020, Bangladesh managed to achieve a positive growth rate of 3.4 percent, out-performing many developing countries and garnering accolades for the ruling dispensation. However, in late 2022, Bangladesh attracted international attentio...
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China’s economy experienced a dismal year. 2024 might be much more dire.
29Dec mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China, Market, World

China’s economy experienced a dismal year. 2024 might be much more dire.

The Chinese economy was expected to recover quickly in 2023 and resume its role as the undisputed engine of global growth. Instead, it stalled to the point where it’s being called a “drag” on world output by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), among others. Despite its many problems — a property crisis, weak spending and high youth unemployment — most economists think the world’s second largest economy will hit its official growth target of around 5% this year. But that is still below the 6%-plus annual growth averaged in the decade before the Covid pandemic, and 2024 is increasingly looking ominous, they said. The country may be staring at decades of stagnation thereafter. “The 2024 challenge for the Chinese economy will not be GDP growth — that will likely be above 4.5%,” sa...
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Why India can likely outperform China for a fourth straight year in 2024
28Dec mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
China, World

Why India can likely outperform China for a fourth straight year in 2024

India's economic growth (nominal growth that exceeded 12 percent in 2023, and which could come in at the same level or even higher in 2024) and improvement in currency stability relative to China are the factors in India's favour MSCI India is moving towards a third straight year of outperformance of MSCI China in 2023. India is currently our top pick in Asia ex-Japan / emerging markets (EM) equities, and we think a fourth straight year of outperformance of EM and China is likely in 2024. Central to our bullish view on India versus China's performance is the trend in earnings. Starting in early 2021, MSCI India US dollar earnings per share (EPS) has grown this cycle by 61 percent versus a decline of 18 percent for MSCI China. As a result, Indian earnings have powered ahead on a rela...
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By the end of the century, India’s economy will be the largest in the world, ranking third by CEBR.
27Dec mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
Asia, World

By the end of the century, India’s economy will be the largest in the world, ranking third by CEBR.

India, emerging as the third and "eventually the largest economic superpower", is anticipated to have a GDP "90 percent larger than China’s and 30 percent larger than that of the US" by 2100, CEBR stated in its report. India is set to become the world's third-largest economy by 2032, and will eventually surpass China and the United States to become the "world's largest economic superpower" by the end of this century, as per a report released by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) on December 27. India will sustain "robust economic growth", averaging 6.5 percent from 2024 to 2028, CEBR stated in its 'World Economic League Table 2024' report. This will result in the country surpassing Germany to become the fourth-largest economy in 2027, and overtaking Japan to becom...
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A revised economics for growth that is inclusive
27Dec mmBy Michael SmithNo Comments
Singapore, World

A revised economics for growth that is inclusive

In their book, Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future, Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba recommend that India give up its policies to build its manufacturing sector and jump straight to export more high-end services. This is surprising because this is what India has been trying to do in the last 30 years, with very poor outcomes. Insufficient jobs and incomes are the Achilles heel of India’s economy. The signs are visible outside economists’ datasets, in the social and political arenas. Farmers are demanding better prices and informal sector workers and contract workers, fair wages and social security. The economy cannot be in good shape when 60% of Indians, cutting across castes and religions, are classified as “economically weaker sections” entitled to job reservations....
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What is the outline of China’s economic policy for 2024?
27Dec mmBy Walter ParezNo Comments
China, World

What is the outline of China’s economic policy for 2024?

How does the shift towards a domestic demand-led growth strategy align with China’s long-term economic goals, and what are the anticipated challenges in transitioning away from export-led growth? The 2023 Chinese Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), an annual meeting mechanism of the Communist Party where the economic direction of the nation for the upcoming year is deliberated and agreed upon by key stakeholders, recently concluded on December 12, and the readout from the meeting stresses a stability-oriented pathway for the Chinese economy in 2024. Overall, the line of action seems pretty clear, at least from the CEWC deliberations - moving away from export-led to domestic demand-led growth, expanding high-quality production process, achieving self-reliance in critical tech but c...
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India’s employment crisis: macroeconomic causes
25Dec mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
Asia, World

India’s employment crisis: macroeconomic causes

The employment challenge can no longer be met only through more rapid GDP growth; a separate policy focus is needed on employment There are many indications everywhere that India continues to be going through a jobs crisis. Official data sources as well as many on-the-ground reports point to this fact. What are the macroeconomic reasons for this crisis? The symptoms of low labour demandAt the outset, it is useful to distinguish the two types of employment that prevail in an economy such as India. The first is wage employment which is a result of labour demanded by employers in their pursuit of profits. The second is self-employment where labour supply and labour demand are identical, i.e., the worker employs herself. A further useful distinction can also be made between wage labour ...
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India’s Economic Growth Will Increase Demand For Corporates, According To Fitch Ratings
25Dec mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
Asia, World

India’s Economic Growth Will Increase Demand For Corporates, According To Fitch Ratings

With strong domestic demand growth, it is expected that India will be among the world's fastest-growing countries, with resilient GDP growth of 6.5 per cent during the fiscal 2024-25, Fitch Ratings, one of leading credit rating firms, expects India's resilient economic growth will boost demand of the corporates, the PTI reported. In its latest research report on 'India Corporates: Sector Trends 2024', Fitch said that this is a sequel to the robust performance of the corporates in 2023 and will offset weakness from slowing growth in the key overseas markets. Fitch said that rising demand and easing input cost pressure should boost margins of the corporates in the next financial year. According to the credit rating firm, with strong domestic demand growth, it is expected that India wi...
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Five things to remember about Pakistan’s economy, politics, and security in 2023.
23Dec mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
Asia, World

Five things to remember about Pakistan’s economy, politics, and security in 2023.

India's neighbouring country, Pakistan continued to grab headlines throughout the year 2023. Whether it was an economic crisis, food crisis, mass protests, political arrests or upheaval over election dates — Pakistan saw it all in this one year. Here's a quick recap of all that happened in Pakistan in the year 2023: Economic crisisIn 2023, Pakistan saw new lows. The Pakistani rupee hit an all-time low, crossing the PKR 300 mark against the US dollar in August 2023. The country's foreign reserves with the State Bank of Pakistan (SPB) also dropped to an alarming level — at $3.1 billion in January 2023. The cash-strapped country struggled to unlock funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In a bid to secure one, the SBP hiked interest rate by 300 basis points (bps) to 20 p...
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