World

Global growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming. However, notable revisions have taken place beneath the surface since April 2024, with upgrades to the forecast for the United States offsetting downgrades to those for other advanced economies, in particular, the largest European countries. Likewise, in emerging market and developing economies, disruptions to production and shipping of commodities—especially oil—conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events have led to downward revisions to the outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia and that for sub-Saharan Africa. These have been compensated for by upgrades to the forecast for emerging Asia, where surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence, has b...

Pakistan’s Finance Ministry has shared an optimistic forecast for the economy, citing a decline in inflation and growth in key sectors like manufacturing and agriculture. According to its Economic Update and Outlook for October 2024 report, inflation is expected to further decrease, providing a conducive environment for economic recovery. Easing Inflation Inflation is projected to remain between 6-7% in October, potentially dropping to 5.5-6.5% by November. September’s inflation rate hit a 44-month low at 6.9%, significantly reduced from last year’s 31.4% in the same period. This decline is attributed to enhanced supply chains for key commodities and government measures to curb inflation. Manufacturing Growth Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) continues to show mixed re...

Pakistan Stock Exchange is defying the larger economic trend in the country and breaking all records with the KSE100 breaching 90,000 points in intra-day trading. Analysts and experts attributed the phenomenal run of the bull market to the $3 billion IMF loans, expectations of a rate cut by the country’s central bank, low price-to-earnings ratio, and a relatively stabilised currency. Widespread buying activity was seen in key sectors, including oil and gas exploration, oil marketing, power generation, automobile assembly, cement, and banking.  Market analysts attribute this bullish trend to expectations of another rate cut by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), fueled by predictions of lower inflation in October with many anticipating a cut of 200 basis points...

Pakistan is seeking investments from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to mitigate its ongoing financial crisis. But attracting this critical Gulf capital requires substantial improvements in Pakistan's investment climate. Successful investment attraction will depends on presenting well-structured projects that promise sustainable growth. The government must also avoid over incentivising foreign investors at the expense of local industries, as this could lead to market imbalances and long-term economic liabilities. Pakistan’s economic situation is teetering on the brink as the country is facing a perilous financial crisis, scrambling to secure external financing to meet growing obligations. The country has received only temporary relief from a US$7 billion staff-level agre...

ISLAMABAD: The Interna­tional Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast Pakistan’s economy to grow by 3.2 per cent during the current fiscal year, falling short of the government’s budget target but surpassing projections by two other leading multilateral organisations. This growth rate is expected to be accompanied by a single-digit inflation rate of 9.5pc and a current account deficit nearing 1pc. In its World Economic Outlook (WEO-October 2024) released on Tuesday, the IMF also estimated global economic growth to stabilise at 3.2pc after “winning the battle against inflation”, despite ongoing risks related to regional conflicts, a slowdown in China, and the lasting effects of tight monetary policies and financial market volatility. The IMF, which recently approved a $7 billio...

Let’s start with the good news: it looks like the global battle against inflation has largely been won, even if price pressures persist in some countries. After peaking at 9.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, we now project headline inflation will fall to 3.5 percent by the end of next year, slightly below the average during the two decades before the pandemic. In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets, paving the way for monetary easing across major central banks. The global economy remained unusually resilient throughout the disinflationary process. Growth is projected to hold steady at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, but some low-income and developing economies have seen sizable downside growth revisions, often tied to intensifying co...