World

Economic Forecast for the United States
13Dec By Online DeskNo Comments
Market, USA, World

Economic Forecast for the United States

The US economy has had the strongest recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic of any major developed economy. Annual inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve’s target without a recession, non-managerial real wages have exceeded pre-pandemic trends, consumer spending is continuing to exceed expectations, investment in factories is at record levels, and the United States is a net exporter of petroleum products.1 Against this backdrop, in January a new administration will take charge of government. Initial market response to the news was favorable,2 with the expectation that the new administration will be able to build on the economy’s strong foundations and unlock further growth. At the same time, there remains uncertainty around the potential implications of economic policies of the...
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A crisis in Taiwan is a problem in China.
2Dec mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
China, World

A crisis in Taiwan is a problem in China.

The European Union needs a China contingency. Government and corporate decision-makers may be preparing for a possible Chinese military attack on Taiwan, but they must also focus on how a Taiwan crisis will impact China and, consequently, the EU’s economic security. Largely on account of Taiwan’s prominent position in the global semiconductor industry, a Chinese attack on the island will inflict trillions of dollars in costs on the global economy. But a Taiwan crisis also threatens to disrupt China-centered production and supply chains for green technologies, such as electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines, as well as create unprecedented geopolitical risk for European companies in China. The economic costs of a limited conflictJapanese observers of East Asian geopolitics ...
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30Nov mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, Market, USA, World

Asia Economic Monthly: Asia’s Trump surprise

Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. Tariffs and tax policy will likely be the focus under Trump 2.0, according to Nomura analysis. The administration may implement 60% tariffs against China, which may come into effect by mid-2025, and baseline tariffs of 10% on most foreign products imported by the US. What Trump 2.0 means for Asia Asia is better prepared this time. Trump’s re-election has less of a shock factor given greater familiarity with his policies. Asia is also more resilient, due to the ongoing trends of US-China decoupling, shifts in global supply chains and lower Asian exports to China. Yet, Trump 2.0 will likely mean more policy uncertainty, which may be a negative for Asia. There could be a larger drag on 2025 GDP growth. Even prior to t...
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Before the long weekend, the dollar declines due to a dump of economic data.
29Nov mmBy Michael SmithNo Comments
Market, USA, World

Before the long weekend, the dollar declines due to a dump of economic data.

The dollar fell broadly on Wednesday in thin pre-holiday trade, digesting a slew of indicators that underscored U.S. economic resilience while investors assessed the risk that President-elect Donald Trump will start a tariff war no one will win. The decline further unwound the dollar's recent rally. Few traders were interested in building or holding positions before a long Thanksgiving weekend for many of them that dovetails with month end. Markets are closed Thursday and exchanges close early on Friday. Moreover, revised data showing gross domestic product rose at a 2.8% rate in the third quarter, as expected and the same as last month's first estimate, did not much bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to ease again next month, although traders still leaned that way, lifting od...
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According to a survey, Asian steelmakers are failing to transition to renewable energy.
29Nov mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, Market, World

According to a survey, Asian steelmakers are failing to transition to renewable energy.

Asian steelmakers are among the worst performers at making the switch to renewables, according to a new survey that found many of them are still entirely dependent on fossil fuels for production. Steel production accounts for about 8% of global carbon emissions and about 30% of emissions from industry. A majority of the sector’s emissions are tied to its use of metallurgical coal, which is a key source of heat and carbon needed to turn iron ore into steel. Coal-fired blast furnaces — that melt iron ore and create pig iron — produce 2 metric tons of CO2 for each ton of output. That has put steelmaking in the focus for global climate activists and policymakers, as the world races to make a critical energy transition. But a survey by Sydney-based climate group Action Spea...
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Maldives abandons “India-Out” in favor of a financial lifeline
28Nov mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, Market, World

Maldives abandons “India-Out” in favor of a financial lifeline

The state visit to India last month by Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu involved a visible effort to repair the diplomatic relationship. New Delhi more than welcomed the rapprochement and signed a range of agreements with Male. India-Maldives ties were bumped up to “Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership,” with an ambitious vision document attached. Muizzu’s visit starkly contrasted the sentiment that accompanied his rise to power. He took took office last year following a politically charged “India-Out” election campaign. Immediately upon victory, he removed from the country the minimal Indian military presence (in place primarily to assist Male operate Indian defence platforms) and “reviewed” and junked important strategic agreements with I...
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The diplomatic ties between China and Pakistan have reached a low point.
28Nov mmBy Joe RodriguezNo Comments
Asia, China, World

The diplomatic ties between China and Pakistan have reached a low point.

As if Pakistan’s government wasn’t under pressure enough – with thousands of protesters on the streets and the capital Islamabad in lockdown amid calls to release former prime minister Imran Khan – relations with neighbouring China are also going from bad to worse. Beijing’s growing anger over the safety of its citizens in Pakistan has been illustrated by a surprising diplomatic spat. “It is unacceptable for us to be attacked twice in only six months,” declared China’s ambassador in Islamabad Jiang Zaidong in an unusually direct response to comments made by a senior Pakistan politician seen to be downplaying the risk. “President Xi [Jinping] cares about Chinese people’s security and puts people’s lives first,” Jiang went on to say. “He especially cares about the security of t...
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A trade crisis is sparked as the US threatens to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
28Nov mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
Asia, Market, USA, World

A trade crisis is sparked as the US threatens to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

The United States is threatening a significant shake-up in its trade relations with Canada and Mexico. President-Elect Trump has proposed imposing tariffs of up to 25 per cent on key imports. A Reuters report highlights that it includes crude oil, automobiles, and agricultural goods. This move comes amid escalating disputes over border security and trade imbalances. For Canada, the potential tariffs on crude oil could severely impact the nation’s economy, given that over 80 per cent of its oil exports are destined for the US. Meanwhile, Mexico, which relies heavily on automobile and agricultural exports to its northern neighbour, could face severe economic repercussions. Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum during a press conference highlighted and I quote “to one tariff will c...
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ADB and Mastercard Form a Groundbreaking Alliance to Fund MSMEs in Asia and the Pacific
28Nov mmBy Brian ThompsonNo Comments
Asia, Market, World

ADB and Mastercard Form a Groundbreaking Alliance to Fund MSMEs in Asia and the Pacific

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Mastercard Impact Fund, administered by the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth, have signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a groundbreaking partnership aimed at supporting micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) across Asia and the Pacific. The initiative will initially target Georgia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. It will leverage a $5 million grant from Mastercard to financial institutions, to catalyze lending toward MSMEs, with a focus on women-led or -owned MSMEs and climate finance among small businesses. The grant will support up to $1 billion of ADB financing over a 4-year period, providing risk-reduction capital, performance incentives, and capacity building for financial ...
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The US-China tech battle has reached a “turning point” with Huawei’s latest smartphone.
26Nov mmBy Mike TrudellNo Comments
Asia, China, Market, USA, World

The US-China tech battle has reached a “turning point” with Huawei’s latest smartphone.

Huawei is set to launch its latest smartphone this week, complete with a new, made-in-China operating system — a first for a Chinese company and an indication of the progress the country’s tech companies have made, despite US sanctions. Unlike previous Huawei phones, which used an operating system built on Google’s Android, the new Mate 70 smartphone will run entirely on the company’s own HarmonyOS Next. Huawei hopes the system will be able to compete with the dominant incumbents, Apple’s iOS and Android, which together power around 98% of all smartphones globally, The Economist noted. Building a fully independent operating system “is no mean feat,” The Economist noted, because it requires persuading enough developers to spend time creating apps specifically for the new system:...
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